Bitcoin’s recent upswing encountered strong supply at a major confluence zone, setting the stage for a corrective phase. Below is a purely technical breakdown of the reversal signals and key levels to watch:
1. Confluent Resistance Barrier
Trend Channel Upper Boundary: BTC respected the descending channel ceiling drawn since November 2024, stalling gains at this dynamic resistance.
Volume Profile Node: The Point of Control for the November–April range coincides exactly with this ceiling, creating a heavy supply node where aggressive selling pressure has materialized.
2. Bearish Shark Harmonic Activation
Harmonic Geometry: The completed Shark pattern (0XA–AB–BC–CD) landed precisely at the resistance confluence, triggering a shift from impulsive to corrective price behavior.
Fibonacci Alignment: The D-leg retracement aligns with the 0.886 extension of the XA leg, reinforcing the pattern’s invalidation zone and confirming the reversal trigger.
3. Critical Downside Pivot
Key Swing Low – $91,648: A close beneath this level on elevated volume would validate the bearish scenario, initiating a cascading stop-run that could drive BTC toward the $86,000 structural support.
Stop-Hunt Risk: Traders who entered near recent highs likely have stops clustered just below the swing low; their liquidation would accelerate downside velocity.
Risk and Trade Management
Entry Zone: Aggressive short entries may be considered on a failure to retake the channel top, with initial targets near the POC support level.
Invalidation Point: A sustained reclaim of the channel resistance and POC region would negate the bearish thesis, shifting bias back to neutral or bullish.
Summary: Bitcoin’s clear rejection at overlapping resistance and the activation of the bearish Shark harmonic signal a high-probability pullback. Confirmation hinges on the swing-low break; otherwise, watch for a potential re-test of the confluence zone.
1. Confluent Resistance Barrier
Trend Channel Upper Boundary: BTC respected the descending channel ceiling drawn since November 2024, stalling gains at this dynamic resistance.
Volume Profile Node: The Point of Control for the November–April range coincides exactly with this ceiling, creating a heavy supply node where aggressive selling pressure has materialized.
2. Bearish Shark Harmonic Activation
Harmonic Geometry: The completed Shark pattern (0XA–AB–BC–CD) landed precisely at the resistance confluence, triggering a shift from impulsive to corrective price behavior.
Fibonacci Alignment: The D-leg retracement aligns with the 0.886 extension of the XA leg, reinforcing the pattern’s invalidation zone and confirming the reversal trigger.
3. Critical Downside Pivot
Key Swing Low – $91,648: A close beneath this level on elevated volume would validate the bearish scenario, initiating a cascading stop-run that could drive BTC toward the $86,000 structural support.
Stop-Hunt Risk: Traders who entered near recent highs likely have stops clustered just below the swing low; their liquidation would accelerate downside velocity.
Risk and Trade Management
Entry Zone: Aggressive short entries may be considered on a failure to retake the channel top, with initial targets near the POC support level.
Invalidation Point: A sustained reclaim of the channel resistance and POC region would negate the bearish thesis, shifting bias back to neutral or bullish.
Summary: Bitcoin’s clear rejection at overlapping resistance and the activation of the bearish Shark harmonic signal a high-probability pullback. Confirmation hinges on the swing-low break; otherwise, watch for a potential re-test of the confluence zone.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.