__________________________________________________________________________________
Technical Overview – Summary Points
__________________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________________
Strategic Summary
__________________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________________
Multi-Timeframe Analysis
__________________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________________
Macro / Fundamental analysis
__________________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________________
Final synthesis: Bias, Opportunities, Risks
__________________________________________________________________________________
Technical Overview – Summary Points
__________________________________________________________________________________
- Momentum: Strong bullish signal across sector indicators (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator), especially on daily and 12H. Momentum remains robust within consolidation.
- Support/Resistance : Key zone at 104429–102600 (short- and long-term pivots); major resistance at 106000–109950.
- Volume : Normal to high, with peaks at major supports on 1H/2H (potential sign of absorption/defensive buying).
- Behavior across timeframes :
- ISPD neutral on most TFs, only 2H gives a buy signal (possible tactical bounce).
- All LTFs (≤1H) are down, HTFs (≥1D) are up → corrective structure, awaiting catalyst.
- ISPD neutral on most TFs, only 2H gives a buy signal (possible tactical bounce).
__________________________________________________________________________________
Strategic Summary
__________________________________________________________________________________
- Overall bias : Underlying bullish, but market consolidates on key technical zones.
- Opportunities : Swing buy at 104429/102600, tight stop below 100k, take profit 109950+.
- Risk zones : Clear break below 100350/100000 invalidates the setup (risk-off or tactical short).
- Macro catalysts : FOMC, Iran–Israel tensions, economic calendar (monitor Jobless Claims, Crude, Fed statement).
- Action plan :
- Capital preservation before FOMC.
- Tactical entries only on key support; tight stops, prudent sizing.
- No breakout chasing without macro/fundamental validation.
- Hedge/volatility play via options possible (IV low, caution for post-event spike).
- Capital preservation before FOMC.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Multi-Timeframe Analysis
__________________________________________________________________________________
- 1D/12H/6H :Supports: 104429, 102626, 100353.
Resistances: 106000–109952.
Risk On / Risk Off Indicator = Strong Buy.
No extreme volume, ISPD neutral; mature range.
HTF consolidation, bullish underlying momentum. - 4H/2H :Key zone at 104429–102600 (technical defense); 2H is the first true behavioral buy signal.
Very high volume at support, favoring a "spike bounce" scenario.
“Up” confluence on Risk On / Risk Off Indicator, volume, and ISPD for short-term bounce.
MTFTI: 2H is one of the “Up” TFs; LTFs remain Down. - 1H/30min/15min :
- Structurally bearish, elevated volume (absorption/protection) on 1H.
- No behavioral excesses.
- Intraday weakness but supports tested and defended.
- Structurally bearish, elevated volume (absorption/protection) on 1H.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Macro / Fundamental analysis
__________________________________________________________________________________
- Market in wait-and-see mode : FOMC upcoming, no hike expected but high impact from tone/forward guidance (increased volatility risk).
- Geopolitics : Iran–Israel escalation, risk-off climate, nervous risk assets.
- On-chain : Supports tested (STH ~97.6k). Persistent LTH accumulation. Low option IV → underpriced volatility risk.
- Risk/Reward swing : 2:1/3:1 buying 104429–102600, stop < 100k, take profit 109950+.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Final synthesis: Bias, Opportunities, Risks
__________________________________________________________________________________
- Directional bias : Bullish on HTF, neutral/undecided on short-term. Wait-and-see until strong catalyst confirmed (FOMC, geopolitical de-escalation).
- Opportunities : Tactical buy on supports, profit-taking on resistance or confirmed breakout.
- Risks : Invalidation below 100k; sudden spike in FOMC/Israel–Iran escalation = risk-off or selloff.
- Recommended action :
- Protect capital before FOMC.
- Swing tactical entry only on confirmed support.
- No breakout chasing without macro validation.
- Leverage potential post-FOMC vol spike via options.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.