It's going up forever Laura!
Updated
Yeah, It's going up forever.
Everyone will copy MSTR and include BTC in their reserves.
Valuing companies will be much much simpler on Bitcoin standard.
This will contribute to the efficiency of society immensly.
Good luck!
Everyone will copy MSTR and include BTC in their reserves.
Valuing companies will be much much simpler on Bitcoin standard.
This will contribute to the efficiency of society immensly.
Good luck!
Trade active
Bitcoin on exchanges is drying up, and a big contributor of permanently locked Bitcoin is Michael Saylor.
That's the Bitcoin that's never getting into circulation again XD
coinglass.com/Balance
Note
Nooooobody expects the Saylor acquisition!
youtube.com/watch?v=QqreRufrkxM
Note
Tornado and smart contract sanctions are deemed illegal by the court.
This is a big change.
Ivan on tech:
youtube.com/watch?v=jAvt_W_hc3Q
Note
You cannot play fiat games in the Bitcoin world with Microstrategy.
If Bitcoin is at 50vol and MSTR is at 100 or 150 vol, you need to hedge your MSTR shorts with 2x or 3x fiat entering the Bitcoin.
Bitcoin sensitivity is 10/1, meaning that for every 33B you put into Bitcoin, the market cap goes up 30B.
You are shorting MSTR and hedging with senior asset.
On paper, you are shorting 1/100th of MSTR and longing 30/2000 BTC, which is roughly a 1/15 MSTR/BTC ratio. That's still fine if you ignore the fact that the premium is usually over 70%.
You can't do that in the Bitcoin world because price is determined on the margin, and the margin at the moment includes only 2.5M Bitcoin available on exchanges, which is consistently dropping.
This means that MSTR can soon easily have over 50% of circulating supply of Bitcoin, the rest are long term holders.
On top of that, MSTR is essentially "burning" BTC because there are no mechanisms that will force MSTR to sell (at least not before 2029).
The bond holders will constantly hedge in order to get stable returns, but they are leaving the rest of the profits to the Bitcoiners because MSTR will just recycle the premium into Bitcoin, which it also personally holds.
If these ratios are correct (the balance between new liquidity coming in, and price sensitivity), you cannot hedge MSTR efficiently, meaning that MSTR is turning both long and short capital into a long capital ram pump.
On top of that, for every 10% that MSTR moves BTC price up, only 5% can go down in case of a bear market.
According to me, and Chat GPT, MSTR accounts for 30-40% of the Bitcoin market on the margin this bull run, and a total of 100B by MSTR and IBIT pushed the market cap of Bitcoin by 1T.
The thing is, even though so little actual capital is tied up to this immense market cap, about 30% of it or more (basically MSTR purchases) is only tied up in upwards direction but not downwards through MSTR debt.
Now, that's not perfect because it's still debt, but we are frontrunning. On top of that, all the "hedging" that these big institutions are doing are providing even more flooring for MSTR and for BTC.
I am expecting that this bull run, all of the corrections will be only 60% as large than compared to the last bull run.
Meaning that a 50% correction will now be more like a 30% correction, and 30% correction will be a 20% correction.
Note
I just want to add that I mentioned exchanges, but I forgot to mention OTC.
I can only track what's happening on exchanges, unfortunately, I have no idea about the OTC market.
Note
Price is 100% manipulated.
There is no Bitcoin in circulation, which means that Wall Street is determining the price while the NYSE is closed.
How do I know? I've been watching MSTR-BTC relation. BTC always comes back to the neutral price from the previous daily close of MSTR in order to make a discrepancy as small as possible.
Since there is a severe lack of retail investors, basically, Wall Street is using algos to force 15min and 1hr candles up and down in order to scoop some reflexivity one way or the other.
Since they are gambling with other peoples money, they have to put Bitcoin price back in place where it was once the market opens, so that MSTR or MSTR holders wouldn't have any extra opportunities to kill their positions.
It's a big club, and you ain't in it. But it's just temporary and their power is limited to 5% up/down + they can extend the sideways movement for some sustained periods of time like weeks, or in case of 68k, a couple of months.
This is just to earn money on option decay and option premiums, nothing more. They are basically scamming their own investors by showing the wrong Bitcoin price, because now they account for most of the market and they have good models of relation between actual capital inflows and price sensitivity (I have discussed this relation in previous posts).
So, we have to remain patient until they implode.
But there is no Bitcoin.
Note
Now we have a beautiful candle as a proof of manipulation lol.
MSTR shorts are off the chart btw XD
The squeeze will be legendary (unless wall street just makes their friends exit during closed hours like with GME stock). They basically just put their names in front of your orders...
Note
Here we go... :)
Note
The Trojan horse (MSTR) is in. Note
Lecture by John F. Nash Jr.
Ideal Money and Asymptotically Ideal Money
web.math.princeton.edu/jfnj/texts_and_graphics/Main.Content/IDEAL_MONEY.../Older/PENN_STATE/babu.money.b.pdf
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.