Bitcoin heading to test the support level again soon, breakout?
Take noted the below is not an investment advise, bet at your own risk. I am solely not responsible for any of your loses in money or assets.
The Current Bitcoin price is USDT26221.12 as of 26 September 2023.
The Bitcoin have potential to drop to USDT24292.54 range in the coming 1.5 months before the Fed's FOMC in November 2023.
The price will hover between USDT24292.54 to about USDT29240.33 within this period.
Potential strong tailwind is the pause of US Fed's rate hike this coming November 2023. This will drive and test the resistance level at USDT29240.33. If there is a breakout then the next level of stronger resistance based on the dynamic resistance will be at USDT31334.78. If there is a breakout at USD31K plus then the next power strong 1 week resistance at USDT63665.58
Potential strong headwind will drive the market to around USDT24292.54 because of higher rate for longer by Fed's US. If next 1.5 months down the road if there is other or fews strong headwinds appears then the price might breakout from USDT24292.54 and head lower to a super stronger support of 1 month chart at USDT14576.47. This is highly unlikely to happen withing next few months as the Fed's is data dependent and also depend of the next 6 months' data to say that they will maintain the Fed's funds rate for longer. Still I think is not clear at the moment that the Fed's need higher for longer for 2 years.
USDT14576.47 is a very strong support level based on the 1-month chart of Bitcoin. I would only start buying a little at USDT24292.54 and reassess for 2 to 3 weeks before buying more. If by the time Bitcoin reach USDT24292.54 and the S&P most likely have no reach 3900. The Bitcoin might go lower following the S&P 500 going to 3900.
Based on current market condition it is highly unlikely to get a low that surpasses last year October 2022 bottom. However, the future for a US recession is unclear currently as there is both camp of soft landing and a recession.
The Current Bitcoin price is USDT26221.12 as of 26 September 2023.
The Bitcoin have potential to drop to USDT24292.54 range in the coming 1.5 months before the Fed's FOMC in November 2023.
The price will hover between USDT24292.54 to about USDT29240.33 within this period.
Potential strong tailwind is the pause of US Fed's rate hike this coming November 2023. This will drive and test the resistance level at USDT29240.33. If there is a breakout then the next level of stronger resistance based on the dynamic resistance will be at USDT31334.78. If there is a breakout at USD31K plus then the next power strong 1 week resistance at USDT63665.58
Potential strong headwind will drive the market to around USDT24292.54 because of higher rate for longer by Fed's US. If next 1.5 months down the road if there is other or fews strong headwinds appears then the price might breakout from USDT24292.54 and head lower to a super stronger support of 1 month chart at USDT14576.47. This is highly unlikely to happen withing next few months as the Fed's is data dependent and also depend of the next 6 months' data to say that they will maintain the Fed's funds rate for longer. Still I think is not clear at the moment that the Fed's need higher for longer for 2 years.
USDT14576.47 is a very strong support level based on the 1-month chart of Bitcoin. I would only start buying a little at USDT24292.54 and reassess for 2 to 3 weeks before buying more. If by the time Bitcoin reach USDT24292.54 and the S&P most likely have no reach 3900. The Bitcoin might go lower following the S&P 500 going to 3900.
Based on current market condition it is highly unlikely to get a low that surpasses last year October 2022 bottom. However, the future for a US recession is unclear currently as there is both camp of soft landing and a recession.
Note
Due the the wars in the world especially the Israel and Palestine Hamas near future war. The price of Bitcoin, the digital gold has gone up along with Gold. Since Bitcoin has a higher Beta, the price will go even higher than Gold.To cut it short, the Bitcoin price has breach the 4 hour resistance level at USD29,240.33 level but yet to seen a breakout. The strong tailwind of the war and the potential pause of US Fed's rate hike and the future strong tailwind of Grayscale Bitcoin ETF approval might cause a breakout and the price might just reach USD63,665.58 and test that level of resistance. Bear in mind that this is without the Bitcoin Halfing in April 2024.
