Bitcoin's current liquidity constraints and recent 4-hour chart breakout reflect a tug-of-war between technical momentum and market mechanics. Here's a breakdown of key factors influencing BTC's trajectory:
Why BTC Lacks Liquidity Push
Exchange-Controlled Volatility: Market makers are suppressing rapid price surges to profit from liquidations, with Identified supplied zone as a "liquidity trap zone" where leveraged long positions were targeted. This artificial containment explains the muted liquidity-driven rally despite favorable macro conditions.
Delayed Fed Easing: The Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening persists, delaying a full liquidity injection cycle. While U.S. Treasury drawdowns added $510B since February 2025, Bitcoin’s correlation to liquidity peaks (projected at $6.5T by Q4) remains partial until Fed rate cuts materialize.
Risk-Off Sentiment: Geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty have diverted some institutional capital to gold (recently surpassing $3,200/oz), temporarily capping Bitcoin’s haven appeal.
4-Hour Descending Trendline Breakout: Bullish Signals
Technical Validation: BTC broke above a descending resistance line that governed price action since December 2024,my confirmation will be by a strong close above $85400 on the daily chart. The 4-hour chart shows a bullish flag pattern, with higher lows suggesting accumulation.
Momentum Indicators: A bullish MACD crossover on the daily chart and rising RSI (4-hour) signal growing buying pressure, though the MACD histogram remains tentative.
Upswing Potential vs. Liquidity Risks
Bull Case:
A sustained break above $85,300 could trigger a rally toward $88,000–$92,000 this week, aligning with historical post-halving cycles and ETF inflow momentum.
Bernstein analysts project $150K–$200K by late 2025 if ETF inflows hit
70B+ and Fed easing accelerates.
Bear Risks:
Exchanges may continue suppressing rallies to harvest liquidity, risking pullbacks to $81K–$84K if $85K fails to hold as it prevented price upswing many times .
Delayed Fed rate cuts or renewed trade tensions could tighten financial conditions, stifling Bitcoin’s macro-driven upside.
Short-Term Outlook
The 4-hour trendline breakout favors a bullish bias, with April targets at
88K–
92K if BTC holds above $85K. However, liquidity constraints from market maker tactics and gold’s haven dominance may delay a sustained rally until broader macro catalysts (Fed policy shifts, debt ceiling resolution) emerge. Traders should watch for a daily close above $85,400 to confirm upward momentum where i lookt to target 90k and sell from that zone
Why BTC Lacks Liquidity Push
Exchange-Controlled Volatility: Market makers are suppressing rapid price surges to profit from liquidations, with Identified supplied zone as a "liquidity trap zone" where leveraged long positions were targeted. This artificial containment explains the muted liquidity-driven rally despite favorable macro conditions.
Delayed Fed Easing: The Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening persists, delaying a full liquidity injection cycle. While U.S. Treasury drawdowns added $510B since February 2025, Bitcoin’s correlation to liquidity peaks (projected at $6.5T by Q4) remains partial until Fed rate cuts materialize.
Risk-Off Sentiment: Geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty have diverted some institutional capital to gold (recently surpassing $3,200/oz), temporarily capping Bitcoin’s haven appeal.
4-Hour Descending Trendline Breakout: Bullish Signals
Technical Validation: BTC broke above a descending resistance line that governed price action since December 2024,my confirmation will be by a strong close above $85400 on the daily chart. The 4-hour chart shows a bullish flag pattern, with higher lows suggesting accumulation.
Momentum Indicators: A bullish MACD crossover on the daily chart and rising RSI (4-hour) signal growing buying pressure, though the MACD histogram remains tentative.
Upswing Potential vs. Liquidity Risks
Bull Case:
A sustained break above $85,300 could trigger a rally toward $88,000–$92,000 this week, aligning with historical post-halving cycles and ETF inflow momentum.
Bernstein analysts project $150K–$200K by late 2025 if ETF inflows hit
70B+ and Fed easing accelerates.Bear Risks:
Exchanges may continue suppressing rallies to harvest liquidity, risking pullbacks to $81K–$84K if $85K fails to hold as it prevented price upswing many times .
Delayed Fed rate cuts or renewed trade tensions could tighten financial conditions, stifling Bitcoin’s macro-driven upside.
Short-Term Outlook
The 4-hour trendline breakout favors a bullish bias, with April targets at
88K–92K if BTC holds above $85K. However, liquidity constraints from market maker tactics and gold’s haven dominance may delay a sustained rally until broader macro catalysts (Fed policy shifts, debt ceiling resolution) emerge. Traders should watch for a daily close above $85,400 to confirm upward momentum where i lookt to target 90k and sell from that zone 
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.