Long

Bitcoin ETF: to be or not to be?

Updated

If the ETF is allowed, then the “buy the rumors, sell the facts” strategy will work. After the ETF is approved, Bitcoin will skyrocket because amateurs will buy it. Then it will collapse because professionals will take profits. If the ETF is not allowed, Bitcoin will simply collapse.

Let's try to determine the actions of pumpers and dumpers using tick charts with volumes and the number of transactions per minute.

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BlackRock met with SEC officials to discuss spot Bitcoin ETF. Representatives from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission also met with Grayscale on Nov. 20 in the asset manager’s bid for listing a Bitcoin ETF.
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At the time of publication of the news, Bitcoin was actively bought. The mood is positive.

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The assault on 38,000 is underway. Let's see who will have more money in the end - the pumpers or the dumpers. Based on the dynamics in the area of 38-39K, it will be possible to draw conclusions about further scenarios.

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Target levels.

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I assume that if they don’t immediately pump to the area of 41200 and get stuck in the area of 37-39K, then the ETF is postponed and the cue ball is shoved into the hamsters’ cheeks before the dump break until the next pump on the ETF topic.

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The sellers overcame the volumes and spent approximately 2,000 BTC on the breakout. Not much, the bears' resistance is relatively weak.

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We grew to around 38,000 on small volumes. Above 38,000, volumes and activity have already become greater, but so far the situation does not lend itself to a good entry for dumpers.

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We pushed off from the support at 37550 and successfully pumped the resistance at 38450. Going up with a potential payout of 1:10, 1000% for a night trade. Now let’s see if the shorts’ stops have simply gathered around 38450 or if there is strength to continue the pump higher. Let me remind you that 38800 is the target level of the last long-term range. In this area, it makes sense to take profit on longs from 24800 with a target of 38800.

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A stable consolidation above 38800 will be a good bullish signal, because long-term pumps are still refusing to take profits. Fluctuations in the 35000-38800 zone could be considered profit-taking if significant volumes were traded on dumps. But I haven’t noticed such large deals yet.

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There was no increased trading volume in the 38800 area. The shortists' stops were placed at the level of 38500 and in the zone of 38700-38800, taking the pump profit. There was no point in pumping above 38800. Next, we trade using technology, until any significant news comes out.

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We pumped from 38,200 to 39,000 and immediately took profits, turning around 1,000 BTC and pushing the price down by $350. There is no great demand. We can assume that they will continue to break through with small movements - now a pump, now a dump, but pumping is still much easier and cheaper.

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At the fine Saturday market, pumpers organized a successful pump. There were good sales volumes in the 39100-39200 zone, but the pumps overcame the resistance. Then there were sales in the 39500 zone, and only at 39700 did the pumpers run out of money and began to take profits with a rollback from 39700 to 39100. The total turnover of the entire pump was around 5000 BTC, a decent amount. An easy return of the price from 39100 to the area of 39700, on small volumes, may indicate that dumpers bought everything they could buy and left the game. The rise to the technical target of 41200 could be very easy.

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We continued to pump fearlessly at night in the thin market. The amounts for buying are quite large - around 4000 BTC for one pump removal of the stock order book with purchases. I think they don’t take the profit from the pumps completely and rely on fomo from the laymen in order to fix the profit later, without significant price drops. Therefore, there is a high probability that the pumps will continue.

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The first profit taking was sales with a turnover of 4000 BTC and a drawdown of approximately $650. Demand for Bitcoin is still good.

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If we take 38400 as the acceleration point, then the technical goal of the pump has been achieved.

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Local support 41500. I would update the maximum of 24 hours in order to record the profit of pumps on the crowd as they grow.

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While the bears are pushing the price down, the bulls are quite active and are buying back levels. Now the bulls have held 41200 and selected the order book with purchases of 300 BTC more than they pushed through with sales. Perhaps the bears will draw a small 3W model down.