The current price will reach the 1 day resistance at USD37,760.29 if there is not near future strong headwind for Bitcoin. When the price reaches this level. Traders need to reconsider and wait for 2 to 3 weeks on the price action to confirm a breakout. Need a move up at least 7% or more of 1 day closing price after USD37,760.29.
Note
Current price at USDT35296.76 still no reach the 1 day time lag resistance yet currently at USDT39004.37. Still some room to go before reach the 1 day resistance. Trader should keep the BTC coins until USDT38k plus or USDT39k then wait for 2 to 3 week to see if there is a breakout to decide to hold on or sell.
Most likely no strong headwind so the price might breackout and move to USDT63,665.58.
Trade closed: target reached
Current Bitcoin price as of 3rd December 2023 is USDT39,752.41 and testing the 1 day resistance level previously forecast at USDT39,004.37 but the current dynamic resistance have move to about USDT40,200.Proven the previous recommendation to be correct to hold Bitcoin until this level. Need to wait and see to reassess the pricing for another 2 to 3 weeks before deciding to sell.
Currently there is no existence of strong headwind and only the strong tailwind of Bitcoin spot ETF to be approved along with the Ethereum spot ETF.
Not surprise that the coming week the Bitcoin price will move above USDT40K and stay stable above this range and price fluctuating around USDT40K plus.
Only potential strong headwind might come on December 13, 2023 from the US feds Fomc meeting. If bad news then there might be a strong headwind for the cryptocurrency market.
Trader should hold their Bitcoin for another 2 to 3 weeks after Fed's FOMC before deciding to sell.
Note
Today bitcoin as of 6th December 2023 is USDT43,990.05 already breach the 1 day dynamic resistance at USDT40,200.00 but yesterday and today of 5% move per day is not sufficient to confirm a breakout in the price.If there is a closing green candle stick for the day at 7% upside then there is a breakout and the price might go up at least another 100% to about USDT88k in the coming 3 to 6 months time.
This depends very much on no strong headwind appearing in the coming months and the Strong tailwind of Bitcoin spot ETF and halfing exist.
Even without a breakout the bitcoin price will move steadily upwards until the Fed's FOMC. Need good news from Fed's FOMC this 13th December 2023.
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13th December 2023 FOMC good news and the bitcoin price move uptrend from USDT43,990.05 to USDT48969.48 on 11th January 2024.There is currently a potential rally of bitcoin due to the strong tailwind halving of bitcoin effect anticipation rally with no strong headwind. Fear of 2023 Q4 earnings for S&P 500 is most unlikely a strong headwind for cryptocurrency.
USDT49447.37 is the current resistance that exist for bitcoin at 4 hours charts. The price action will most likely break this level very easily if there is no strong headwind in the coming months.
Next resistance level is USDT63,665.58 from the 1 week chart resistance level. Price can go to this level in this year.
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In the coming 3 months the all-time high for Bitcoin at USDT69,000.00 can be reach and potentially going up another 70% to 100% from USDT69,000.00. It will only happen if there is not strong headwind not appearing in the market for US equity and cryptocurrency.Current target price roughly around USDT117,300.00 to USDT138,000.00. Tom Lee from Fundstrat target is even more bullish around USDT150K. These pricing range could happen but need follow FOMC news. It is possible.
Trader should now buy Bitcoin at any pullback or dip in the market. Current price already at USDT61K to USDT62K range. Last two days the intraday price was USDT64K.
The price action seems no problem breaching USDT63,665.58 level and head higher.
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Bitcoin take about 6 months after halving only reach it all time high. Now it been only a month after halving. The price increase will not be so soon. If the CPI, PPI, ECI and PCE data is good this month and not hot. Bitcoin will see and uptrend momentum to breach USDT73K or more.
Due to the uncertainty in the USA Fed's how many rates cut this year or uncertainty when the rate is cut this year. Bitcoin price uptrend might be delay until good news from the data and good news from Fed's FOMC.
There may or may not be a Bitcoin bull run this year but if there is one coming then the target price is about USDT117.3K to USDT138K.
Buy the Dip for Bitcoin currently.
