BTC potential IH$S - If 60k bounce: 71k target
Updated
BTCUSDT 4H AnalysisNOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
TL;DR BTC continues moving downwards towards the 60k mark. A bounce there would validate the IH&S pattern and open the way for a W3 to 71k.
- We have a lot of confluence:
- On top of being the right shoulder of the IH&S pattern, a retrace to 60k would be 0.618 fib of the last leg up
- We are seeing some support from the 50VWMA (yellow), very close to the 60k mark (currently 60.7k)
- TD Sequential just printed a perfect Buy Setup (red M9), indicating a potential reversal. You can see on the chart how accurate its previous signals have been
- RSI is nearly oversold (currently ~35)
- Both the MACD and its signal line are in the negative. Once we have a crossover, the further below 0 it happens, the stronger the reversal confirmation will be
Note
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
TL;DR This could be a huge week for #BTC.
Elliot Waves + IH&S playing out perfectly so far. W3 short term target to 71k, W5 target could be new ATH.
- The IH&S we spotted 2 weeks ago is still playing out perfectly, we broke the neckline with a high volume candle and the W3 target is still 71k.
- The current supports are the right shoulder LH (65.5k) and the 50-day VWMA (
65K, yellow line). - The current resistance is the left shoulder LH and 1.236 fib of W1 (67.5k), if broken the next stop is 71k.
- If Elliot Waves keep playing out, after W3 to 71k, we can expect a W4 retrace to the $66.5 - $65.5 area, followed by a W5 to ATH or above. (~74k)
- The daily RSI is sitting at a comfortable 58, which should allow plenty of room for these moves.
Note
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
TL;DR If the local bottom is in above 66k, W5 target will be between 73.3k and 75.5k 🎯
- BTC is showing a textbook Elliot Impulse Wave since the IH&S head at 56k. All the rules and typical fibonacci retracement levels have been respected with very high precision.
- If the bottom of the recent retrace is in at 66.3k, it would match almost perfectly W4 typical behavior (0.5 fib of W3). This would hold true even with a continuation of the dip to 66k.
- W5 is typically inverse 1.236 – 1.618 of W4, placing our target between 73.3k and 75.5k (ATH or above).
- If all the above conditions are met and we reach the W5 target, we can expect a three wave correction to follow.
Note
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
TL;DR F&P with 94k target
🎯 My short term targets for #BTC are still 73.3k-75.5k, followed by a potential 3-wave correction
⛳️ Zooming out a little though, I see a beautiful Bull Flag & Pole pattern with a 94k target
The following would still fit perfectly with my short term target, assuming a breakout happens soon:
- BTC to 73.3k-75.5k
- 3-wave correction to the 70k area and retest of the resistance 🟠 as support
- Continuation towards 94k
Take it with a grain of salt as targets will change depending on when we the breakout happens 🧂
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