Asset: BTCUSDT.P (Bitcoin Perpetual Futures)
Timeframe Provided: 1-Hour (1H)
BTCUSDT.P
1. Higher Timeframe Bias (Assumed for 1H Context):
Based on the observed price action, specifically the strong impulsive bullish move around July 2nd-3rd, followed by a corrective pullback, it is reasonable to assume a bullish bias from the higher timeframes (Daily/4H). This assumption is crucial, as the 1H timeframe should ideally align with the dominant higher timeframe trend for high-probability setups. The strong push above previous resistance and the subsequent retracement suggest the potential for a continuation of an uptrend.
2. 1-Hour Structure Analysis:
Initial Structure: The price was generally ranging or in a slight downtrend until around July 2nd. We observe multiple internal bearish Break of Structures (1H BOS in red).
Change of Character (CHoCH): A significant bullish 1H CHoCH is observed around July 2nd, indicating a shift from a bearish to a bullish internal structure. This shift was followed by strong bullish momentum.
Break of Structure (BOS): After the CHoCH, the market showed clear bullish 1H BOS, confirming the new bullish impulse.
Current Structure: The market has recently pulled back significantly after the strong bullish impulse. This pullback has tested a key demand zone. We are looking for a continuation of the bullish trend from this pullback.
3. Liquidity and Inducement:
Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL): Prior to the bullish CHoCH, there were clear areas of sell-side liquidity that were swept, fueling the subsequent upward move.
Inducement: The current pullback, while corrective, may be acting as an inducement, drawing in early buyers or trapping sellers, before potentially continuing the upward movement. Price has swept some internal liquidity during this retracement.
4. Valid Demand/Supply Zones (1H):
Primary Demand Zone: The most prominent demand zone of interest is located roughly between $107,000 and $107,300. This zone represents an unmitigated order block (or a clear area of strong institutional buying) that initiated the significant bullish impulse. It also aligns with previous resistance that was broken and is now potentially acting as support (a "flip zone"). This is our primary point of interest for a long entry.
Mitigation: Price has begun to tap into this demand zone, indicating a potential mitigation phase.
5. Trade Setup Proposal (High Probability Long Setup):
Considering the assumed higher timeframe bullish bias and the current 1H structure, a long setup from the identified demand zone presents a high-probability opportunity.
Bias: Bullish
Entry Strategy: We are looking for confirmation within the demand zone. Given the 1H chart, a refined entry could be sought on a lower timeframe (e.g., 15M or 5M) for further confirmation (e.g., an internal CHoCH, aggressive entry within the order block). However, based on the provided 1H chart:
Proposed Entry Price: Around $107,150 - $107,250. This is within the heart of the unmitigated demand zone. The visual suggests an entry around $107,200.
Stop Loss (SL): Slightly below the low of the demand zone/order block, and crucially, below any structural low that would invalidate the bullish short-term structure.
Proposed SL Price: Around $106,750 - $106,900. The visual places the SL at approximately $106,900. This allows for some wick hunting but protects capital if the demand fails.
Target (TP): We will target the high of the recent bullish impulse, and potentially higher if the higher timeframe bias confirms a sustained uptrend.
Proposed TP Price: Initial target at the recent high around $110,900 - $111,000. The visual suggests $110,950.
Rationale for TP: This target represents the next logical liquidity pool (buy-side liquidity) and a significant structural high that, if broken, would confirm further bullish continuation.
Risk to Reward Ratio (RRR):
Entry: ~$107,200
SL: ~$106,900 (Risk: $300)
TP: ~$110,950 (Reward: $3750)
Calculated RRR: Approximately 1:12.5. This is an exceptional RRR and highlights the potential of this setup.
6. Important Considerations & Trade Management:
Confirmation: While the 1H demand zone is strong, for institutional-level entries, further confirmation on lower timeframes (e.g., a CHoCH or clear bullish momentum shift on the 5M/15M chart once price enters the demand zone) would be ideal.
Market News/Events: Always be aware of upcoming high-impact economic news (e.g., CPI, FOMC minutes, NFP) that could induce high volatility and invalidate technical setups. For crypto, major exchange news, regulatory announcements, or large whale movements can also impact price. As of Saturday, July 5th, 2025, there are no immediate high-impact economic data releases on the calendar for this weekend, but traders should always check the economic calendar for the upcoming week.
Partial Take Profits: Consider taking partial profits at intermediate highs or psychological levels to secure gains and reduce risk.
Trailing Stop Loss: Once the trade moves significantly in profit, consider trailing your stop loss to break-even or beyond to protect capital.
This detailed analysis, even with the limitation of a single timeframe, provides a clear, high-probability long setup based on advanced SMC principles. Monitor price action closely at the entry point and manage risk diligently.
Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a buy or sell recommendation or financial advice. All trading decisions must be made based on individual analysis, proper risk management, and careful consideration of market conditions by the trader themselves. As an AI model, I bear no financial responsibility for the outcomes of your trades.