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Bitcoin price as of May 13 was USDT62,940.08. The price when up since the CPI, PPI, PCE and the Fed's FOMC was good news. Price reach USDT 71,446.62 on May 20, 2024, near USDT73K as suggested earlier.Price currently down from that level since Fed's FOMC in June 2024 say there will be only 1 rate cut this year. Bitcoin reacted with selloff due to potentially one cut this year.
Market is currently pricing in the 1 rate cut strong headwind. Bitcoin price will go further down until this strong headwind vanish.
Most likely the downtrend will continue further in the coming weeks. Bitcoin bottom is currently not in yet.
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USDT66,461.79 that is the recent bitcoin price as of July 20, 2024, bounce from the previous sell of Cryptocurrency from USA and Germany government and Mt Got Bitcoin seller's effect. The recent low on July 5, 2024 at USDT53,485.93 during the sell off.Price has been on an uptrend ever since July 5, 2024 incident. The price for bitcoin will continue to go up due to the following strong tailwind reasons:
1) Bitcoin Halving effect and remainer of Bitcoin spot ETF effect.
2) Fed's FOMC hinting of rate cut cycle in this year or next.
3) Market sniffing out the potential one rate cut turning into 2 to 3 Fed's rate cut
this year.
4) Lately Bitcoin and other Alt coin have no correlation with Nasdaq tech stock.
5) Continue of good Macro economic data CPI, PPI, PCE and GDP.
6) US labor market back to the level before the pandemic. Still strong and health
after 1.5 years of very restrictive rate.
In few weeks, time there is a chance for Bitcoin to make another all-time high above USDT73K.
Buy some Bitcoin, Ether or Solana and some alt coin now! The Halving effect is currently taking momentum and gaining strength.
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Currently here is only 1 strong headwind of Fed's 1 rate cut this year 2024. If this strong headwind turns into a strong tailwind of 2 cuts on July 31, 2024. Then Bitcoin will rally further.If there is no emergence of any strong headwinds for Bitcoin and alt coin in the coming 3 to 9 months, then bitcoin can reach its potential of USDT138K as suggested in the March 01, 2024.
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The Fed's FOMC on July 31, 2024 did not actually mention there will be 2 rates cut this year. They only indicated that if the inflation reading in the coming 2 months is within expectation there will be a cut in September 2024.The fear of a possible recession is a new strong headwind currently for cryptocurrency causing not only Bitcoin price to drop but also the S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq and Russell.
This strong headwind duration is most likely very short, I think it will affect both the equity market and Cryptocurrency market next week only. Since the CPI and PPI data is coming out the following weeks.
This down trend is just temporary due to the short nature of this strong headwind. I still think traders and investors should buy the dip for Bitcoin. Bitcoin at below USD56K before a recession is worth buying.
My last purchase was at this level.
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bought more Bitcoin at USD50k level few days ago during the panic selling.Trade active
If CPI is bad for the next 2 months, then the Bitcoin price will down again to USDT50k or below. Will sell my Bitcoin if the USA August 12, 2024 CPI is a bad number.Trade active
The August 2024 USA CPI was good with 2.5% for the headline inflation and core at 3.2%. The September 2024 report just now was okie. The Fed's FOMC September 2024 will most likely announced a 25-basis point rate cut.
Bitcoin dip below USDT54K September 7, 2024, and had rebound since then. The current market has lots of strong tailwind.
1) Inflation coming down.
2) Fed's FOMC most likely cutting rates.
3) Nvidia good earning report and great guidance. The AI trade still intact.
4) USA earning report for Q2 was good.
5) Economy is slowing and has some sign of weakness but overall, nowhere near recession level.
But there is a strong headwind in the USA market currently. The September and October seasonality issue in play causing the USA market to drop in a volatile fashion. Bitcoin has been dropping due to this reason.
The current Bitcoin and cryptocurrency market are quite tricky. The price of bitcoin might increase on September 18, 2024, after Fed's FOMC announce rate cuts. Or the seasonality strong headwind continue to make the market to go lower until mid-October 2024.
