Bitcoin / TetherUSUpdated Bitcoin - A Bullish and Bearish Strategy
Good Morning, Good Afternoon, Good Evening!
I wanted to give you an idea of where I am at in my current strategy. This has been a fantastic little bull run Bitcoin has provided us, with awesome gains seen around the entire market. Holy cow! Awesome! :D
Over the last two weeks, my family and I moved into a new home. It has been super exciting, and super exhausting, so, I haven't been posting ideas. But, I wanted to post what I am seeing right now. I typically do not post unless I feel confident with what I am posting, and my track record shows that. I don't want to just bombard you with pointless charts that provide zero value, like many of the top authors do. So, let's take a look at what I am seeing.
Obviously, Bitcoin has made a pretty dramatic fall from $9,800 down to $8,730 in a matter of hours. With that, it took the alt coin market down with it, generously dishing out 15-20% losses. I personally did ride this down, because this price action on the way up was too good to just day trade it. It needed to breathe and be ridden. But, now comes the point in time where it might be an opportunity to secure the profits. So, here is my strategy.
First of all, I am 100% still in the market. All in, and I have been all in since the market was at $6,800. This includes about 25% of my money in Bitcoin and the rest in alt coins. But, that's about to change, and I am about to go to 100% fiat. So, how am I going to do it?
The Bullish Option:
Step 1:
Bitcoin is going to make a retracement of this fall now. The most likely zone it will retrace to is around $9,450. This is a 70.2% retracement of the fall from $9,800 to $8,730. This is the most likely area where the retracement will end, and Bitcoin will make a decision to continue up or down. At this point, I will sell out of everything, 100% at $9,450. All alts, all Bitcoin, everything. We are going fiat now. Securing the gains, and are going to wait for a decision of the next move.
Step 2:
What decision are we looking for? Well, as you can see, I have drawn a channel I feel strongly that we are in. We are also resting on top of a support that we have recently broken above. That's a big one. And we hope that we can maintain staying on top of it, or else the fall down is not pretty.
So, If we break above the red downtrend line, I will be buying the breakout. I expect Bitcoin to travel to $10,100, which is the 70.2% retracement of the fall from $11,800 to $6,400. At this point, Bitcoin will likely stall out for a little while. Will it break above it? I'm not sure. But if we start breaking down that green uptrend line around $9,200, I will certainly be finding my exit.
Step 3:
If we overcome $10,100, the next point of concern will be $10,700. Once again, this is a potential reversal zone as it is the .786 fib retracement of the fall. I'm not as concerned about this as I am concerned about $10,100. But, it's always possible that it is the reversal spot.
If we do overcome $10,700, I believe we will be in the clear to $13,000.
The Bearish Option:
Step 1:
Pretty much identical to Step 1 of the Bullish option. I'm selling at $9,450.
Step 2:
We do not break out of the red downtrend line. We continue down until we reach $7,500. At $7,500, I will be re-entering the market with a full position again. We will want to see the bounce, see if it can break the downtrend red line, if it can, great! If it can't, well, we have our stop set below the current low at that time. Somewhere between $7,500 and $7,800. It depends on what the situation is at the time, and if we get there, I'll update that.
So, we hope for breakout of red down trend, if not, and we go below the current low at that time, we exit, and wait.... for $5,900.
Step 3:
There is no step 3 at this point. If we reach $5,900, we have to see what is happening with the market at the time to determine if we are making a real reversal. We might not be. We might keep going down. We will need to analyze the indicators.
I wanted to give you an idea of where I am at in my current strategy. This has been a fantastic little bull run Bitcoin has provided us, with awesome gains seen around the entire market. Holy cow! Awesome! :D
Over the last two weeks, my family and I moved into a new home. It has been super exciting, and super exhausting, so, I haven't been posting ideas. But, I wanted to post what I am seeing right now. I typically do not post unless I feel confident with what I am posting, and my track record shows that. I don't want to just bombard you with pointless charts that provide zero value, like many of the top authors do. So, let's take a look at what I am seeing.
Obviously, Bitcoin has made a pretty dramatic fall from $9,800 down to $8,730 in a matter of hours. With that, it took the alt coin market down with it, generously dishing out 15-20% losses. I personally did ride this down, because this price action on the way up was too good to just day trade it. It needed to breathe and be ridden. But, now comes the point in time where it might be an opportunity to secure the profits. So, here is my strategy.
