Are we close to conclusion yet? 8 more days Halving!
Market daily update:
• 8 more days before halving!!! Can you feel the excitement? I do!
bitcoinblockhalf.com/
Also sentimental despite being a bit gloom (still) they keep on rising in stronger looking numbers, today: 44
alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index.png
(I will explain later why I think this is the hope phase before the next fall)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
- TA - Today I decided to open the 4h TF (Time frame):
• We see a Pennant have formed (Which is usually a continuation pattern, which should be bullish on our case):
1. Bullish: Since this is usually a continuation pattern, then we should at-least close above 9125 with enough volume, this move will bring us to at-least 9460, and then it can use the 4h cloud as support to push it much further up.
2. Breaking downwards should lead us towards the 4h cloud, if this happens then we most likely slice through the cloud as sentimentally it means the investors losing patience and the bulls lost their momentum.
• We also see the 4h cloud, but what is important for us about it and takes a key role in this triangle is the yellow line which is the slow MA of the 4h cloud (Base line / kijun line), every time we close below it there is usually a sharp red candle (+/- average of 275 size) which also leads to a small bearish trend, this is very dangerous for the triangle as it triggers a lot of other indications for much sharper fall..
Also do notice the orange line (e21), if we push below the yellow line, it will be enough to push below the orange line as well which will actually trigger sharper move downwards which I believe will break down the triangle towards the 4h cloud. So for the bulls there I hope we won’t close below the yellow line…
• I also notice that the OBV not only sharply halted and fell at peak, but also slowed down, to me it looks like the price is weakening, and OBV supports it as well…
• Also as you can see the VPVR doesn’t have much volume activity at these levels, and with not strong OBV I believe the 4h cloud cant hold a support here. Which means we might slice right through it all the way down to our next support.
• I would also want to mention that Dow-Jones and S&P are rallying right under the weekly e21, they recovered very nicely around the 35%+, and yet they act like the most drastic crushes and very familiar in many ways to 1929, so my overall thoughts on this is that they are almost at peak of the correction (Which by the way is the “hope” stage during crisis), I personally don’t think they can suppress the weekly e21 (Nor hold long above it), and if they fall, then BTC will fall together with them (This might accrue closer to the halving)…
Dow Jones: 1929 -
Dow Jones: Today -
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
- Overall:
The midterm trend on BTC is very bullish and might be wiser to follow it, but the lower TF (4h), and the bigger trend (Since 14k) are bearish to me.
As usually I continue focus on my shorts.
• 8 more days before halving!!! Can you feel the excitement? I do!
bitcoinblockhalf.com/
Also sentimental despite being a bit gloom (still) they keep on rising in stronger looking numbers, today: 44
alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index.png
(I will explain later why I think this is the hope phase before the next fall)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
- TA - Today I decided to open the 4h TF (Time frame):
• We see a Pennant have formed (Which is usually a continuation pattern, which should be bullish on our case):
1. Bullish: Since this is usually a continuation pattern, then we should at-least close above 9125 with enough volume, this move will bring us to at-least 9460, and then it can use the 4h cloud as support to push it much further up.
2. Breaking downwards should lead us towards the 4h cloud, if this happens then we most likely slice through the cloud as sentimentally it means the investors losing patience and the bulls lost their momentum.
• We also see the 4h cloud, but what is important for us about it and takes a key role in this triangle is the yellow line which is the slow MA of the 4h cloud (Base line / kijun line), every time we close below it there is usually a sharp red candle (+/- average of 275 size) which also leads to a small bearish trend, this is very dangerous for the triangle as it triggers a lot of other indications for much sharper fall..
Also do notice the orange line (e21), if we push below the yellow line, it will be enough to push below the orange line as well which will actually trigger sharper move downwards which I believe will break down the triangle towards the 4h cloud. So for the bulls there I hope we won’t close below the yellow line…
• I also notice that the OBV not only sharply halted and fell at peak, but also slowed down, to me it looks like the price is weakening, and OBV supports it as well…
• Also as you can see the VPVR doesn’t have much volume activity at these levels, and with not strong OBV I believe the 4h cloud cant hold a support here. Which means we might slice right through it all the way down to our next support.
• I would also want to mention that Dow-Jones and S&P are rallying right under the weekly e21, they recovered very nicely around the 35%+, and yet they act like the most drastic crushes and very familiar in many ways to 1929, so my overall thoughts on this is that they are almost at peak of the correction (Which by the way is the “hope” stage during crisis), I personally don’t think they can suppress the weekly e21 (Nor hold long above it), and if they fall, then BTC will fall together with them (This might accrue closer to the halving)…
Dow Jones: 1929 -
Dow Jones: Today -
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
- Overall:
The midterm trend on BTC is very bullish and might be wiser to follow it, but the lower TF (4h), and the bigger trend (Since 14k) are bearish to me.
As usually I continue focus on my shorts.
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