According to Theory the strong headwind will beat strong tailwind and the market will continue to be lower during the month of September and maybe October also. However, the overall market consensus or expectation during the cut and after will be important and can defer or cancel the strong headwind.
That is why I say it is tricky. Furthermore, after the first rate cut and the announcement of series of rate cut, the market will then focus solely if the economy. To see if there will be a recession of soft landing. The month after October will most likely be a good month for stock along with December traditionally when there is no election. However, this year 2024 USA has election coming. This adds to complexity on when the market will retest new high again.
Everything seems complex but let's refocus on the existing and future strong headwind. Normally when these strong headwinds exist the market will downtrend.
1) Current strong headwind Seasonality for September and maybe October 2024.
2) Election effect if there is one coming November and maybe December 2024.
3) Potential bad inflation data and bad Macro data after rate cuts. Causing the Fed's to pause rate cuts. Might occur or might not occur.
4) Sign of recession coming into play and no soft-landing scenario. Might occur or might not occur.
The average traders and investors in the USA see the first strong headwind and know the potential 3 that might happen. Causing the market to have difficulty to retest the all time high.
I will buy bitcoin at the dip if there is no recession coming. As long as the 1st headwind exists, I will not buy into the market. When the 1st strong headwind ends and the other 3 potential ones has signs of not happening, then only I will buy into bitcoin and other cryptocurrency. I can't tell when it will happen.
USA stock might rally in the month of November and December and cause bitcoin to rally along. If the 3rd and 4th future strong headwind show signs of happening, I will sell those profitable position in the cryptocurrency space and wait to buy at the bottom.
Note
The strong headwind of September and October seasonality has end, The US election strong headwind has also ended, The potential bad macroeconomic data and inflation is highly unlikely to happen in November and December 2024, The USA economy seem stronger than expected and the USA recession will not happen in next 8 months. If after September 2025 is USA has no recession then can confirm softlanding on the economy.
With all the 4 strong headwind above cease and not likely to happen soon, this is the time to buy bitcoin and other alt coin cryptocurrency. BUY THE DIP! BUY THE DIP! BUY THE DIP!
The following strong tailwind reason to buy into Cryptocurrency.
1) Unemployment rate at 4.1, below 4.6 is consider strong job reports in the USA. The below 4.6 handle is expected to remain until 2026 with the current rate cuts by the Fed's FOMC.
2) The start of Fed's rate cut cycle. Already 75 basis point cut so far this year.
3) The core PCE currently at 2.7 and expected to be 2.0 by end 2026 based on the latest Fed's FOMC report
4) The strong USA GDP at Q2 3.0% and Q3 2.8% all above 2.0%.
5) Unemployment claims still at 255K, recession require 350K unemployment claim.
This month of November and December 2024 will be the month for Bitcoin, alt coin (Cryptocurrency) and USA equity generally.
BUY NOW, BUY NOW, BUY NOW
Bitcoin will go up to USDT138K as suggested on March 01, 2024
Note
Two days ago, I made a call to purchase Bitcoin and altcoin following Trumps win in the USA Presidential race. This is a strong new tailwind that cause the market to reach all time intraday high at USDT89,940.00 from two days ago at USDT80,370.01.
Currently the market is correcting itself in a very normal fashion for Bitcoin and the rest of the altcoin. Current intraday price of bitcoin is at USDT85,395.99.
The correction will continue on until roughly around USDT86,112.00 or slightly lower before a rebound will take place. The worst it will get is USDT82,000.00 and back to square one.
If bad news on tomorrow CPI and Thursday PPI print then you might see a move lower than the correction affect level. Maybe a sub USDT70K below for bitcoin. The Bitcoin and altcoin bull run that started few days ago rally will still be intact if the CPI and PPI print is good or moderate.
I am already fully invested in Bitcoin and altcoin. Hope the CPI and PPI will be good, then the bitcoin bull run will continue until the end of December 31, 2024.
Note
Bitcoin intraday on November 24, 2024 is USDT97,213.29 since the CPI and PPI is moderate. Price will climb further to USDT138K if all the macro economic conditions is good or moderate until end March 2025.
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