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Over the weekend, the bulls bought 9000-10000 BTC during the pumps. We sold approximately 1000-2000 BTC. If the idea was to raise the price on a thin market and cause fomo, then the pump was a success. If the organizers of the pump believe in long-term growth in anticipation of ETF adoption, then they will not sell approximately 8,000 BTC in the coming days and there will be no obvious dumps. If their plan was to enter quickly and exit quickly, then we will see a series of dumps or one strong dump in the coming days. A rollback of Bitcoin downwards by $2500-3000 will not fundamentally spoil anything, since there is a lot of time before the ETF is adopted around January 10 and you can play football very actively with the price of Bitcoin.

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Be traders, calm and detached. But don't be fanatics! A small note designed to add peace of mind so that you can take your profits on time and not succumb to the general hype.

RESULT OF THE FIRST CRYPTOCURRENCY REVOLUTION.

While cryptomaniacs rejoice at the Bitcoin pump and wait for the approval of the Bitcoin ETF so that large funds can sell rich hamsters digital gold at a decent profit for themselves, it is worth considering the outcome of the first phase of the cryptocurrency revolution in order not to succumb to the general positivity and hype of crypto hamsters.

Let's start with the very basics: in what cases do you need cryptocurrency and blockchain?

1. If you need to organize a project, the organizer and leader of which may be a fraudster. If the project is run by honest people and they follow the laws, then neither blockchain nor cryptocurrency is needed.

2. If you need to give potential fraudsters the opportunity to use blockchain and cryptocurrency, but so that their attempts to steal or seize control are blocked by blockchain technology.

3. If it is necessary to enable the transfer of conditional digital values from one user to another, contrary to government prohibitions. For example, a USDT transfer that will be blocked by banks or regulated payment networks.
In all other cases, there is no point in blockchain.

Have the current blockchains and cryptocurrencies managed to show themselves in all their beauty in those cases for which they seem to be needed?

1. Protection from scammers organizing blockchain.

The mission failed, as a huge number of projects became scams and led to the loss of money of laymen who believed the scammers. If the project has not yet been scammed, then there is always the possibility of hacking, scams due to deliberate filling of holes by developers, and closure of the project due to the fact that the project did not take off and became uninteresting.

Bitcoin is considered to be reinforced concrete, but for some reason the Bitcoin blockchain is designed in such a way that control over the main issue of Bitcoin is given to the organizers, who spend a minimum of effort on mining. The main costs of supporting the network are borne by late miners, who in turn will be screwed by ASIC sellers. And it so interestingly happened that the main holders of Bitcoin are controlled by the United States and bets on the price of Bitcoin were allowed without problems on US exchanges. This means that the price of Bitcoin, if desired by the US authorities, can be reduced to zero.

The second most secure Ethereum initially worked according to the same unfair scheme as Bitcoin, but the transition to PoS made it possible to strengthen centralization with the help of big money and income will be received mainly by those who were at the origins of the creation of the Ethereum crypto-pyramid or who can freeze large sums of money in Ether to obtain an analogue of usurious interest.

2. Providing blockchain services to scammers.

No one has ever stolen as much money as the thieves stole irrevocably by deceiving laymen, hacking blockchains, and smart contracts. If the theft of money from bank accounts or payment cards can be quickly monitored and efforts can be made to return the money, then fraudsters most often have no problems at all with the theft of cryptocurrencies. The vast majority of the population appreciated the danger of blockchain and cryptocurrencies and gave cryptocurrencies a bad name.

3. Transferring cryptocurrencies despite government restrictions.

Transferring cryptocurrencies works, but leaves so many traces on the blockchain that it can be assumed that big scammers prefer cash, which leaves no trace. Petty swindlers are able to steal with impunity. The question arises: why are such preferences given to fraudsters or lawbreakers? After all, the vast majority of the planet's population are law-abiding citizens, and not thieves, smugglers, revolutionaries or terrorists.

What else is bad about current blockchains?

1. Blockchains are orders of magnitude more expensive than conventional centralized databases. Moreover, it is hundreds and thousands of times more expensive. Instead of one server, the blockchain must be served by thousands of servers duplicating the same information. Resources are wasted.

2. Lending using blockchains is a way to rob clinical idiots who provide collateral no less than the loan amount and also pay interest on top.

