BTC testing long tf support. Ranting in this one.
Updated
I'm re-accumulating short positions at 16.8 and piling on more on any jumps up.
Breaking back into the old trend line will be fatal and will likely be well defended. I expect a lot more volatility than anything so you can honestly trade this either direction and be able to make bank as long as you're patient.
Broadening formations continue - the market has no clear direction at the moment. I'm betting we'll see a lot more down pressure in the coming couple months tho. I see a lot of bulls coming out. Being "just a little bit early" was the secret to the Rothschild wealth.
History:
I had posted the short entry before running into the FOMC, which great but I took profits fast. I did not sweat the run up, stuck to the plan, but I closed profit quickly. I knew what Jpow would say, that they would be hawkish. If you don't get that the fed is actually targeting inflation expectations, not inflation itself, you're missing a big piece of the puzzle. The market will respond to what the fed says, and you can digest what the fed says and lay out different perspectives. The fed will probably adjust target inflation and pivot but they would do it very very VERY quietly because the optics need to remain hawkish in order for inflation to get stamped out. The wage inflation is likely going to be the biggest battle. The interesting piece for me in the FOMC stream was that JPOW stated they are not considering moving target inflation from 2%, which I scoped right in on. This is probably the most hawkish signal of the whole FOMC broadcast, but people don't realize it yet. The pivot everyone is hoping for is dependent on inflation running hot for longer. Of course Kathy Woods wants you to think there is deflationary risk, not inflationary: she's holding the bag, man! And she got rekt while I was selling out of tech.
JPOW stick to the plan. Heads down, blinders on, keep the message hawkish. You can stop hiking rates but stop any talk of a soft landing. Pivot, but do it in the shade. Show up as Corviknight. Steel Hawk motherfuckers. You've gotta project that. Get your constituents straight. Print some money and pay them to put higher dots in the dot plot. You guys have to work as a team. Control the image. I really hope you've figured it out - it's a game. I'm betting on you being smart. Be like Volcker in that you're well remembered, but this isn't your Volcker moment, this is the JPOW fucking hawk of steel moment when he convinces everyone hard-line 2%, tampers inflation to 4%, and then start to find concessions once everyone is convinced you're for real. It'll be a hard path, but you'll get there if you can stop trying to please people today with your words. IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT THE RATE IS - what matters is the expectations. They'll thank you tomorrow.. You must stick to the plan, stamp out the spiral, or you'll be remembered in a different light.
Breaking back into the old trend line will be fatal and will likely be well defended. I expect a lot more volatility than anything so you can honestly trade this either direction and be able to make bank as long as you're patient.
Broadening formations continue - the market has no clear direction at the moment. I'm betting we'll see a lot more down pressure in the coming couple months tho. I see a lot of bulls coming out. Being "just a little bit early" was the secret to the Rothschild wealth.
History:
I had posted the short entry before running into the FOMC, which great but I took profits fast. I did not sweat the run up, stuck to the plan, but I closed profit quickly. I knew what Jpow would say, that they would be hawkish. If you don't get that the fed is actually targeting inflation expectations, not inflation itself, you're missing a big piece of the puzzle. The market will respond to what the fed says, and you can digest what the fed says and lay out different perspectives. The fed will probably adjust target inflation and pivot but they would do it very very VERY quietly because the optics need to remain hawkish in order for inflation to get stamped out. The wage inflation is likely going to be the biggest battle. The interesting piece for me in the FOMC stream was that JPOW stated they are not considering moving target inflation from 2%, which I scoped right in on. This is probably the most hawkish signal of the whole FOMC broadcast, but people don't realize it yet. The pivot everyone is hoping for is dependent on inflation running hot for longer. Of course Kathy Woods wants you to think there is deflationary risk, not inflationary: she's holding the bag, man! And she got rekt while I was selling out of tech.
JPOW stick to the plan. Heads down, blinders on, keep the message hawkish. You can stop hiking rates but stop any talk of a soft landing. Pivot, but do it in the shade. Show up as Corviknight. Steel Hawk motherfuckers. You've gotta project that. Get your constituents straight. Print some money and pay them to put higher dots in the dot plot. You guys have to work as a team. Control the image. I really hope you've figured it out - it's a game. I'm betting on you being smart. Be like Volcker in that you're well remembered, but this isn't your Volcker moment, this is the JPOW fucking hawk of steel moment when he convinces everyone hard-line 2%, tampers inflation to 4%, and then start to find concessions once everyone is convinced you're for real. It'll be a hard path, but you'll get there if you can stop trying to please people today with your words. IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT THE RATE IS - what matters is the expectations. They'll thank you tomorrow.. You must stick to the plan, stamp out the spiral, or you'll be remembered in a different light.
Note
Suspect we may see 17.7 again.
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