BTCUSDT PRICE SQUEEZE + QQQ CORRELATION
Updated
Important things to note:
This is just a small update with small adjustments to my targets.
If you would like me to make a video version of these updates, let me know in the comments.
A quick video overview of BTC and the markets would be easier for me to put out more often via video.
We are currently going on our 9th red week and I have to be honest, I just do not see another down week happening.
Price has been staying in area of interest and squeezing.
QQQ correlation has been falling daily since May 12th.
I have adjusted the price targets by a small amount.
The Volume we had on the drop across all markets is significant.
I have also adjusted the symmetrical triangle to account for the price movements.
It would make sense that the price would squeeze higher and test the trendline.
I expect the trendline test to get rejected due to the overall bear market.
Tightening starts June 1st which would spike the price is the market shutters.
Hey everyone! I just wanted to give you a quick update since I have adjusted a few things and have looked at the overall market during the weekend. Also, it would be easier on me if I could just make a video update every few days going over the tradfi market, derivatives, crypto and anything else I see going on. If this is something you would rather see versus reading me ramble on, please let me know in the comments. I would still put out charts, but it would save me some writing time. Anyways, so I have been thinking about the fact that we are going on our 9th red week and to be honest, it cannot sustain the same momentum forever. I think this would be a good time for the price to squeeze upwards towards 33k while simultaneously testing the trendline. I also expect that the trendline test would be rejected. The lows will need to be tested eventually and that would also fall in line with the fed tightening. I do not expect the market to puke the very day that the tightening begins, but that week or the following week seems likely if the credit market starts to shake. I have also put the downside risk on the chart as well so you know where I expect price to go if things go wrong. I should also note that you can clearly see the correlation to QQQ start to fall little by little. The thing is, BTC is cheap compared to QQQ if you look at the average distribution. So I expect that at these levels, people are going to keep stacking. The volume across all exchanges should also be of note because it was absolutely massive. It is clear the market panicked hard during the last drop, and that makes people oversell. As a bull, that is exactly what you want to see because it creates a price floor that is difficult to break. That's it for today folks! Thanks again and let me know what you think about quick video updates! It will just be me going over things I am looking at currently. Till next time!
So tell me what you think?
Not financial advice. Do your own research.
This is just a small update with small adjustments to my targets.
If you would like me to make a video version of these updates, let me know in the comments.
A quick video overview of BTC and the markets would be easier for me to put out more often via video.
We are currently going on our 9th red week and I have to be honest, I just do not see another down week happening.
Price has been staying in area of interest and squeezing.
QQQ correlation has been falling daily since May 12th.
I have adjusted the price targets by a small amount.
The Volume we had on the drop across all markets is significant.
I have also adjusted the symmetrical triangle to account for the price movements.
It would make sense that the price would squeeze higher and test the trendline.
I expect the trendline test to get rejected due to the overall bear market.
Tightening starts June 1st which would spike the price is the market shutters.
Hey everyone! I just wanted to give you a quick update since I have adjusted a few things and have looked at the overall market during the weekend. Also, it would be easier on me if I could just make a video update every few days going over the tradfi market, derivatives, crypto and anything else I see going on. If this is something you would rather see versus reading me ramble on, please let me know in the comments. I would still put out charts, but it would save me some writing time. Anyways, so I have been thinking about the fact that we are going on our 9th red week and to be honest, it cannot sustain the same momentum forever. I think this would be a good time for the price to squeeze upwards towards 33k while simultaneously testing the trendline. I also expect that the trendline test would be rejected. The lows will need to be tested eventually and that would also fall in line with the fed tightening. I do not expect the market to puke the very day that the tightening begins, but that week or the following week seems likely if the credit market starts to shake. I have also put the downside risk on the chart as well so you know where I expect price to go if things go wrong. I should also note that you can clearly see the correlation to QQQ start to fall little by little. The thing is, BTC is cheap compared to QQQ if you look at the average distribution. So I expect that at these levels, people are going to keep stacking. The volume across all exchanges should also be of note because it was absolutely massive. It is clear the market panicked hard during the last drop, and that makes people oversell. As a bull, that is exactly what you want to see because it creates a price floor that is difficult to break. That's it for today folks! Thanks again and let me know what you think about quick video updates! It will just be me going over things I am looking at currently. Till next time!
So tell me what you think?
Not financial advice. Do your own research.
Note
Traders are still playing the range. I am keeping an eye on the closing price today for a hint to direction for the rest of the week.Note
So I have said before that Summer will be Max pain for BTC:Yesterday the Atlanta Fed hinted that they may need to pause in sept.
Now the Fed swaps downgrade chance of half a point in sept.
