I wanna talk about a number that I see everywhere right now. 48k.
First I wanna say I am macro bearish on Bitcoin (macro chart). And I'm still net long on crypto. ETH long, BTC short.
Because I don't know when the macro turnaround will happen. I can only see it after a big top is already formed. Just stating this because I guess people misunderstand me.
Now, I believe the obvious 48k level should be nothing but a bait. "A bait for the bears or the bulls?" is still a question.
If it's a bait for the bulls, we'll never get close to it. It'll distribute right around here. And bulls will keep waiting for 48k. Just like the bears are still waiting for 12k.
If it's a bait for the bears, you'll see it being respected on at least higher timeframes. It'll eventually get broken. Then it'll start to consolidate below it. Bears will celebrate but market will continue higher after the consolidation.
In summary, if you are a bear, first of all, wait for the distribution to be confident. I believe it has to be well below 48k.
If you are a bull, don't get obsessed with 48k. Understand that market is up almost 200% in a year and the strongest phase of the trend is a very close phase of the trend to either distribution or reaccumulation. In any case, you have to be patient and careful.
First I wanna say I am macro bearish on Bitcoin (macro chart). And I'm still net long on crypto. ETH long, BTC short.
Because I don't know when the macro turnaround will happen. I can only see it after a big top is already formed. Just stating this because I guess people misunderstand me.
Now, I believe the obvious 48k level should be nothing but a bait. "A bait for the bears or the bulls?" is still a question.
If it's a bait for the bulls, we'll never get close to it. It'll distribute right around here. And bulls will keep waiting for 48k. Just like the bears are still waiting for 12k.
If it's a bait for the bears, you'll see it being respected on at least higher timeframes. It'll eventually get broken. Then it'll start to consolidate below it. Bears will celebrate but market will continue higher after the consolidation.
In summary, if you are a bear, first of all, wait for the distribution to be confident. I believe it has to be well below 48k.
If you are a bull, don't get obsessed with 48k. Understand that market is up almost 200% in a year and the strongest phase of the trend is a very close phase of the trend to either distribution or reaccumulation. In any case, you have to be patient and careful.
Note
And here is a hopium chart for the bulls. I'm not a believer in this. But it's a possibility.Note
You are just looking at a climax point and be like "Oh this is very important." You think there is no important price action around 43k? Look again.Note
Looks like my "I was wrong" post is coming soon about the bearish thesis :D Just waiting for confirmation.Note
My theory is this. Yes everyone is calling for 48k. But most people believe it'll be a turning point for crazy low targets. I bet it won't be. And most of the retail is still not interested in Bitcoin!I turned bullish not because of Bitcoin is 1k above my sell target. But I turned bullish because no one is still interested in selling at this point. I respect the strength and waiting for 58k for potential short setups.
Note
Long-term bulls starting to doubt this rally. Because they want a better macro bottom. Secretly or openly they know. It is short/mid-term bullish long-term bearish. Always has been. My target is higher now but the grand theory is still the same.Note
What's there to short really? Maybe I'm blind.Note
See Bitcoin short ETF. Nothing. Dead chart right now. There is no technical that makes me wanna short BTC right now. 
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.