The big move, BULL or BEAR!?!?
Market daily update:
- As we reached the top channel (I prefer to look at it as descending broadening wedge) which we formed since the 14k, a lot of people yet again became extremely bullish,
but do remember that when there is too much Fomo price tends to go against everyone because they are being used as liquidity for the opposite price movement.
- On the other hand, we have a lot of sharp moves which support this micro trend:
• OBV keeps on supporting the move on all TFs and rising
• Volume keeps on rising (Still low though)
• We are above all important MAs such as the weekly e21, the daily e50 and e200 (And if we stay at current prices or go higher, we might see another golden cross happening).
• We are above daily cloud (And hit the weekly cloud barrier again, do notice this)
• We formed nice PA Bullish engulfing candle 2 days ago which might take its toll any moment.
• We have Adam and eve pattern on the daily as well which support this move up.
• All oscillators are a bit exhausted but the more time the have to rest the strong the push is going to be up which might tare down this channel which we are stuck in since 14k.
• The Monthly candle closed above the last monthly candle which is big news.
• And Sentimental score is getting better and better, we might pass the 50 any day now
• We had 6 green weekly candles, there was only 1 time when we had 7-8 green candles and this was when the bull run started after we reached 1200 for the first time and crushed,
and then on the 3rd time when we passed 1k we started the real bull run all the way to 20k – will this happen again?
- So where is the negative part? It depends how you look at it but:
• We are still just under the top channel since the 14k.
• We are still stuck on the weekly cloud
• Our weekly volume is still way too low – notice, this does not mean volume won’t come when things will get hot…
• RSI is very high on daily, and since we hit 10k in Feb, it never been that high
• Over 200m USDT were taken out of OKEX
• The false expectations hype for the upcoming halving (Which really should get into effect only in 5-7 months to start the bull run as history showed us)
• We had 6 green weekly candles, there was only 1 time when we had 7-8 green candles and this was when the bull run started after we reached 1200 for the first time and crushed,
and then on the 3rd time when we passed 1k we started the real bull run all the way to 20k – will this be the last green candle?
- In overall we had a very nice week, the fastest recovery I have ever seen from a crush, especially in maybe one of the biggest crisis we are experiencing this
century (Which don’t be mistaken in no way, it is far from over, we are in the panic stage which isn’t over yet, and there are 2 more stages to come, these are the overall stages:
"Stage1: panic and liquidity phase
stage2: Hope and correction phase
stage3: Insolvency, a brutal phase that changes everything, including the systems themselves" - this was quoted from Raoul Pal.
- There are so many reasons to go extremely bullish, and so many reasons to go extremely bearish here, take your bets on! most of it shows BULLISH!!!
But this can also be the reason why price might go against all expectation, I know I should go bullish and yet I can’t go against my own way of trading,
the bigger picture is to go against what most people are thinking, and also my bigger picture is still in a bearish trend, and right now?
We are right below all the possible big resistances… so will this midterm trend continue?
1. People should always go with the trend, the bigger picture trend is bearish, while the midterm trend is bullish, but since this midterm trend has so much support for it,
and since we are touching this upper channel since 14k for the 3rd time, it is smarter to continue with it, never go against the trend, so it really might be the real bull run which everyone expects it to be.
2. I personally prefer to continue with the big term trend until it blows away, as I usually say, I will turn bullish when we pass 10500 with all the supportive data, and if I miss out the blow up, then I will wait for it to drop and then enter in as well. I’m not in a hurry because anything that goes up, must also go down to hop in and continue riding up, I won’t be missing out the chance
- As we reached the top channel (I prefer to look at it as descending broadening wedge) which we formed since the 14k, a lot of people yet again became extremely bullish,
but do remember that when there is too much Fomo price tends to go against everyone because they are being used as liquidity for the opposite price movement.
- On the other hand, we have a lot of sharp moves which support this micro trend:
• OBV keeps on supporting the move on all TFs and rising
• Volume keeps on rising (Still low though)
• We are above all important MAs such as the weekly e21, the daily e50 and e200 (And if we stay at current prices or go higher, we might see another golden cross happening).
• We are above daily cloud (And hit the weekly cloud barrier again, do notice this)
• We formed nice PA Bullish engulfing candle 2 days ago which might take its toll any moment.
• We have Adam and eve pattern on the daily as well which support this move up.
• All oscillators are a bit exhausted but the more time the have to rest the strong the push is going to be up which might tare down this channel which we are stuck in since 14k.
• The Monthly candle closed above the last monthly candle which is big news.
• And Sentimental score is getting better and better, we might pass the 50 any day now
• We had 6 green weekly candles, there was only 1 time when we had 7-8 green candles and this was when the bull run started after we reached 1200 for the first time and crushed,
and then on the 3rd time when we passed 1k we started the real bull run all the way to 20k – will this happen again?
- So where is the negative part? It depends how you look at it but:
• We are still just under the top channel since the 14k.
• We are still stuck on the weekly cloud
• Our weekly volume is still way too low – notice, this does not mean volume won’t come when things will get hot…
• RSI is very high on daily, and since we hit 10k in Feb, it never been that high
• Over 200m USDT were taken out of OKEX
• The false expectations hype for the upcoming halving (Which really should get into effect only in 5-7 months to start the bull run as history showed us)
• We had 6 green weekly candles, there was only 1 time when we had 7-8 green candles and this was when the bull run started after we reached 1200 for the first time and crushed,
and then on the 3rd time when we passed 1k we started the real bull run all the way to 20k – will this be the last green candle?
- In overall we had a very nice week, the fastest recovery I have ever seen from a crush, especially in maybe one of the biggest crisis we are experiencing this
century (Which don’t be mistaken in no way, it is far from over, we are in the panic stage which isn’t over yet, and there are 2 more stages to come, these are the overall stages:
"Stage1: panic and liquidity phase
stage2: Hope and correction phase
stage3: Insolvency, a brutal phase that changes everything, including the systems themselves" - this was quoted from Raoul Pal.
- There are so many reasons to go extremely bullish, and so many reasons to go extremely bearish here, take your bets on! most of it shows BULLISH!!!
But this can also be the reason why price might go against all expectation, I know I should go bullish and yet I can’t go against my own way of trading,
the bigger picture is to go against what most people are thinking, and also my bigger picture is still in a bearish trend, and right now?
We are right below all the possible big resistances… so will this midterm trend continue?
1. People should always go with the trend, the bigger picture trend is bearish, while the midterm trend is bullish, but since this midterm trend has so much support for it,
and since we are touching this upper channel since 14k for the 3rd time, it is smarter to continue with it, never go against the trend, so it really might be the real bull run which everyone expects it to be.
2. I personally prefer to continue with the big term trend until it blows away, as I usually say, I will turn bullish when we pass 10500 with all the supportive data, and if I miss out the blow up, then I will wait for it to drop and then enter in as well. I’m not in a hurry because anything that goes up, must also go down to hop in and continue riding up, I won’t be missing out the chance
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