Bitcoin / USDTLong
100k after election or 6-12-months-Bart Simpson and Bull Flag.
Our Current Situation
Trading in a consolidating range can be really dangerous, especially if your emotions get the better of you (we have all been there). Hopefully, you have been careful with the risk. Trading a market in consolidation is rarely recommended; however, confidence in our trades should always be the most important factor before entering a position. So if you think it's right—go ahead. But the benefit of high probability is usually a strong challenge for most traders in a consolidating range, which is why it's not recommended by many traders.
Continuing on the sub-topic of probabilities, I have learned from both failure and success that having patience is a necessity for good probability trades. This is why I want to zoom out to discuss my thoughts on how to trade the breakout from the current consolidation range. Before we delve into that, I will provide a broader view of the chart.
Bull Market (GREEN ARROW)
One could argue that we have been in a bull market since November 2022. We have experienced lower lows and higher highs. From October 2023 until March 2024, we’ve had a strong uptrend. However, from March 2024 until today (October 2024), we have been in a consolidating range. As a result, you might ask:
Is this range going to break out as a Bart Simpson or bull flag pattern?
Bart Simpson Scenario (Bear Target):
The market structure in the Bart Simpson pattern is generally characterized by unpredictability and low-liquidity environments, which are often amplified by market manipulation.
What if we end up creating the Bart Simpson?
Price Target, $22,826: Look for shorts from major resistance all the way down to potentially the "Point of Control" (POC) for the current bull run. I will be watching for good swings.
Does this mean that the bull market is over?
I don’t think so. Touching the Point of Control (POC) is usually a healthy move before a trend continuation. Hence, the bull market will still be in play. The market sentiment may, however, be very dry, but when we get a sharp, strong swing up, FOMO will build, and this is when we will see the price skyrocket to over 100k.
Bull Flag Pattern Scenario (Bull Target):
A bull flag pattern is typically a continuation pattern in an uptrend. It begins with a strong upward movement (the flagpole), then consolidates or retraces slightly in a downward channel (the flag). After this period of consolidation, it often breaks out to the upside, continuing the trend.
All the points above describe the current situation when looking at the chart. We have a pole and a downward channel that retraces slightly downward. There are billions of dollars of liquidity at the LH zones—the area of major resistance—which means we might hit it soon or use it as fuel after reaching the POC (Bart Simpson scenario).
Price Target - 100k: If I were to trade the bull flag pattern, I would wait for the higher high (HH) to be broken. This way, I can hold until 100k, depending on how the market dynamics change.
PS: Major support could be a good entry price if the dynamics in this hypothesis changes. In other words, the bart simpson pattern does not play out.
Trading in a consolidating range can be really dangerous, especially if your emotions get the better of you (we have all been there). Hopefully, you have been careful with the risk. Trading a market in consolidation is rarely recommended; however, confidence in our trades should always be the most important factor before entering a position. So if you think it's right—go ahead. But the benefit of high probability is usually a strong challenge for most traders in a consolidating range, which is why it's not recommended by many traders.
Continuing on the sub-topic of probabilities, I have learned from both failure and success that having patience is a necessity for good probability trades. This is why I want to zoom out to discuss my thoughts on how to trade the breakout from the current consolidation range. Before we delve into that, I will provide a broader view of the chart.
Bull Market (GREEN ARROW)
One could argue that we have been in a bull market since November 2022. We have experienced lower lows and higher highs. From October 2023 until March 2024, we’ve had a strong uptrend. However, from March 2024 until today (October 2024), we have been in a consolidating range. As a result, you might ask:
Is this range going to break out as a Bart Simpson or bull flag pattern?
Bart Simpson Scenario (Bear Target):
The market structure in the Bart Simpson pattern is generally characterized by unpredictability and low-liquidity environments, which are often amplified by market manipulation.
- Unpredictability (Yes): The market sentiment on Twitter and mainstream news seems to be very bullish due to the halving event (which reduces supply and increases scarcity) and the fact that Trump is very pro-Bitcoin (wanting to incorporate BTC as a strategic national reserve)—he is currently leading in the presidential polls. Additionally, geopolitical tensions between nations (Israel and Iran, Russia and Ukraine) are creating discussions about a potential world war. Another topic is inflation. It seems that the market is unsure about which direction to take, confirming some unpredictability in the current range (March 2024 to October 2024).
- Low Liquidity and Market Manipulation (Yes): The Bart Simpson pattern thrives in low-liquidity environments, where prices can be more easily manipulated. Currently, factors like geopolitical tensions (Israel-Iran, Russia-Ukraine), inflation concerns, and uncertain macro conditions are deterring institutional investors, reducing overall market liquidity. With mostly retail participation and speculation surrounding the Bitcoin halving and Trump’s potential Bitcoin policies, the market is primed for sharp, unpredictable moves. In this environment, “whales” can manipulate prices more easily, prompting a potential sudden reversal.
What if we end up creating the Bart Simpson?
Price Target, $22,826: Look for shorts from major resistance all the way down to potentially the "Point of Control" (POC) for the current bull run. I will be watching for good swings.
Does this mean that the bull market is over?
I don’t think so. Touching the Point of Control (POC) is usually a healthy move before a trend continuation. Hence, the bull market will still be in play. The market sentiment may, however, be very dry, but when we get a sharp, strong swing up, FOMO will build, and this is when we will see the price skyrocket to over 100k.
Bull Flag Pattern Scenario (Bull Target):
A bull flag pattern is typically a continuation pattern in an uptrend. It begins with a strong upward movement (the flagpole), then consolidates or retraces slightly in a downward channel (the flag). After this period of consolidation, it often breaks out to the upside, continuing the trend.
All the points above describe the current situation when looking at the chart. We have a pole and a downward channel that retraces slightly downward. There are billions of dollars of liquidity at the LH zones—the area of major resistance—which means we might hit it soon or use it as fuel after reaching the POC (Bart Simpson scenario).
Price Target - 100k: If I were to trade the bull flag pattern, I would wait for the higher high (HH) to be broken. This way, I can hold until 100k, depending on how the market dynamics change.
PS: Major support could be a good entry price if the dynamics in this hypothesis changes. In other words, the bart simpson pattern does not play out.
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