$BTC is about to do a 12% to 27% correction (high probability)
Check the chart. We are still in this descending wedge channel, and to go higher, we need to break through the top resistance.
We may succeed and reach 100k, and the bull run could finish next week. Or we may continue to consolidate. This idea focuses on the second possibility.
- Moon boys are all chanting 81k, 100k again. That is a sign that the market is ripe to wreck them.
- Whales have accumulated a lot of
BTC at the bottom and all the way up from the last correction. They will take profit at some point now that many buyers have stepped in, ready to be wrecked.
- The market sentiment is at 75, which is euphoria. A perfect time to wreck the herd.
About the chart:
- The MACD is overheated on 4h and 1D timeframes. A reset lower is unavoidable.
- The RSI is overheated too after this huge pump from 55k to 70k.
The similar conjunction of both MACD and RSI being extremely overbought has resulted in corrections in the past. The question is not if there will be a correction but when.
Ideally, it should happen when we get rejected by the top resistance at the last cycle ATH or a little higher. There are a lot of shorts to be liquidated at this level, so it might pushBTC higher technically.
The correction can be moderate. In that case, it will be a return to the middle of the channel where there is a support line. That would be the green scenario with a -12% correction.
The worst scenario would be to bounce on the middle of the channel by the support and be rejected a second time at the resistance, forming a double top. This would result in a harsher correction to the bottom of the wedge with a 27% drop.
Remember that all of this is scripted. Whales have enoughBTC and enough liquidity to manipulate the value of BTC as they wish, especially the big exchanges. So the German selling or Mt. Gox stories are just distractions; the exchanges are doing what they want to make money.
The fact that no one would sell theirBTC at this stage of the market is irrelevant. They will sell to get your money because you will sell in panic. Then they will buy again lower and push the price up like they did before. That is how they are making billions.
DYOR always.
We may succeed and reach 100k, and the bull run could finish next week. Or we may continue to consolidate. This idea focuses on the second possibility.
- Moon boys are all chanting 81k, 100k again. That is a sign that the market is ripe to wreck them.
- Whales have accumulated a lot of
BTC at the bottom and all the way up from the last correction. They will take profit at some point now that many buyers have stepped in, ready to be wrecked.- The market sentiment is at 75, which is euphoria. A perfect time to wreck the herd.
About the chart:
- The MACD is overheated on 4h and 1D timeframes. A reset lower is unavoidable.
- The RSI is overheated too after this huge pump from 55k to 70k.
The similar conjunction of both MACD and RSI being extremely overbought has resulted in corrections in the past. The question is not if there will be a correction but when.
Ideally, it should happen when we get rejected by the top resistance at the last cycle ATH or a little higher. There are a lot of shorts to be liquidated at this level, so it might push
BTC higher technically.The correction can be moderate. In that case, it will be a return to the middle of the channel where there is a support line. That would be the green scenario with a -12% correction.
The worst scenario would be to bounce on the middle of the channel by the support and be rejected a second time at the resistance, forming a double top. This would result in a harsher correction to the bottom of the wedge with a 27% drop.
Remember that all of this is scripted. Whales have enough
BTC and enough liquidity to manipulate the value of BTC as they wish, especially the big exchanges. So the German selling or Mt. Gox stories are just distractions; the exchanges are doing what they want to make money.The fact that no one would sell their
BTC at this stage of the market is irrelevant. They will sell to get your money because you will sell in panic. Then they will buy again lower and push the price up like they did before. That is how they are making billions.DYOR always.
Note
Correction is on the way. Possible that it will be a small one. Too many bullish news coming. I don't see this correction lasting a week!Note
BTC is at resistance. It might stop here or dump lower.In any case, it will pump back tp 70k, so unless you are a day trader, wait and see is the best solution.
There is no certainty that we will get another shot at 55k. I keep 30% in cash just in case there is a buy the dip opportunity.
Note
MT.Gox has started to send BTC to their owners who have waited over 10 years to receive them. What will be the consequence?- I think they will sell about 20%. Not more, because if they have survived 10 years without them, they can wait for the top of the bull run to sell.
- About 20% will likely sell to diversify their portfolios with other coins, benefiting altcoins. The top ones (top 100) are most likely to benefit since the coins are vested in exchanges that are not listing mid and small caps.
The impact of Mt.Gox should be limited, unless market makers decide to dump to gain liquidity at the bottom, but that is a manipulation strategy and is impossible to forecast.
Note
61.5k is a strong resistance, let's hope that BTC will hold that price and not go lowerNote
100% accuracy so far, we hit and bounce on my median support. I expect a bounce, or a continuation to the bottom of the falling wedge. I have refilled my altcoin bag. check my other idea to see my buy targets.Note
Are we going to bounce back on the middle of the channel or continue to 70k?
So far BTC is following the plan. I think that another visit to 71k is the most probable scenario. Then prepare your stop loss, as it will probably be rejected again.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.