Bitcoin SHORT w/ Elliot Wave, Volume Divergence & Trend Line
Updated
Since the last bull run we can see a clear wave count on the chart, if the price cannot pass the 28500 level then we can confirm that all of the 5 waves are completed, and it is time for the correction.
Also the trend line of the two last higher highs projects the next possible higher high.
And maybe the most important thing is that as the price is going higher, the volume is getting lower (It is a bit more obvious on the Daily chart ). Why is it important? because it means there is no buyer at higher prices for pushing the price going higher. Although the last two days as weekends should have had lower volumes but tomorrow can confirm the volume theory more.
Considering risk to reward, going short is much safer than going long BUT it can also be considered counter trend.
One of the worst features of sudden moves is that there are no limit orders under the price to support the continuation of the price action and prevent the price from bouncing back hard. Currently there is no big buy orders on the order book of binance till 27000$.
Also waiting for the Fed Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday.
Also the trend line of the two last higher highs projects the next possible higher high.
And maybe the most important thing is that as the price is going higher, the volume is getting lower (It is a bit more obvious on the Daily chart ). Why is it important? because it means there is no buyer at higher prices for pushing the price going higher. Although the last two days as weekends should have had lower volumes but tomorrow can confirm the volume theory more.
Considering risk to reward, going short is much safer than going long BUT it can also be considered counter trend.
One of the worst features of sudden moves is that there are no limit orders under the price to support the continuation of the price action and prevent the price from bouncing back hard. Currently there is no big buy orders on the order book of binance till 27000$.
Also waiting for the Fed Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday.
Note
In almost all of the major exchanges the volume is decreasing... Let's see what happens today.Note
Although the stoploss was touched but we have a correction after that. It can go back top from here but I don't think there was enough volume for that as still in lower timeframes as the price goes higher volume decreases, as a result I think it is more probable that we might have another leg down to the targets (or near them). The problem is the volume is very very low recently like the few hours before the FED meeting. Note
Candles look like a shitcoin...Trade closed manually
Market seems to be switched back onand this is NOT bearish
Note
Bitcoin just moved about 15% in less than 24 hours. And the volume is still decreasing!I recommend reading this post for a better understanding about limit and market orders on the orderbook then I try to explain what happend:
Limit buy orders prevent price from going lower and want lower buy price
market buy orders push the price higher because they think it will go higher
limit sell orders prevent price from going higher and want higher sell price
market sell orders push the price lower because they think it will go lower
The only reasonable explanation here is that since we had a long run on the price going up, most of the buy orders were done during this movement starting 20000. When the price dumped from 28800 to 26700 all of the buy limit orders on the order book were filled, now since the price is coming down from top there is no sell limit orders on the order book behind it to prevent it from going back up. So, it will cost less BTC to push the price higher till where it was before the dump right at 28800! That being said, only 28900 has all the untouched limit order sells on the order book to change the direction AGAIN!
Almost every cause pointed for a correction in this setup as the first post is still in play, BUT we just witnessed a 15% price action in less than 24 hours. That should change something?...
Personally, I consider any candle on the 15 seconds chart with 800-1000 BTC volume a movement cause by the market maker. Because it is a market buy with that much of volume on an order book with limit orders on the price.
Usually on the order book there was about 200-300 btc limit orders both at buy and sell sizes. When there is a huge order like that, means that someone! wants that resistance to be broken!
Note
remember this?price action got support exactly there:
market maker is pushing the price higher step by step
the only one who knows how much iceberg sell limit order is waiting at 28900 is the exchange itself. nobody else!
Note
and isn't it interesting that comparing to the big volume candles, (almost only) binance has relatively low volume on the recent dump despite other exchanges?Note
Binance:We are aware of an issue impacting spot trading on Binance.
All spot trading is currently temporarily suspended as we work to resolve this as soon as possible.
New updates will be shared here.
__________________________________________________
CZ
Initial analysis indicates matching engine encountered a bug on a trailing stop order (a weird one). Recovering. Est 30-120 min ish. Waiting for more precise ETA.
Deposits & withdrawals are paused as a SOP (standard operating procedure). Funds are #SAFU. 🙏
twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1639235255054860290
Note
What a Nice day :))Note
This is an interesting fact that even with binance (with deepest volume) out of the picture, bitcoin price is supported at 27500$. All my conspiracy theories were based on binance... There may be a temporary sell pressure after binance spot is back online for those who do not trust binance anymore.Note
What about this update?Note
About the VolumeSince binance has ended zero fee on BTCUSDT (binance.com/en/support/announcement/updates-on-zero-fee-bitcoin-trading-busd-zero-maker-fee-promotion-be13a645cca643d28eab5b9b34f2dc36), its volume became much less and less on the BTCUSDT symbol. And we saw that market was almost not moving at all when binance spot was stopped because of the bug until the official announcement!
It looks like HFT bots or any low timeframe trades are transferred to the new BUSD replacement pair as BTCTUSD, it's volume is rising and lower timeframes like 15s are moving more than the high volume pair.
All being said is for understanding the volume of the last support at 27000. We interpret volume relative to the previous candles, but the situation has changed a bit.
It can also mean that there is more volume transferring to the TUSD pair as the time goes by.
All major exchanges experiencing lower volume at the recent 27000 support.
At bottom, high volume can mean the continuation of price movement but very very large volume then followed with higher lows can mean a pivot and trend change.
But when there is low volume as bottom, it means there is not much market sell at that price for pulling the price lower.
Overall going lower is more probable.
Would be glad to hear your opinions.
Note
This maybe the last moments before breakout in any direction in the following 2 days, and it will require a high-volume candle to confirm, maybe at least 20K on a 4H candle imo.Note
Finally the dump begins...let's see how far it will go
according to the tensorcharts.com/ there is 1.1K maker on 25400 for binance right now!
Note
A new channel has appeared. Considering this structure...Note
Dollar down, Bond Up, Gold Up, BTC? nah Kim said nice(t.me/kimoncrypto/4349):
"When you see that #DOGE only pumps 30% after it's logo is a new logo of Twitter, you know how far from bull market we are.
If it was a bull market, #DOGE would at least double."
Note
another triangle on the chart:currently main support and resistances based on the orderbook:
26000
26500
27000
27500 - 27700
28600 - 28800
29100
30100
Trade closed: stop reached
This setup is not valid anymore. Described more here:
nfa & dyor
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