Timeframe Provided: 1-Hour (1H)
BTCUSDT.P 1. Higher Timeframe Bias (Assumed for 1H Context):
Based on the observed price action, specifically the strong impulsive bullish move around July 2nd-3rd, followed by a corrective pullback, it is reasonable to assume a bullish bias from the higher timeframes (Daily/4H). This assumption is crucial, as the 1H timeframe should ideally align with the dominant higher timeframe trend for high-probability setups. The strong push above previous resistance and the subsequent retracement suggest the potential for a continuation of an uptrend.
2. 1-Hour Structure Analysis:
Initial Structure: The price was generally ranging or in a slight downtrend until around July 2nd. We observe multiple internal bearish Break of Structures (1H BOS in red).
Change of Character (CHoCH): A significant bullish 1H CHoCH is observed around July 2nd, indicating a shift from a bearish to a bullish internal structure. This shift was followed by strong bullish momentum.
Break of Structure (BOS): After the CHoCH, the market showed clear bullish 1H BOS, confirming the new bullish impulse.
Current Structure: The market has recently pulled back significantly after the strong bullish impulse. This pullback has tested a key demand zone. We are looking for a continuation of the bullish trend from this pullback.
3. Liquidity and Inducement:
Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL): Prior to the bullish CHoCH, there were clear areas of sell-side liquidity that were swept, fueling the subsequent upward move.
Inducement: The current pullback, while corrective, may be acting as an inducement, drawing in early buyers or trapping sellers, before potentially continuing the upward movement. Price has swept some internal liquidity during this retracement.
4. Valid Demand/Supply Zones (1H):
Primary Demand Zone: The most prominent demand zone of interest is located roughly between $107,000 and $107,300. This zone represents an unmitigated order block (or a clear area of strong institutional buying) that initiated the significant bullish impulse. It also aligns with previous resistance that was broken and is now potentially acting as support (a "flip zone"). This is our primary point of interest for a long entry.
Mitigation: Price has begun to tap into this demand zone, indicating a potential mitigation phase.
5. Trade Setup Proposal (High Probability Long Setup):
Considering the assumed higher timeframe bullish bias and the current 1H structure, a long setup from the identified demand zone presents a high-probability opportunity.
Bias: Bullish
Entry Strategy: We are looking for confirmation within the demand zone. Given the 1H chart, a refined entry could be sought on a lower timeframe (e.g., 15M or 5M) for further confirmation (e.g., an internal CHoCH, aggressive entry within the order block). However, based on the provided 1H chart:
Proposed Entry Price: Around $107,150 - $107,250. This is within the heart of the unmitigated demand zone. The visual suggests an entry around $107,200.
Stop Loss (SL): Slightly below the low of the demand zone/order block, and crucially, below any structural low that would invalidate the bullish short-term structure.
Proposed SL Price: Around $106,750 - $106,900. The visual places the SL at approximately $106,900. This allows for some wick hunting but protects capital if the demand fails.
Target (TP): We will target the high of the recent bullish impulse, and potentially higher if the higher timeframe bias confirms a sustained uptrend.
Proposed TP Price: Initial target at the recent high around $110,900 - $111,000. The visual suggests $110,950.
Rationale for TP: This target represents the next logical liquidity pool (buy-side liquidity) and a significant structural high that, if broken, would confirm further bullish continuation.
Risk to Reward Ratio (RRR):
Entry: ~$107,200
SL: ~$106,900 (Risk: $300)
TP: ~$110,950 (Reward: $3750)
Calculated RRR: Approximately 1:12.5. This is an exceptional RRR and highlights the potential of this setup.
6. Important Considerations & Trade Management:
Confirmation: While the 1H demand zone is strong, for institutional-level entries, further confirmation on lower timeframes (e.g., a CHoCH or clear bullish momentum shift on the 5M/15M chart once price enters the demand zone) would be ideal.
Market News/Events: Always be aware of upcoming high-impact economic news (e.g., CPI, FOMC minutes, NFP) that could induce high volatility and invalidate technical setups. For crypto, major exchange news, regulatory announcements, or large whale movements can also impact price. As of Saturday, July 5th, 2025, there are no immediate high-impact economic data releases on the calendar for this weekend, but traders should always check the economic calendar for the upcoming week.
Partial Take Profits: Consider taking partial profits at intermediate highs or psychological levels to secure gains and reduce risk.
Trailing Stop Loss: Once the trade moves significantly in profit, consider trailing your stop loss to break-even or beyond to protect capital.
This detailed analysis, even with the limitation of a single timeframe, provides a clear, high-probability long setup based on advanced SMC principles. Monitor price action closely at the entry point and manage risk diligently.
Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a buy or sell recommendation or financial advice. All trading decisions must be made based on individual analysis, proper risk management, and careful consideration of market conditions by the trader themselves. As an AI model, I bear no financial responsibility for the outcomes of your trades.
Trade active
"I concur with the general sentiment on the current trend. My conviction for a long entry strengthens should price retrace into my identified demand zone. However, it's prudent to acknowledge the possibility of a new CHoCH forming higher, without a pullback to our specific area of interest."
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.