Bitcoin breaks through $120,000: long opportunities under the resonance of fundamentals and technical aspects
I. Fundamentals: Multiple positive factors drive the bull market
Institutional funds continue to pour in
The net inflow of US spot Bitcoin ETFs reached US$2.7 billion in a single week (a single-week record in 2025), and BlackRock IBIT's management scale is close to US$100 billion410.
Listed companies (such as MicroStrategy) continue to increase their holdings, with a total holding of more than 850,000 BTC, worth nearly US$100 billion6.
Policy easing expectations strengthen
The US "Cryptocurrency Week" deliberates on three key bills (the "GENIUS Act" and the "Clarity Act", etc.). If passed, it will clarify the regulatory framework and eliminate market uncertainty210.
The Trump administration promotes crypto-friendly policies, including the "National Strategic Cryptocurrency Reserve" plan, to boost market confidence69.
Macroeconomic environment support
Expectations of Fed rate cuts are rising, funds are flowing into risky assets at an accelerated pace, and Bitcoin's safe-haven properties as "digital gold" are strengthened13.
2. Technical aspects: Breaking through key resistance, upward space opens
Key breakthrough confirmed
Bitcoin breaks through the $120,000 mark, completely gets rid of the $90,000-110,000 oscillation range, and forms a daily level "ascending triangle" breaking through 210.
RSI (daily) is in the healthy range of 60-70, no overbought signal appears, MACD golden cross continues, showing strong upward momentum 69.
Support and target
Short-term support: $118,000 (previous high conversion support), if it falls below, look at $112,000 (20-day moving average).
Upward target:
Short-term: $135,000-140,000 (Fibonacci extension level + institutional bullish consensus) 910.
Medium- to long-term: $200,000 (forecast by Standard Chartered Bank, Bitwise and other institutions) 48.
Derivatives signal
Short positions intensify the rise: $740 million of short orders were liquidated within 24 hours, forming a "short squeeze" positive feedback 26.
The options market is piled with bullish bets, and the open interest of $150,000 call options expiring in December has surged by 10.
Long-term ideas, entry strategies
Positions can be opened in batches at the current price (around $120,000), with a stop loss set at $115,000 (key psychological support).
If it stabilizes in the range of $118,000-115,000, you can increase your position.
Target and risk control
First target: $135,000 (technical resistance + institutional consensus).
Second target: $150,000 (trend continuation + policy catalysis).
Be wary of short-term fluctuations: If it falls below $115,000, the trend needs to be re-evaluated.
Configuration suggestions
Main position is Bitcoin, and auxiliary position is Ethereum (ETH breaks through $3,000, with great potential for catch-up) 10.
Avoid high leverage, and pay attention to the volatility that may be caused by the implementation of US regulatory details in August 18.
Conclusion: Bitcoin is driven by policy, capital, and technology, and the bull market pattern is clear. There may be short-term fluctuations, but the trend has not changed, and buying on dips remains the main strategy.
I. Fundamentals: Multiple positive factors drive the bull market
Institutional funds continue to pour in
The net inflow of US spot Bitcoin ETFs reached US$2.7 billion in a single week (a single-week record in 2025), and BlackRock IBIT's management scale is close to US$100 billion410.
Listed companies (such as MicroStrategy) continue to increase their holdings, with a total holding of more than 850,000 BTC, worth nearly US$100 billion6.
Policy easing expectations strengthen
The US "Cryptocurrency Week" deliberates on three key bills (the "GENIUS Act" and the "Clarity Act", etc.). If passed, it will clarify the regulatory framework and eliminate market uncertainty210.
The Trump administration promotes crypto-friendly policies, including the "National Strategic Cryptocurrency Reserve" plan, to boost market confidence69.
Macroeconomic environment support
Expectations of Fed rate cuts are rising, funds are flowing into risky assets at an accelerated pace, and Bitcoin's safe-haven properties as "digital gold" are strengthened13.
2. Technical aspects: Breaking through key resistance, upward space opens
Key breakthrough confirmed
Bitcoin breaks through the $120,000 mark, completely gets rid of the $90,000-110,000 oscillation range, and forms a daily level "ascending triangle" breaking through 210.
RSI (daily) is in the healthy range of 60-70, no overbought signal appears, MACD golden cross continues, showing strong upward momentum 69.
Support and target
Short-term support: $118,000 (previous high conversion support), if it falls below, look at $112,000 (20-day moving average).
Upward target:
Short-term: $135,000-140,000 (Fibonacci extension level + institutional bullish consensus) 910.
Medium- to long-term: $200,000 (forecast by Standard Chartered Bank, Bitwise and other institutions) 48.
Derivatives signal
Short positions intensify the rise: $740 million of short orders were liquidated within 24 hours, forming a "short squeeze" positive feedback 26.
The options market is piled with bullish bets, and the open interest of $150,000 call options expiring in December has surged by 10.
Long-term ideas, entry strategies
Positions can be opened in batches at the current price (around $120,000), with a stop loss set at $115,000 (key psychological support).
If it stabilizes in the range of $118,000-115,000, you can increase your position.
Target and risk control
First target: $135,000 (technical resistance + institutional consensus).
Second target: $150,000 (trend continuation + policy catalysis).
Be wary of short-term fluctuations: If it falls below $115,000, the trend needs to be re-evaluated.
Configuration suggestions
Main position is Bitcoin, and auxiliary position is Ethereum (ETH breaks through $3,000, with great potential for catch-up) 10.
Avoid high leverage, and pay attention to the volatility that may be caused by the implementation of US regulatory details in August 18.
Conclusion: Bitcoin is driven by policy, capital, and technology, and the bull market pattern is clear. There may be short-term fluctuations, but the trend has not changed, and buying on dips remains the main strategy.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Free Signals：t.me/+CXftl_-QHEo2Yzc0
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.