So how did I and others see this timing coming? Because we are watching the same thing the Fed is watching, the housing market and the credit market. Both are not looking good and impact the economy in a major way.
Elon and the rest of the paypal mafia said very recently that we are already in a recession and I agree. It is only a matter of time before the Fed stops, and then resumes QE or YCC. Keep your eye on the prize everyone!
Note
Daily correlation to QQQ now 0.756 was 0.82 yesterday and 0.91 last week.Note
Well the good news is decoupling is ongoing. The bad news is I don't think this was the decoupling people were looking for. lol Honestly, equities are not done taking a major hit. So I think we will eventually get the type of decoupling we are looking for. On the chart you can see the PA just missed my downside risk box by a hair. However, the PA is also following the fractal I made recently. Very interesting.
Note
I know a lot of people are wondering what is going to happen. After 8 red weeks, we are now on the 9th. However, I still believe we are overdue for a push upwards. I am still amazed how well the price action is tracking that fractal. Obviously it isn't exact, but it is pretty darn close!Note
They are trying to run the stops on the shorts right now. They are cutting through them pretty easily. Like I said I still believe we are due for the push upwards. if the stops get ran hard it can blow past my 33k target to 38k, but lets take it slow right now.Note
I should also mention I do not believe this pump will be a sustained bullish run. This is simply a relief rally.Note
I know a lot of people here are would-be traders, trying to cut their teeth and make a few bucks. This chart is a good example of the asymmetry I look for when I trade. I am a bit more loosey goosey when I invest, (I take on more risk because it is spread out over time). However, when I trade, I trade extremely tight and I am very risk adverse. If you don't already know, asymmetry is your risk/reward ratio. You always want more potential upside, than potential downside. This is your edge. You need edge before you take a trade. Edge can be found by using derivatives data (what I used to use most heavily in Tradfi and now crypto) fundamental analysis, technical analysis, momentum, gaps, etc. There are a lot of ways to gain an edge in the market. Just remember, you need to know which way the river is flowing because you never want to swim against the current. This means in bull markets, you will find the edge easiest by jumping in assets that have been beat down in the short term, and in bear markets you will look for good pump fades. These are just as few of my thoughts today. I hope you find them useful.
Note
I believe there is still more juice left to squeeze. We will see. But remember, the chances that this is just a relief rally are like 95%. So ya, don't get dumped on.Note
I'm not sure if anyone ever reads what I write, but I just noticed a lot of the big names in crypto, econ, etc are talking about the decoupling now. This is something I have been talking about for weeks now. When I first mentioned it, people said all sorts of things: it will not happen for at least a year, years, decades, to infinity and beyond. It is important to keep an open mind and interpret the data yourself. I am sure now everyone would agree. Though I think it might recouple before it completely departs the risk asset category, it is worth keeping an eye on. The fact is, people are looking for yields and if everything else is negative yielding, or like gold, difficult to take custody of, BTC is your next best choice in this era of uncertainty. If you do not know how to track it, steal the indicator I use and set it to QQQ or SPX or whatever you want. Cheers.Note
I am still expecting a bigger move than what we have seen. I am also expecting harsh downside to follow it. The past upward move was too simply too small. The price should reach towards the 200MA in about a 20-30% move in a bear market and we have not seen it yet. However, like I said before, this move is sure to get faded quickly. I am not trading too much besides the occasional hedge. I am however scooping up as much BTC as I can. When I feel that the tide is turning, I will start looking at alts once again.Note
Waiting for Binance Bidder to create a floor, then dump on everyone 2k later, like they did 100 times now lol.Note
SPX gave us our bear market rally right on time. BTC still hasn't pushed up where it needs to go yet, but maybe that's a good thing since significant downside is what follows that move.Note
I should also mention that it looks like some of this sell pressure is coming from miners. Though it is not very strong at the moment, it means a the bottom is near since their margins are getting squeezed. I am fairly confident the summer and early fall will be max pain for BTC. CPI numbers were terrible today, what you want to see if PPI come down. This will tell you where CPI is going and also how much the FED will smash risk on assets.Note
Bond yields look like they are pricing in an extra 75bps on the 2YNote
EDIT: What you want to see is PPI come down. (not if*)Note
The good news is, the major run for liquidity is pretty much over for the most part. Everyone who was going to sell BTC probably has already because it should be clear by now, the recession is here. Anyone who was going to liquidate assets for cash has done so. I expect ALT holders to capitulate soon, because ETH just broke an important support and the rest of the alts are coming with it. I expect the downward pressure will likely be too much for people who's cost basis is higher than the price right now. Those people will wave the white flag soon and rotate into BTC with whatever they have left. This is how it always goes. BTC dominance will raise higher than it is now, and the bottom will be closer. The last people to capitulate with BTC will be the forced sellers when the market cracks. Then you will have your bottom. Like I said before, it is coming soon. I give it until OCT at the latest. Probably this summer though.