3. Slow and expensive blockchains such as Bitcoin or Ethereum are easily allowed on US exchanges and receive attention in the media, because these blockchains will never compete with fiat and payment services such as Visa, MasterCard and the like.

4. Most cryptocurrencies are created for pump/dump purposes in order to lure a crowd of laymen and take away their money. Hellish commissions of crypto exchanges accelerate the process of losses. The main income is received by those who invest in crypto pyramids at the very beginning, before selling tokens to a crowd of laymen.

5. Leaking information about crypto exchanges about clients' orders allows pumpers/dumpers to play against the crowd of crypto exchange clients.

If we exclude services and programs related to speculation in cryptocurrencies or fiat-crypto-fiat transfers, then over the past six years not a single application or service has appeared that I or my friends would need and that could be paid only with cryptocurrency . That is, the vast majority of ordinary people do not need crypto, smart contracts, DeFi and other bells and whistles of the crypto industry at all.

From the above we can conclude: the first phase of the cryptocurrency revolution has ended. Cryptocurrencies have caught on in the exchange betting industry, successfully serving crime, technically weak and expensive projects are even allowed for speculation on regulated exchanges.

The current Bitcoin pump, organized in anticipation of the resolution of the spot ETF, is just price manipulation in order to collect money from laymen who are told about a million-dollar Bitcoin. No more. As soon as the next pump/dump ends, the price of Bitcoin portrays a sloth that no one cares about. You can make money from pumps/dumps, but to believe that Bitcoin or slow Ethereum are projects that are necessary and in demand by society is very stupid.

What's next?

Naturally, the disadvantages of screwed-up projects described above are obvious and understandable to many blockchain developers. The only thing left to do is to eliminate all the shortcomings described above and propose projects that can compete with the fiat currencies of the Central Bank-6 cartel and CBDC.

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Night pump. What they spent on buying, they tried to take back by selling. Weak players pump like that in a thin market.

For now, I think that the night pumps on the weekend, the pump of this night, are a sign that they want to cause confusion among the crowd of laymen with the most minimal investments and are trying to knock out the price by actively sampling the stock market book. This suggests that the organizers of the pump do not need to purchase Bitcoin itself. They want rapid price growth, which makes the price worse for investors. This means that the pump organizers are not investors and their task is to quickly accelerate the price and then quickly take the profit by selling off the purchased Bitcoin.

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Reason for night pump/dump: "According to the latest information, BlackRock has filed an updated version of the Bitcoin Spot ETF S-1 filing with the SEC. Bloomberg analysts reported that negotiations between the SEC and BlackRock and other bidders for the Bitcoin Spot ETF are ongoing".

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Growth 41400-42500 on relatively small volumes. The crowd is buying Bitcoin, the fomo among crypto enthusiasts is caused by a series of pumps and the news background.

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The next pump allowed the price to rise to $44,000. Pump turnover is around 6000 BTC. I think less than half of what was bought was sold during profit taking. The number of transactions is large. I think the shorts were taken out once again. A rise to $44,100 confirms the presence of extreme greed and willingness to buy out the market at highs. So far there are no obvious obstacles to attempts to drive the price as high as possible before the approval of spot ETFs around January 7-10.

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Downward pullbacks are bought with pleasure and do not yet allow the price to sink beyond $1,100.

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Tested 43600 and saw that there were no large volumes to buy and the level would not hold. Next, we dumped using a small 3W model with a target around 42800. The profit from the dumps was taken immediately.

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A decline to the area of 42200 cannot be ruled out, but so far they are buying back quite actively.

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About a month until January 10th. When approaching the resistance level of 48200, the bulls who organized the pumps may want to take profits. Just in case. Technical targets are up to the level of 48200. Therefore, a rollback can occur at any time. Late bulls will use the pullback to buy. So around the New Year there may be unpredictable unrest in the thin market.

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Traders are actively buying call options on Bitcoin with a strike price of $50,000 and expiration on January 26, 2024.