First of all, I am 100% still in the market. All in, and I have been all in since the market was at $6,800. This includes about 25% of my money in Bitcoin and the rest in alt coins. But, that's about to change, and I am about to go to 100% fiat. So, how am I going to do it?
The Bullish Option:
Step 1:
Bitcoin is going to make a retracement of this fall now. The most likely zone it will retrace to is around $9,450. This is a 70.2% retracement of the fall from $9,800 to $8,730. This is the most likely area where the retracement will end, and Bitcoin will make a decision to continue up or down. At this point, I will sell out of everything, 100% at $9,450. All alts, all Bitcoin, everything. We are going fiat now. Securing the gains, and are going to wait for a decision of the next move.
Step 2:
What decision are we looking for? Well, as you can see, I have drawn a channel I feel strongly that we are in. We are also resting on top of a support that we have recently broken above. That's a big one. And we hope that we can maintain staying on top of it, or else the fall down is not pretty.
So, If we break above the red downtrend line, I will be buying the breakout. I expect Bitcoin to travel to $10,100, which is the 70.2% retracement of the fall from $11,800 to $6,400. At this point, Bitcoin will likely stall out for a little while. Will it break above it? I'm not sure. But if we start breaking down that green uptrend line around $9,200, I will certainly be finding my exit.
Step 3:
If we overcome $10,100, the next point of concern will be $10,700. Once again, this is a potential reversal zone as it is the .786 fib retracement of the fall. I'm not as concerned about this as I am concerned about $10,100. But, it's always possible that it is the reversal spot.
If we do overcome $10,700, I believe we will be in the clear to $13,000.
The Bearish Option:
Step 1:
Pretty much identical to Step 1 of the Bullish option. I'm selling at $9,450.
Step 2:
We do not break out of the red downtrend line. We continue down until we reach $7,500. At $7,500, I will be re-entering the market with a full position again. We will want to see the bounce, see if it can break the downtrend red line, if it can, great! If it can't, well, we have our stop set below the current low at that time. Somewhere between $7,500 and $7,800. It depends on what the situation is at the time, and if we get there, I'll update that.
So, we hope for breakout of red down trend, if not, and we go below the current low at that time, we exit, and wait.... for $5,900.
Step 3:
There is no step 3 at this point. If we reach $5,900, we have to see what is happening with the market at the time to determine if we are making a real reversal. We might not be. We might keep going down. We will need to analyze the indicators.
Note
We are approaching our target of $9450. I will be making gradual exits once we cross $9375, just in case we don't hit $9450 exactly.Note
And just a reminder guys, I am not bearish, and I am not bullish, I am trying to do capital preservation, and have a plan on how I will protect it.There is no doubt in my mind we could fly upwards. There is no doubt in my mind we could crash downwards. I am in a position where I don't care which way it goes. If it goes up, my buys will get hit and I'll make more profit. If it goes down, I'll buy more coins for cheaper later. I just see us being at a crossroads where a decision is about to be made, and I don't want to get hurt by a strong down move. I'm willing to lose a few points to the upside as an insurance policy for myself against losing MANY points to the downside.
I see all kinds of possibilities, and the MOST LIKELY outcome I see, is that we go up. I would give it a 80% probability that we are going to go up, and go up in a strong way, to like $11,250 in a matter of TWO DAYS.
This post is not a chart to predict the future. This chart is posted to show how I am going to do risk management, and what likely outcomes I am looking for.
I am protecting myself from the situation of a big fall. I've made tremendous profits, and there is no reason to lose two weeks of gains in a matter of a day or two.
