BTC possible EW counts
Here is a middle term view of BTC. I am following 2 counts. The first one would be the 1-2-1-2 count in pink, which would be a "little three big three" setup. I like it because:
1) Both 2nd waves would display sharp corrections.
2) The slope of the 2nd second wave would be less than first wave 2.
3) The 2nd second wave lasts longer than the first wave 2, which would be indicative of an extended 3rd wave. It is common to have a 2nd second wave that is twice as long as the first second wave, or even a bit longer. At this stage, I wouldn't like it to be any longer though, it would have to have bottomed here for this scenario to remain probable.
4) If the 2nd second wave has indeed bottomed, I like the idea of a reversal around the middle line area of the Kennedy base channel.
Also notice the potential textbook change of polarity if we have indeed bottomed here.
A break above 31k would be a good signal. To consider this count as a very high probability setup, I would like to see a breakout candle at 31k with a long bullish real body, big volume and a daily RSI reaching extreme values.
About the alternate (green labels):
At this stage, I am giving the 1-2-1-2 scenario a slight preference, but I am also prepared for a more bearish case, because the bears still have solid arguments.
Perhaps the whole wave up from the November 2022 low was a 5-waves move and the decline from the 31k high a leading diagonal. Under this count, expect a corrective rally to 28-29k ish and then a wave down which could carry to 20k. If BTC crashes to 20k, I would then examine other alternates and be careful before I turn bullish again, because we would have broken important support at 24-25k. A break above 31k eliminates this scenario.
There are other, lower probability alternates which I didn't mention here, but they would be variations of these counts and the philosophy remains the same.
The bottom line is that 31k is an extremely important key level.
1) Both 2nd waves would display sharp corrections.
2) The slope of the 2nd second wave would be less than first wave 2.
3) The 2nd second wave lasts longer than the first wave 2, which would be indicative of an extended 3rd wave. It is common to have a 2nd second wave that is twice as long as the first second wave, or even a bit longer. At this stage, I wouldn't like it to be any longer though, it would have to have bottomed here for this scenario to remain probable.
4) If the 2nd second wave has indeed bottomed, I like the idea of a reversal around the middle line area of the Kennedy base channel.
Also notice the potential textbook change of polarity if we have indeed bottomed here.
A break above 31k would be a good signal. To consider this count as a very high probability setup, I would like to see a breakout candle at 31k with a long bullish real body, big volume and a daily RSI reaching extreme values.
About the alternate (green labels):
At this stage, I am giving the 1-2-1-2 scenario a slight preference, but I am also prepared for a more bearish case, because the bears still have solid arguments.
Perhaps the whole wave up from the November 2022 low was a 5-waves move and the decline from the 31k high a leading diagonal. Under this count, expect a corrective rally to 28-29k ish and then a wave down which could carry to 20k. If BTC crashes to 20k, I would then examine other alternates and be careful before I turn bullish again, because we would have broken important support at 24-25k. A break above 31k eliminates this scenario.
There are other, lower probability alternates which I didn't mention here, but they would be variations of these counts and the philosophy remains the same.
The bottom line is that 31k is an extremely important key level.
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