Macroeconomic and policy impact
Trump tariff policy: The United States announced that it would impose 25%-40% tariffs on Japan, South Korea and other countries (effective on August 1), triggering market risk aversion, and Bitcoin once fell to the support level of $107,5004.
Federal Reserve policy: The market is concerned about the possibility of a rate cut in July. If the Fed turns dovish, it may boost the price of Bitcoin by 17.
Musk and Trump conflict: The public dispute between the two sides over the "Big and Beautiful Act" caused short-term fluctuations in the crypto market, with DOGE leading the decline and BTC once under pressure by 2.
Bitcoin is currently in the key liquidity-intensive area of 105,000-108,800 US dollars, and the long and short sides are fiercely competing here:
Above $108,800: A large number of short stop-loss orders are gathered, and a breakthrough may trigger a chain of short liquidations, pushing the price towards $113,000-130,000.
Below $107,100: There are dense long leveraged positions. A break below this level may trigger forced liquidation of long positions, causing the price to fall back to the $92,000-$95,000 support zone 1.
Technical aspects and market structure
Breakout-retracement mode: If the weekly close stabilizes at $107,720, the upward trend may be confirmed, with the target pointing to $110,000-$130,000. The historical analogy of the "step-up" structure in Q4 2024 indicates that the bull market may continue.
Short-term resistance and support:
Resistance level: $108,500 (if it breaks through, it may test $110,000).
Support level: $107,500 (if it breaks below, it may drop to $106,500)410.
Bitcoin has recently fluctuated between $106,000 and $110,000, with ETF inflows and long-term holders selling forming a seesaw 57.
Summary
Bitcoin is currently in a critical game range. The short-term trend may be determined by the liquidation trigger point (107,100-108,800 US dollars), and is also affected by macro policies (tariffs, the Federal Reserve) and institutional capital flows. The medium- and long-term bullish expectations are strong, but attention should be paid to high leverage risks and changes in market sentiment.
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Free Signals：t.me/+CXftl_-QHEo2Yzc0
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.