Volatility Period: January 9-11
Updated
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
The key is whether it can quickly rise above 97461.86 and maintain the price.
If not, it needs to fall, and it needs to check whether it is supported near the important support and resistance area of 93576.0-94742.35.
If it falls below the BW(0) indicator point of 92792.05, the point to watch is whether the HA-Low indicator is generated.
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This volatility period is expected to be around January 10th (January 9th-11th).
In order to continue the short-term uptrend, the price needs to rise above 97461.86 and maintain it.
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First of all, the fund flow does not seem to be that bad.
This is because USDT stopped its gap downtrend and is moving sideways, and USDC seems to be maintaining its gap uptrend.
(NAS100USD 1D chart)
However, since it fell due to other issues affecting the coin market, unless a bigger issue occurs, the coin market is expected to defend its price.
(XAUUSD 1D chart)
(IBIT 1D chart)
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been in an upward trend since 2015 following a pattern.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year uptrend and faces a 1-year downtrend.
Accordingly, the uptrend is expected to continue until 2025.
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(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, you can see that the upward trend is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we expect that we will not see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
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The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
In other words, it is the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, it is expected that this Fibonacci ratio will be used until 2026.
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No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
How to view and respond to this is up to you.
When the ATH is updated, there are no support and resistance points, so the Fibonacci ratio can be used appropriately.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous when used as support and resistance.
This is because the user must directly select the important selection points required to create Fibonacci.
Therefore, since it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection points, it can be useful for chart analysis, but it can be seen as ambiguous when used for trading strategies.
1st : 44234.54
2nd : 61383.23
3rd : 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (Overshooting)
4th : 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (Overshooting)
5th : 178910.15
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Trade active
#BTCUSDT
The volatility period begins.
The key is whether it can find support near the important support and resistance area (93576.0-94742.35) and rise above 97461.86.
If it falls below the BW(0) indicator (92792.05), we should check whether there is support near 87.8K-89K.
What we should be interested in is whether the HA-Low indicator can be newly created.
Since the StochRSI indicator has started to decline, we should also look at whether it quickly falls below the 50 point.
Note
#BTCUSDT
This volatility period is until January 11th, so be careful when trading during this volatility period.
(If possible, it is recommended not to make new transactions during the volatility period.)
In order to switch to a short-term uptrend, the price must rise above 97461.86 and maintain it.
It fell below BW(0), but it is showing an upward trend again.
It takes at least 1-3 days to confirm support and resistance, which is tedious and difficult.
Therefore, it is important to know how to deal with this volatility.
This countermeasure ultimately corresponds to the trading strategy.
Therefore, before starting a trade, you should think about this situation and start trading.
- Will you enter in a split trade or enter all at once?
- How much will you invest?
- How will you take profit and cut losses?
You should think about the above in advance and proceed with trading.
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Basically, when the price is below the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator, there is a high possibility of a decline.
Therefore, when entering a buy (LONG), it is recommended to lower the investment ratio and trade short.
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Since the important support and resistance area is 93576.0-94742.35, you should check for support around this area.
If it does not receive support, it will eventually fall below BW(0).
Note
HA-High indicator and HA-Low indicator are indicators created for trading on Heikin-Ashi charts.
The HA-High indicator is created by combining the arrangement of Heikin-Ashi candles and when RSI < 70 falls below.
Therefore, the creation of the HA-High indicator means that it has fallen from the high point.
Therefore, when the HA-High indicator is first created, it mostly shows a downward trend.
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BW(100) indicator and BW(0) indicator appear according to the movement of the BW auxiliary indicator.
The BW auxiliary indicator is an indicator that comprehensively evaluates the MACD, StochRSI, OBV, and superTrend indicators.
When the BW auxiliary indicator touches the highest point (+50) and then falls, the BW(100) indicator is created.
Therefore, the meaning of the BW(100) indicator being created is the same as the meaning of the HA-High indicator being created.
Therefore, when the BW(100) indicator is first created, it mostly shows a downward trend.
In this way, when the BW(100) indicator is created and falls and then touches the BW(100) indicator again, it mostly shows an upward trend.
In cases where it fails to rise and falls, there is a possibility that the StochRSI indicator will show a downward trend in the overbought zone, so it is recommended to check the movement of the StochRSI indicator together.
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The meaning of the BW(0) indicator being created is when the BW auxiliary indicator touches the lowest point (-50) and rises.
Therefore, when the BW(0) indicator is created, it means that it rose in the low zone.
Therefore, when the BW(0) indicator is first created, it mostly shows an upward trend.
If it goes up like this and then falls and touches the BW(0) indicator again, it will mostly show a downward trend.
It may not show the same trend as it does now.
It is a time when caution is required when trading because it is currently in a period of volatility.
Check the movement of the indicators when the BW(0) indicator is touched again and an additional decline occurs.
The BW(0) indicator and the HA-Low indicator indicate the low point range.
Therefore, the BW(0) indicator and the HA-Low indicator must be created to form a low point boundary range and start the movement to create a bottom range.
Since there is a possibility that it will not be able to make a bottom section and will show a stepwise downtrend, you should think about a response plan when it falls below the lower point of the HA-Low indicator box and shows resistance.
Therefore, if you understand the purpose of the indicator, it will be easier to make a response plan accordingly.
BW(0) and BW(100) form a reciprocal relationship.
Therefore, a trend is formed only when it deviates from the BW(0) ~ BW(100) section.
The same goes for HA-Low and HA-High.
There is a difference between BW(0), BW(100) and HA-Low, HA-High.
BW(0), BW(100) are formed based on the lowest and highest points of the indicators, while HA-Low, HA-High indicators are used for trading using Heikin-Ashi candles.
Therefore, when you meet HA-Low, HA-High indicators, you need to create a trading strategy and when you meet BW(0), BW(100), you need to create a response plan.
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