Updated

Next Volatility Period: Starting around March 15

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(BTCUSDT 1W chart)

The key is whether it can receive support and rise near the 2nd section.

If not, it is expected to eventually meet the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart and determine the trend again.

As a result, I think it is highly likely that it will meet the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart near 73499.86.

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(BTCUSD 1W chart)

This is the second time that the StochRSI indicator has been maintained at the lowest point (0).

This means that the decline is strong.

In the case of 2014, it formed a bottom section about 15 weeks after that.

We will also have to watch to see if the HA-Low indicator on the 1W chart is generated due to this decline.

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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)

The key is whether it can be supported near the Fibonacci ratio range of 1.414 (79902.66) ~ 2 (80999.68) and rise above 84349.94.

If not, I think it is highly likely that the trend will be determined again when it meets the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart near 73499.86.

The next volatility period is expected to start around March 15 (March 14-16) and continue around March 25 (March 24-26).

The point of interest is whether it can break out of the downward channel after this volatility period.

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Following USDT, USDC is also renewing its ATH.

I think this is a sign that a lot of money is flowing into the coin market.

Therefore, even if the current coin market falls, if USDT and USDC maintain their gap upward trend, the coin market is expected to recover quickly.

Accordingly, we need to think about ways to increase the number of coins (tokens) currently held.

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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful transaction.

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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.

(BTCUSD 12M chart)

Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015.

In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year upward trend and faces a 1-year downward trend.

Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025.

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(LOG chart)

Looking at the LOG chart, we can see that the upward trend is decreasing.

Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.

Therefore, it is expected that prices below 44K-48K will not be seen in the future.

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The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.

In other words, it is the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.

The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.

Therefore, it is expected that this Fibonacci ratio will be used until 2026.

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No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.

It is up to you how to view and respond to this.

If the ATH is renewed, there are no support and resistance points, so the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.

However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as support and resistance.

The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to generate Fibonacci.

Therefore, since it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection points, it can be useful for chart analysis, but it can be seen as ambiguous to use it for trading strategies.

1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15

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Trade active

#BTCUSDT

In order to turn into an uptrend, it must rise above the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart.

Eventually, it must be supported near the Fibonacci ratio range of 2.618 (87814.27) ~ 1.618 (89050.0).

If not, and it falls,

1st: 78595.86
2nd: 73499.86
We need to check whether it can be supported near the 1st and 2nd above.

Since the StochRSI indicator has entered the oversold range, it is important to see whether it is supported near the current price level.

In other words, we need to see whether it moves sideways from the 79.9K-81K to the 83.6K range until the next volatility period, around March 15.

Note

#BTCUSDT

Money is flowing into the coin market, but the price is falling.

If we interpret it excluding issues other than the chart, I think there is a change of power.

It seems to be a way to buy more coins in a short period of time.

As I mentioned earlier, we need to see if we can lay the foundation for an upward turn around March 15 (March 14-16), the next volatility period, around 79.9K-83.6K.

It is expected that after March 15, we will have an opportunity to see if we can break out of the downward channel around March 22-25.

USDT and USDC are both maintaining gap uptrends.

Note

#BTCUSDT.P 30m

I think it is less reliable because it has not touched the BW(100) indicator or the HA-High indicator and has not shown any signs of falling.

Therefore, I think the start of the downtrend is likely to start by falling below the HA-High indicator point of 82908.2.

If it succeeds in rising above the BW(100) indicator point of 84021.3, there is a possibility that an uptrend will begin.

If not, there is a possibility that a downtrend will begin.

Therefore, I think the trading point is around 84021.3, 82908.2.

Note

#BTCUSDT.P

To conduct a buy (LONG) transaction,
- When the BW (0) indicator confirms support,
- When the HA-Low indicator confirms support,
- When the Trend Cloud indicator changes to a rising sign (Green) and the price is maintained above it,
When the conditions above are satisfied, trading is possible.

To conduct a sell (SHORT) transaction,
- When the BW (100) indicator confirms resistance,
- When the HA-High indicator confirms resistance,
- When the Trend Cloud indicator changes to a falling sign (Red) and the price is maintained below it,
When the conditions above are satisfied, trading is possible.

To apply the above to a transaction, you need to spend a lot of time observing.

Otherwise, it can actually interfere with the transaction.

For all transactions, you should first think about the stop loss point in case it does not proceed in the desired direction and then proceed with the transaction.

If you cannot specify a stop loss point, it is better not to trade at all.

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If you proceed with a trade when the HA-High, HA-Low indicators are touched and only the BW(0), BW(100) indicators are touched, you should proceed with the trade with the mindset of aggressively shorting and trading.

When the HA-High indicator is touched for the first time, it usually shows a downward trend.

After that, when it rises and touches the HA-High indicator, if the StochRSI indicator is in the overbought zone, even if there is an additional rise, it is likely to fall shortly.

At this time, you can proceed with the trade depending on whether the HA-High indicator supports it.

Note

#BTCUSDT

This volatility period is expected to last until March 16th.

The important thing is whether it can break out of the downtrend channel during the next volatility period, around March 22nd-25th (maximum March 21st-26th).

Note

#BTCUSDT

The next volatility period is expected to be around March 22-25 (maximum March 21-26).

Accordingly, the point of interest is whether the price can be maintained above the downward channel even after the next volatility period.

If not, it is likely to lead to further declines.

Currently, the StochRSI indicator has entered the overbought zone, so it is important to maintain the price by breaking out of the downward channel in order to have a high possibility of turning into an uptrend.

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