In addition, in the last 36 hours, the highest trading volume among call options came from contracts with a strike price of $50,000 and expiration on January 26, 2024, Bloomberg reports, citing data from Deribit, the largest crypto options exchange. In second and third place on the list of call options with the highest trading volume were contracts with strikes of $45,000 and $75,000, respectively (the expiration date is also January 26, 2024).
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Option leverage can force market makers to hedge Bitcoin price increases with additional purchases. If there are large expirations on January 26, long hedging positions could be liquidated by Bitcoin sales, causing the price of Bitcoin to fall.

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Long squeeze.

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The manipulators spent about 4,000 BTC on the dump and spent about 4,000 BTC on the rollback. They came in and came out beautifully.

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Google will allow US-based crypto trusts to advertise on its platform. However, advertisers wishing to promote crypto trusts must be certified by Google.
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The ETF pump will be actively advertised. :)

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Cryptocurrency markets are seeing a massive surge in liquidations as Bitcoin (BTC) corrects to a key psychological level. The latest data from cryptocurrency data aggregator Coinglass shows that 119,302 traders were liquidated in the last 24 hours, worth $409.80 million.
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Did you think a gang of manipulators would make an easy profit? Now the gang has the profit to make more impressive pumps/dumps. :)

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The previous resistance level 38400 may become a buy zone. So I’m waiting for the designation of a new level of support by volumes of active purchases with the order book moving upward.

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There are purchases, there are pullbacks, activity is good, but a new level of support has not yet been identified. Once it is marked, there could be good buying opportunities on many altcoins if they do not end up breaking the support level of the last four weeks. So I wish everyone good hunting and patience. :)

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This week, 4 central banks meet and on Friday there will be the final annual expiration of SPX options with a call payment of more than $60 billion. After such large expirations, indices often roll back down. So the markets can shake and Bitcoin dumps/pumps at this time - easy and pleasant money for a gang of whales.

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We worked out a minor downward consolidation. Perhaps purchases are already underway in the expectation that the price will not fall below 40200.

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Yesterday's dump/pump. They lost 1000 BTC, but immediately bought back 5000 BTC and returned the price back.

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Results of the week.

Let's consider the turnover of whales that generated pumps/dumps, and the demand for Bitcoin from a crowd of bulls.

Let me remind you that during the major pumps/dumps of 2021, for whales, the lucky manipulation was the manipulation of the price shift by $1 by throwing 1 BTC into the exchange order book. If the shift was cheaper, then the profit of the manipulators was greater.

In the chart, the transaction volumes at the ASK and BID prices are combined into the total BTC amount.

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December 11th.

We dumped purely technically and collected stop losses for the bulls. It can be seen that in the end they bought back half of the dump amount. This means that approximately half of the turnover is a loss for the bulls.

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Testing the bottom with the usual pro-trading from December 11 to 12.

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Working out a small downward consolidation.

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Dump on the news and quickly pay back.

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A second consolidation is forming within the local range.

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Example of the benefits of nightly mini pumps/dumps. It takes less than 2 BTC to move the price by $1.

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A small pump in a thin market when approaching support at 41400.

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Perhaps the target of the dump is the 39500 zone. I think the main target of the dump is not Bitcoin itself, but the stops of altcoins, which are pulled up to the local support level of a particular altcoin.

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Collect stops, buy back altcoins and return to the pump following the growth of Bitcoin.

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They buy in small volumes.

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Looking for support.

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Perhaps this is the final consolidation of the current range.

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Major firms like BlackRock and Nasdaq meet with the SEC to discuss a new Bitcoin ETF, aiming to boost Bitcoin investment and market safety.

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We are preparing for the assault on 44700. Stops of short sellers should reduce the cost of the pump.

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The volumes are small. It would be comfortable to pump at night. Level 43500 can be designated as a local support level.

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Thin market...

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When approaching 44700, we tested the possibility of a sell-off.

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Resistance levels 44400, 44700 are indicated by dumpers. Pumpers buy out when approaching 43220. A pump above 44700 will trigger stops, since dumpers will not risk entering without stops while waiting for ETF permission. A successful dump below 43220 is unlikely to have much of a target, since those willing to buy can unexpectedly be found at any level. Without news over the weekend, and even in a thin market, they may try to test the indicated levels.

