Updated

BTC/USD

Testing/tracking elliot wave theory. Please do not trade off idea without S/L. Not financial advice.

My calls been lookin' like CNN's lately so trade this at your own risk.
So we will either bounce on the ABC wave (blue) or we are still finishing this corrective WXYXZ wave (teal). The teal wave is least likely to play out, but If I see it on the charts, its still possible. After having gone up for 610 days, we have been correcting for almost 200 days. Corrective patterns normally last for 1/3 of the duration that the uptrend has lasted. The end is near.

If we are in a true bull market for crypto then this chart has a very high rate of playing out. Wave 1 top has been found, we either found wave 2 bottom or need that last leg down. Wave 3 top will range between 105k-170k. Wave 3 is usually the longest wave out of 1 and 5. With the projected price shown at 170k it will be the longest, even if it hits the bare minimum of 105k it's still the longest wave of the 3.

We are waiting for wave 2 to finish before starting wave 3.

Why I think this chart has a high chance of playing out?
Because the predicted counts are revolving the next btc halving event.

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We will bounce to the X count which is @37k. If the bounce goes above that and pass the count on B @ 49k then we can assume the new uptrend for wave 3 has started.

If we don't go above 37k, we can expect it to fall to the last Z wave and the uptrend for wave 3 should start there.

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So we're working on the X wave and currently we have either a cup & handle with a bull flag or we're forming a double cup & handle.

If we don't break out of the current channel we have a possibility of another leg down.

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So we broke out of the bull flag channel. The breakout came a bit sooner than where I anticipated. Depending on how fast we move we can get a nice impulse wave trend started, if not we might be following this second cup & handle.

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So far so good!

We are following this blue channel. Until we break down or up I think this will be our play.

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Update: Timeline slightly moved to the right.

All targets remain the same. I've added one more line to the channel at the bottom. The trend channel is something new I'm looking at. What's good about them is that if these channels break you will be able to tell that we're changing direction. Placing stop losses right underneath them would help prevent losses.

Any break above the channel is always good lol. It means moon shot.

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Welp that did not come out as planned. Counting the micro waves are not possible lol.

So now that we've been given a lil bit more data. I think this may play out.
It seems like wave 1 and 2 is in. If we are still following this channel, this could be the scenario. Wave 3 top on the new chart is slightly higher. I can't predict the top, I can only get a rough estimate of where it may go so the range is 24-26.5k

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With wave (1) and (2) in, let's see if the sub wave for wave (3) will play out like this.

The pink wave is the sub wave

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On the above chart, it shows that we still have a bit lower to go for wave 2.

On the below chart it'll show you that wave 2 is already in for the pink wave.

I have created a new subwave for the pink wave in (white).

If wave 1 and 2 are in for the pink wave, we should be working on wave (3) as shown below.

This is why it's super hard to predict price movement with elliot waves. Your count needs to be 100% accurate and the count below could also be correct.

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So far so good. The chart below is the other half of the chart above. It shows that we can possibly go up to 32k, however 29k seems to be the most probable top. I'll have to zoom out and see. I will update as we get closer

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Update: Wave 3 & 4 are in. We should be working on the last impulse now.

26k.

This is why I keep saying anything goes in crypto. lol wave 3 top came in a bit sooner than my prediction. Thanks elon :P

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Chart Update: This chart is zoomed out.

We have gone below our trend channel. We didn't get an ABC correction after the 3rd wave top. We got a WXYXZ wave instead.

There's a small possibility that this count is still correct. I'd be super careful though since we did go below our trend channel. As long as the 3rd wave is not the shortest wave, this chart below can still play out.

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If we do resume the trend, our new channel would look like this.

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Update: We went just a bit lower. This is our new channel now.

Place your stop loss anytime below this red lower trend line. A break below this red line means we are no longer in this uptrend channel.

After a 28% pump we got a 14% pullback, this is very healthy as we don't want constant growth with no pullbacks.

If this trend continues we should see something like another 30%+ gains and -15% pullback.

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On the above chart the date & time is something I used as an example.

In order for my count to be correct we have to hit 26k+ before 7 days and 2h, wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave.

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Comment: On the above chart the count is for a new impulse wave.

On this chart below it's the wave count for a X wave

Wave x top target is 26k-29k. If we go above this then we are getting a new impulse wave (1) - bull run has started

If its the X wave we will be correcting further down to 13k area.

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Chart Update:

I can't find the chart that I was tracking for btc on the daily.

This is the same chart but on the daily.

Our top ended up being 25300 or so, just a bit short of the 26k that I was expecting.

Also, where I thought our 5th wave count timeline was off; what happened was we ended up getting where I thought the 5th wave would be combined with the 3rd wave. If you scroll up, they all show about 7 day time for these waves to play out.

On the daily, they average the time up so its 8 days on the chart below

so my count would've been 8, 8, 8 or 7, 7, 7 days

What we got was 8 days for wave 1
then 8 days again for wave 1 (Sub wave of wave 3)
and then 17 days for wave 3
11 days for wave 5

Currently we are looking more like we're in the trend for the X wave than an impulse

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The impulse wave 1 would need to follow something like this green wave. We would need a miracle pump for this to happen. It seems highly unlikely that we will get it so I'm leaning more towards the abc pullback here from wave 3 - 4 for the X wave

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It looks like my count is off and we've been retracing from a 5th wave top. This 5th wave top is a sub wave of the impulse wave we've been waiting for. It is now the sub wave 1 top and sub wave 2 is looking for it's bottom.

BTC is starting to look more like we will be getting our impulse wave 1 and not the X wave.

If we are to get an impulse wave 1 it would look something like this. The top for it is around 34-36k

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AyoKu

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