I have changed from short to Neutral based on the last movement as it is about a coin flip at this point. I see many trade targets were hit and they are closing positions or close to this. Again this is not about being right or wrong. I think many new to trading think it's about being right or being wrong. That's not trading that's gambling! It's about keeping your emotions under control, tight money management and being able to adjust as the market changes. Sean Vengan's trade had a plan and strategy to implement other TA's as well. Please beware of impostors.
So why now have I gone to a coin flip. Very simple, we past through the $4553 target and it has held. What it does from here nobody knows. I could give you my opinion but that's only my opinion. What I will offer is how you yourself can monitor how the market is moving and position yourself accordingly now that we hit our reflection level. More importantly we stayed calm and allowed the market to evolve. I am, as many of you are, bringing fresh money to the space. I entered a position and have 2 more blocks to throw in. Some I am moving in today. Not necessarily Bitcoin as I'll explain later.
I've laid out the two most probable scenarios keeping in mind there are an infinite number. I'll be honest this is the only count I like at this point in the short to mid term. I first threw on a linear regression channel to provide guidance of the move. (not a trend) I also marked the target level for a wave 5 extension based on the extension of wave 4 and the length of wave 1. These are typical termination points but not necessarily THE termination level. $4700 as we have said tilts the probability of a bull run to $5500-$6200 to greater than a correction. $4100 is now the level which needs to hold for the bull to remain in tact. A break of $4100 tilts highly in the favor of the Bears. I'm monitoring 3 indicators and HMA's. One specifically adjusted for the 5th wave (short term) and one for the overall mid term bull movement. I'm also monitoring the strength of the movements for signs of weakening or strength. Volume continues to decrease as the chart shows, so this is still a VERY MIXED MARKET. Do not let FOMO or FOLYA get to you.
From the Sept 13th post and during writing BEFORE it dipped to our $2985 target level. I mentioned these two recommendations. NEITHER WERE GO SHORT THE MARKET as many impostors try to imply!
#1 "If you are 100% invested because you just don't have the funds to trade. I recommend insuring your in solid coins, and closing your computer."
#2 "If you have the money and are 100% invested, do NOT sell strong coins here. Get rid of the losers, and get that to cash. You know the one down 75% because you invested on news ( MCO 0.27% come to mind). Many make the mistake of selling their winners at this point, and holding onto losers. This will result in losing more. You wouldn't cut your best player because the team is performing badly would you? No. The best lessons in life are the most expensive as education is not cheap. You must manage wisely and this for many will be their first lesson in account management."
Portfolio management is critical many of the strong coin are now back to where we were when this started. Moreover if you sold your losers you have a bunch of cash to bottom feed for good coins. NEO OMG LTC and many others are either where they were shortly after the selloff, or have held through the selloff. This is why you sell losers and not winners and get rid of junk! As I mentioned the other day I exited all trades to see how the market reacted, nothing like being in 70% core holdings and 30% Cash right now. I picked up some NEO and OMG. So I will be transferring Cash to cover these. I still have 60% of my overall allocation to come into the market. I'm patient and I am closely monitoring the charts.
It's about risk reward - And I have laid that out for new money coming in on previous posts!
So why now have I gone to a coin flip. Very simple, we past through the $4553 target and it has held. What it does from here nobody knows. I could give you my opinion but that's only my opinion. What I will offer is how you yourself can monitor how the market is moving and position yourself accordingly now that we hit our reflection level. More importantly we stayed calm and allowed the market to evolve. I am, as many of you are, bringing fresh money to the space. I entered a position and have 2 more blocks to throw in. Some I am moving in today. Not necessarily Bitcoin as I'll explain later.
I've laid out the two most probable scenarios keeping in mind there are an infinite number. I'll be honest this is the only count I like at this point in the short to mid term. I first threw on a linear regression channel to provide guidance of the move. (not a trend) I also marked the target level for a wave 5 extension based on the extension of wave 4 and the length of wave 1. These are typical termination points but not necessarily THE termination level. $4700 as we have said tilts the probability of a bull run to $5500-$6200 to greater than a correction. $4100 is now the level which needs to hold for the bull to remain in tact. A break of $4100 tilts highly in the favor of the Bears. I'm monitoring 3 indicators and HMA's. One specifically adjusted for the 5th wave (short term) and one for the overall mid term bull movement. I'm also monitoring the strength of the movements for signs of weakening or strength. Volume continues to decrease as the chart shows, so this is still a VERY MIXED MARKET. Do not let FOMO or FOLYA get to you.
From the Sept 13th post and during writing BEFORE it dipped to our $2985 target level. I mentioned these two recommendations. NEITHER WERE GO SHORT THE MARKET as many impostors try to imply!
#1 "If you are 100% invested because you just don't have the funds to trade. I recommend insuring your in solid coins, and closing your computer."
#2 "If you have the money and are 100% invested, do NOT sell strong coins here. Get rid of the losers, and get that to cash. You know the one down 75% because you invested on news ( MCO 0.27% come to mind). Many make the mistake of selling their winners at this point, and holding onto losers. This will result in losing more. You wouldn't cut your best player because the team is performing badly would you? No. The best lessons in life are the most expensive as education is not cheap. You must manage wisely and this for many will be their first lesson in account management."
Portfolio management is critical many of the strong coin are now back to where we were when this started. Moreover if you sold your losers you have a bunch of cash to bottom feed for good coins. NEO OMG LTC and many others are either where they were shortly after the selloff, or have held through the selloff. This is why you sell losers and not winners and get rid of junk! As I mentioned the other day I exited all trades to see how the market reacted, nothing like being in 70% core holdings and 30% Cash right now. I picked up some NEO and OMG. So I will be transferring Cash to cover these. I still have 60% of my overall allocation to come into the market. I'm patient and I am closely monitoring the charts.
It's about risk reward - And I have laid that out for new money coming in on previous posts!
Note
$4100 is wave 1 that's how we arrived at it.Note
Keep in mind many of these "TA's" that post are kids that do not understand what it is like to bring into a new market $40-100k. You know who they are the are quick to point out how right they are but disappear when things go wrong. You can see how they manage that tells the tale. Nobody in their right mind is dumping 40-100k in this market right now. I would rather leave 15% on the table for the run to $6000 making 35% in lieu of 50% than find myself down 50% where I have to make 100% to get back to even. WITH A BIG CHUNK OF BANK. Also the risk reward is clearly tilted to hold off still at this point and come in slowly if you missed $3000. IT WILL HAPPEN AGAIN!Note
I am not recommending selling your altcoins at this point, #2 was from my Sept 13th post. It was intended to weed out garbage coins that had underperformed, Not the intent to sell coins now, but you should always review and weed you speculative stuff! If they have bottomed and you have reason to believe they are going up, then I wouldn't sell now!Note
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.