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They quickly dumped on the thin market at night using a consolidation model. :)

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Santa Claus gave a profit from a small consolidation. :)

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Tomorrow is the expiration of large volumes of call options. A downward pullback is possible due to crowd fears or the liquidation of long hedge positions by call option sellers. If there are no serious pullbacks by the end of December 29, I will regard this as a strong bullish signal.

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The dumpers tried to dump at night, but received counter purchases at the level of 41300, which the dumpers may now hold.

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The price quietly rises to the level of 44400, where there will be a first test of volumes on the sale of dumpers who bet that the ETF will not be approved or approved later than January 10th.

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We collected stops and broke through resistance levels. The volumes of purchases are quite large. It doesn’t look like a short-term pump in the style of “taking out the stops of short sellers and immediately closing long positions.” It is more likely that they are buying in anticipation of future explosive growth when news of the ETF's approval is published.

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Changed the text rendering:

+290 - movement size, multiple of 10.

3 B$ - when passing through the price of 1$ there was a turnover of 3 BTC. The lower the turnover, the more profitable it is to pump/dump the price for whales and the stronger the rollback will be when whales take profits.

We are looking at 44300, what will they do around this price. When approaching 44300, a large volume of transactions was thrown out.

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Nicely dumped. The bulls' feet were taken out on futures. The main profit taking is around 40800.

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Possible dump triggers: theblock.co/post/270125/sec-will-reject-all-bitcoin-spot-etfs-in-january-says-matrixport-analyst

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The consolidation support level was 40540, but they couldn’t get it out of the dump. counter purchases at 40800 stopped the dump. Perhaps 40800 will be a support level, below which the bulls will try not to let the price go. On many altcoins, the support levels have not yet been knocked out, and in place of the dumpers, I would try another dump at night in order to knock out 40540 and 40200 on Bitcoin in a thin market, so that the stops of these levels and the stops of the not yet knocked out support levels on altcoins would work. If the SEC approves the ETF, all the decline will be reversed very quickly. The current hunt for longlists' stops is carried out under the guise of specially planted news. As if, without this news, no one knew that the SEC might not approve applications.

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May be, 42000 local support.

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Level 40540 has not been touched yet. Either the dumpers have already done what they wanted, or in the area of 40540 there are dumpers waiting for them with such volumes that there is no point in dumping. We are waiting for the SEC's decision or lack thereof. If they go to 40540, the passage could be interesting. Today there was news about the health of ETFs.

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Jacquelyn Melinek, senior cryptocurrency journalist at Techcrunch, one of the popular platforms in the field of technology, announced in her statement that “according to information obtained from sources extremely close to the subject, the SEC will approve the Bitcoin Spot ETF applications of many companies.”

Melinek said that the new development regarding approvals will probably come tomorrow.

Bloomberg's cryptocurrency expert James Seyffart also gave the message that “we are getting closer” regarding Bitcoin Spot ETFs in his post about 1 hour ago. Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have long thought that Bitcoin Spot ETFs will be approved.

en.bitcoinsistemi.com/breaking-cryptocurrency-journalist-jacquelyn-melinek-speaks-according-to-sources-very-close-to-the-subject-sec-will-approve-bitcoin-spot-etfs-big-day-tomorrow/

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A very profitable dump, from the point of view of removing the order book with a small amount, in a thin market.

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A small pump due to news about commissions had a turnover of 8400 BTC, approximately $350 million. The profit was recorded immediately, with a turnover of 1600 BTC.

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If there was no news, then technically, consolidation was making its way up. And when traders bought based on technical analysis, the whales dumped, collecting stops below 46240, making the dump cheaper. There were no large counter buy orders on the exchange, which is why the dump was so cheap and we had to play it back so quickly.

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SEC says Bitcoin ETFs have NOT been approved
SEC says its Twitter account was hacked
Info comes via Bloomberg

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A small model 3W down has been worked out. Profit is recorded, purchasing activity is visible due to the closure of a short position.

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The turnover of the night pump due to the hack of 3350 BTC at takeoff is a pump of small fraters. Whales would turn around 10,000 BTC for such a thing and raise the price by 3-5K so that the pump would be clearly visible on the charts. The price had to be driven according to the technique, at least to 49100 with a clear breakdown of 48200 (sign level). The crowd of buyers must have been in a rush of excitement for takeoff. Then you could calmly dump against the crowd, under the pretext of “sell based on facts.” Small fraters jumped up for a measly $1400 and ruined a beautiful plan.