Trade active
25% sold into fiat. More sells coming as market continues to develop.Note
Like I've mentioned before, I am merely following my plan. If I had to say, "How do I think the market looks right now?" I would say it looks bullish. It looks likely the whole market has started a bull run. Especially when we look at what EOS is doing. But, emotions and opinions can be affected when we see green candles. So, I'm just going to continue to follow my original plan, and make changes and adapt if certain forecasts become invalidated.Note
We should see Bitcoin make a decision very soon. We are at the 70.2% retracement at this exact moment.Note
We are seeing lots of volume on alt coins. Could be an indication that we aren't done going up with BTC. May just be some sideways action so these alts can rally. We shall see.Note
Breaking $9525 is bullish, as far as I can see, that breaks the .786. Looks good to go for more up.Note
Channel broken out of and back-tested.Note
If you are buying into the FOMO here, this is a dangerous place to do it. $10,125 is the 70.2% retrace spot. Longs are flying, which is indicative of people who are way too late to the party. The time to go long was at $6,800, like I did, not at $9,700. The whales will take advantage of this and crush those longs and take out their stop losses. It would not surprise me to see a very hard push back at $10,125.Note
I'm going to be looking for a bull flag to form once we hit $10,135. If we do, this should give alts a chance to make one more push up (hopefully). So, if you are in alts, this might be a good time to start taking profit and moving into Bitcoin. Because if Bitcoin breaks $10,135, I suspect we see a very fast and strong move up to $13,000. This would cause the alts that are paired with BTC to go down. So, might want to move into Bitcoin at that time.It's your call. But, that's what I'm thinking I'm going to be doing.
Note
Well, this thing played out to reverse at the 10,000 zone, which was right under the 70.2% retracement of the fall from 11,800 to 6,400. We appear to be finishing a 1-2-3-4-5 move down, and I'm looking for a bounce at 7,500. This should create an A-B-C correction of the fall, and take us to just above 9,200. From there, I expect another leg down, taking us below 7,500 to test that 6,900. What it does from there... we will all be watching to find out...Note
We are looking for a bounce right now. This is the 70.2% retracement level of $6,400 to $10,100... here at $7500. I'm getting in, but watching closely.$6,900 is very likely, but if this is nothing more than a retracement, this is the spot where it would reverse.
Note
Just so you guys are aware, and I'll post a chart on this soon, I'm looking for Bitcoin's next move to be to around $4900, we should see a bounce there, along with all the alts. The alts will likely bounce much stronger than Bitcoin. However, I do not believe this is the bottom. We still have a long ways to go. Bitcoin will likely go up to the $7100-7300 range, and then we get the very dramatic washout selloff, taking is down into the $2000's, or lower. I see the posibility that it could go as low as $780. Yea, I know, sounds impossible, but, once enough people feel this is hopeless, anything can happen.If we look at the history of the stock market and when Bitcoin had it's dramatic bull runs, well, 2013 was a great year for the stock market, and a great year for Bitcoin. The stock market went up 28%, and Bitcoin 100X'd. In 2016 and 2017, the stock market went up 17% and 25%, and Bitcoin 100X'd again.
When Bitcoin was having poor years, in 2014, and, the stock market went up 7% in 2014, and down 3.5% in 2015. We are looking to have a bearish year in stocks, and I believe that will translate into Bitcoin as well.
However, 2019 looks promising.
So, right now, what I'm looking for is one last rally. First, we fall to $4900, then the whole market rallies until Bitcoin crosses the $7000 mark. Then it's time to start closing out those longs. After that, we just wait, sit on the sidelines, and watch all hell let loose. Sorry for the bad news if you're hoping for bullish news. But I just don't see it happening in the foreseeable future. We still have a ways down to go.
Mind you, I am entered in positions right now, and will take the hurt of the ride down to $4900. I have money on the sidelines that is ready for the entry down there between $4900-5200, mainly going into alt coins. But, I'm not going to have any expectation of a new bullish run. Merely a retrace.
Best of luck.
Note
No one knows where the bottom is except for the whales. It's obvious, no one knows at all. It's anyone's guess based on previous breakouts that were never tested as support, fib lines, pitch forks. Whatever. But, I wanted to share these two things I've noticed after trying to manipulate this Bitcoin chart over and over again:Note
Here's another abstract one:Note
I've been studying over everything this morning in regards to alt coins, Bitcoin, and just their general placement in their cycles. I think it is very stupid to be bearish here. I think this is a golden opportunity.
I am very choice with my words. And I do not make predictions and charts just for the sake of pumping out content. When I see something, and my confidence level is high, then I post. Hence, why I have less than a couple dozen charts posted.
I am starting to get very bullish here.
Note
;) Seeing massive spikes among many alt coins. Several +40% in a matter of just a couple of hours. Grab the ones that haven't spiked yet :D
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.