Weekly Perspective For The Pump
Updated
We are all obsessed with the direction of price which we can't control and don't care enough attention to what we can control, such as our position sizing and action plan if the certain targets are met. That's why i'm always providing my bullish targets and i'll review these on a weekly perspective.
We just got a pump on the last 2 hours before daily close with low volume (does that look eal to you?). This is the expected short term move i mentioned in my previous post.
Remember, price follows liquidation and that's what's happening to late shorters now, unlike me - the early shorter at 40k :) They are getting squeezed because they sold at support in a red candle. So always sell on a green candle when everyone is bullish at the top!
Right now the first resistance above sits at historically strong weekly level 34.678 and the support below at February Low 32.328
And the game is about the monthly close.
If we get monthly close:
- Above Feb Low 32.328, i'll consider this a sign of strength - NOT before.
- Above 34.678 the weekly resistance, i'll consider this bullish - NOT before.
But we still have one week until the monthly close. If we get above May Close at 37.253 or even 36.500 next week, it's a bullish sign.
If these happen to be true, then the re-distribution may get invalidated.
While i don't think these will happen, it still can happen and i can't control this. But i have an action plan based on these targets and that's what matters.
Apart from the bullish targets, you want to look at the relationship between UTAD (Upthrust after distribution) in April and LPSY (Last Point Of Supply) in May. Everybody turned bullish by the end of April and thought we were going to 100k. In reality, this was the LPSY in the overbought condition before the huge markdown.
Now look at the UTAD in June. The same LPSY could be in the making before going down to 20k's if not lower.
I took the UTAD levels as the touching points of the down trend channel (blue zone) and extended up to LPSY for the overbought area (gray zone). That is why i'm not turning bullish unless the price gets above the gray zone and it's a moving target.
Best.
PS. We got a reversal bar on the P&f chart as well. I'll send an update from that post.
We just got a pump on the last 2 hours before daily close with low volume (does that look eal to you?). This is the expected short term move i mentioned in my previous post.
Remember, price follows liquidation and that's what's happening to late shorters now, unlike me - the early shorter at 40k :) They are getting squeezed because they sold at support in a red candle. So always sell on a green candle when everyone is bullish at the top!
Right now the first resistance above sits at historically strong weekly level 34.678 and the support below at February Low 32.328
And the game is about the monthly close.
If we get monthly close:
- Above Feb Low 32.328, i'll consider this a sign of strength - NOT before.
- Above 34.678 the weekly resistance, i'll consider this bullish - NOT before.
But we still have one week until the monthly close. If we get above May Close at 37.253 or even 36.500 next week, it's a bullish sign.
If these happen to be true, then the re-distribution may get invalidated.
While i don't think these will happen, it still can happen and i can't control this. But i have an action plan based on these targets and that's what matters.
Apart from the bullish targets, you want to look at the relationship between UTAD (Upthrust after distribution) in April and LPSY (Last Point Of Supply) in May. Everybody turned bullish by the end of April and thought we were going to 100k. In reality, this was the LPSY in the overbought condition before the huge markdown.
Now look at the UTAD in June. The same LPSY could be in the making before going down to 20k's if not lower.
I took the UTAD levels as the touching points of the down trend channel (blue zone) and extended up to LPSY for the overbought area (gray zone). That is why i'm not turning bullish unless the price gets above the gray zone and it's a moving target.
Best.
PS. We got a reversal bar on the P&f chart as well. I'll send an update from that post.
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