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As an option.

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But they can immediately move on to selling based on facts. The crowd is so unique. :)

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Perhaps my idea is wrong. This is too logical and too obvious; you can’t take money away from the crowd. There must be another, unexpected scenario for how to take away the crowd’s money. As an option, dump immediately and dump heavily... Perhaps a hard dump on approval, and then a reversal and departure above 48K, will be the most unexpected scenario.

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Confusion. It seems like you need to pump, but it’s scary. Or maybe it's time to dump? It's also scary. let someone start first. :)

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46670? :)

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46670 - worked. :)
While the whales are refraining from playing.

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The consolidation target of 49200 has been met. Long positions successfully unloaded the crowd of new spot ETF clients.

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Turnover of all spot ETF clients at the level of a crypto exchange like Binance. Funds will have to work with advertising to drive a crowd of clients and pump the price of Bitcoin into the ATH area. I think whales will take an active part in this process.

Congratulations to everyone on the successful launch of the ETF! The chances of pumping into the ATH area have increased many times over. :)

Trade closed: target reached

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Practicing the "Head and Shoulders" pattern. Sales are proceeding with good counter volumes.

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Miners are selling off bitcoins, taking advantage of increased liquidity during ETF trading. Therefore, the price does not drop quickly on good volumes. Miners need to buy new equipment before the halving.

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May be. :)

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41500 next? Hm...

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In my opinion, sales are still ongoing without the participation of large whales. Bitcoin was sold by miners and Grayscale clients. Therefore, the crowd sells more than it buys. Large buyers are waiting for better prices or better news background.

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There are no rush purchases, but perhaps the level of 40200 will be protected.

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There are no rush purchases.

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The volumes are small. Small players play. They dump because of GBTC.

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To break the game down, you need to break 44700 up. If a small consolidation is broken upward now, it will accelerate the breakout of 44700. A breakout of the consolidation downwards and a decline to the 40000 area will give good prices for purchases and a reversal upwards with a target in the 60000 area.

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Scenario 1:

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Scenario 2:

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The bears did not give up until the last moment. Shorted, but the head and shoulders downward pattern is broken. Now scenario 2 is relevant.

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Growth at normal volumes. Whales don't pump. Short losses are triggered. Perhaps the consolidation goal will be achieved at the level of 45900.

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Small whales began to show signs of life. The pumps are still small, but they will do for a start.

Trade closed: target reached

Will roll back down, long again. :)

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When approaching 49,000, they try to sell in the hope that the price will come back, but the volumes are small.

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I will repeat and organize the current results.

Step 1:

Mission Complete. :)

Step 2.

Mission Complete. :)

Step 3.

Now:

Mission Complete. :)

Step 4.

Mission in progress.

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News: CPI.
Buy. Good price. :)

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There are different styles of trading. Many transactions with small goals, due to compound interest, are orders of magnitude more profitable than buy and hold. ;)

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The bears repulsed an attempt to take 53,000 on relatively small volumes. It’s too early to draw conclusions, but this is a bad sign for the bulls.

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Eleven days in the range is a bad sign. Investor purchases through ETFs do not push the price up. Perhaps crypto enthusiasts are selling crypto to stock investors at the maximum rate, but so that the price does not collapse. But if the desire to sell Bitcoin is strong, and ETF investors do not have much interest in large purchases, Bitcoin can roll back significantly. But perhaps there will be fluctuations in technology. Let's see.

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At night, whales worked in the thin market. We pumped like in the good old days.

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Step 4 -> step 5. Mission in prigress.

Trade closed: target reached

In the next month or two I will be busy with something interesting. It is unlikely that it will be possible to engage in the market in the previous style. So there will be no opportunity to write. I wish you all success and profit! :)

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The final ETF-halving-pump has happened. Level 59K passed without a fight, on small volumes. A further technical target for decline may be in the area of 44-48K.

Gelium

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