Note
Now is the time that VCs get liquidated.Note
Welp my bids are layered between 24 and 20 right now so I didn't fill anything yet. It still makes more sense to me to push upward before swinging low for the next leg down. I figure the market has already priced in the increased rate hikes by the look of the bond yields. Time to be patient.Note
But maybe I am wrong and the next leg down is now. However, that seems a bit premature tbh.Note
Well that was unfortunate. I expected BTC to stay in range for at least a month. However, we can all thank Celsius for the recent price action. If you are unaware, basically a LUNA situation... again. They have just sent 3.5k BTC to FTX to sell. Almost 100M worth. The alts are capitulating. This is part of the process. However, now I am looking at my target range of 20-24k a lot earlier than I expected. I also have to factor in that we have not really had a relief rally and I am certain we will get one. I hope though, that we don't get some terrible drop and then a huge rally to follow (similar to 2018). Anyways, I am going to be putting out a chart this week with a companion video accompanying it. Keep an eye on my signature block for updated links. Hope you enjoy it!Note
Sooooooooo ST bond just gapped up + MBS no bid on friday, stocks dump, crypto dump, I would say things are getting pretty stressed out there. I am not sure how much runway the Fed has before the market completely nukes, but it's not looking great.Note
Personally, I have layered bids from 24 - 20k as I have said before. But the worst part about this when looking at price action and metrics is the lack of support until 20k. I will be talking more about this later this week. I have averaged out my metrics which have a high degree of confluence despite the crazy times.Note
EU breaking, Japan is falling apart. Looks like it only took a 11 hours for what I saw coming to play out. Wild.Note
OMG the bond yield just jumped again. 25BPS. Yikes. Not good people. Not good.Note
About the above update if you didn't understand, the market is pricing in the possibility of a 100bps hike this week. The credit market is already hanging on by a thread. Hold on tight. Do not get liquidated.Note
Most likely fed rate hikes at the moment:Jun - 75
July - 75
Sep - 50
Nov - 25
Dec - 25
Bringing the grand total to around 3.25 - 3.5 top
This is inline with the current US02Y bond yield.
Note
Daily RSI is alllllllllllmost there.Note
Not looking good peeps.Note
I would prepare for danger mode if I were you, expect the worst. The worst being a similar decrease from ATH. Meaning prepare for 12k. I know that sounds crazy, but I can see BTC hitting 15k no prob tbh if there are a chain of institutional insolvencies. That being said, I hate FUD directed at companies. You see it all the time in Tradfi, but now that institutions are in crypto, you see it a lot more. Twitter doesn't help either. Keep a calm mind and strike when the time is appealing to you. Don't stress, in 2 and 1/2 years, you will be laughing about this if you survive. Make no mistake, every bear market is all out war. You are fighting for your future. I mean that very seriously. I had to scratch and claw my way to where I am today. Huge entities will become insolvent, you see high profile arrests, and there will be utter chaos. I will never forget 2008, but these are the times that I feel the most alive. The risk, the reward, generational bottoms, futures are made here, lessons are learned, and most don't make it. These are the times where you realize large institutions are no better than you, they are normal, fallible humans. The name of the game is survival, only the strong will survive. I will be putting out a chart soon with a companion video. I know I sound like a broken record, but I am very busy, so I make the time when I can.
Note
So make no mistake, we are in the danger zone (queue Kenny Loggins). But I have noticed a trend in both tradfi and crypto. Last week had almost record short selling, with no covering. Meaning, if the markets are vulnerable for a squeeze. They still have not covered and we have a long weekend. Next week should be interesting. But remember, danger zone mentality until we are above 30k AT LEAST. I still believe the worst is yet to come.Note
Looks like shorts are covering now in Tradfi, right on queue. DXY is down a bit, in fact it looks like a double top to me. BTC is correlated .94 to QQQ again on the 1D.Note
WallStreetBets is currently squeezing Celsius (CEL). Fighting back against the CEL attack. Gotta love those degens! If you dont know a lot of big businesses short their competition in a recession in order to put them out of business so they can buy them cheap.
Banks are likely the culprit.
Note
"If you're participating in the potential squeeze, buy spot on ftx or okx etc, withdraw to self-custody, limit order on 1Inch for $10-$100.This is risky. GME was risky. But this is also based on data just like GME was."
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