Shorting the Rejection-Retest at 94 350 USDT into the FVG on BTC
Description
On the 15-minute chart, BTCUSDT is in a larger up-trend (higher highs, higher lows) that has paused in a tight digestion range. Volume has contracted into this zone, signaling indecision rather than conviction. This trade idea teaches how to combine structure, liquidity context, and precise execution for a high-odds short.
Structure Flailing at 93 223 USDT
Rejection-Liquidity Zone near 94 000–94 800 USDT
Entry Candle at 94 350 USDT
Stop-Loss at 94 800 USDT
Take-Profit at 92 150 USDT
Risk & Reward
Backup Plan – Bullish Flip
Higher-Timeframe Pivot Targets (50 USDT Increments)
Key Terms & Why They Matter
On the 15-minute chart, BTCUSDT is in a larger up-trend (higher highs, higher lows) that has paused in a tight digestion range. Volume has contracted into this zone, signaling indecision rather than conviction. This trade idea teaches how to combine structure, liquidity context, and precise execution for a high-odds short.
Structure Flailing at 93 223 USDT
- Price tested 93 223 twice and was rejected both times. That “Double-Tap Top” defines clear resistance and a reference for my entry zone.
Rejection-Liquidity Zone near 94 000–94 800 USDT
- I plotted the volume-profile POC and VAH/VAL to show institutional liquidity. The sweep up into this range creates a magnet for stops—my “Rejection Liquidity.”
Entry Candle at 94 350 USDT
- After the wick-high sweep, the very next candle closed bearishly at 94 350 USDT (the swing-high close). I place my limit-sell at 94 350 so I trade the confirmed retest and rejection.
Stop-Loss at 94 800 USDT
- The high of the rejection wick (94 800) sets my stop. Any close above that level invalidates the short thesis and protects capital.
Take-Profit at 92 150 USDT
- I target the filled Fair-Value Gap at 92 150, which aligns perfectly with the prior swing-low demand zone—an ideal spot for price to pause or reverse.
Risk & Reward
- This setup risks 4 500 ticks (94 800 – 94 350) to capture 22 000 ticks (94 350 – 92 150), yielding an R : R of approximately 1 : 4.9. That asymmetric payoff is only available when entry, stop, and target align with proven structural and liquidity pivots.
Backup Plan – Bullish Flip
- If price closes above 94 800 USDT, I abandon the short and await a retest of 94 800 as support. I look for a bullish rejection candle on rising volume, confirm it against my 50-bar HTF swing-high or session POC, then flip long.
Higher-Timeframe Pivot Targets (50 USDT Increments)
- 94 250 USDT
- 98 600 USDT
- 105 700 USDT
- 108 300 USDT
Key Terms & Why They Matter
- DTT (Double-Tap Top): shows exhaustion at a key swing high
- FVG (Fair-Value Gap): highlights imbalances that price often fills
- POC/VAH/VAL: map where big traders accumulated or distributed
- RL (Rejection Liquidity): stop-hunt zones ripe for reversals
Trade active
Trade Entry not Met, Trade Invalidated and Open Order Cancelled! Order cancelled
Trade Entry not Met, Trade Invalidated and Open Order Cancelled!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.