BTC/USDT Wyckoff Accumulation - 80% Accurate?
Updated
BTCUSDTMy Cleanest that I can come up with.
What I did consider why somehow it is inaccurate.
1. Anticipation - Price where moved a bit and some are delayed in dip/pump. 1 reason: because of the market manipulation which will make this market a bit inaccurate down to 80% probability.
2. Fundamentals - Crypto fundamental analysis involves taking a deep dive into the available information about a financial asset. For instance, you might look at its use cases, the number of people using it, or the team behind the project. Your goal is to reach a conclusion on whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued.
3. Significant Dates - For example. the 12th of July 12AM and July 17 2021. These are significant dates because of the events that may come.
Example for that is GBTC wallet release for July 17th of 2021.
4. Technicalities - I am just allowing myself to have fun with the market it allows us to make educated guesses about whether a digital asset's price will increase or decrease in the future.
5. Market Psychology - my observance and collection of wallets to produce prevailing behaviors and aggregate sentiment of market actors at any point in time. The term is often used by the financial media and analysts to explain market movement that may not be explained by other metrics, such as fundamentals.
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REF: investopedia.com/terms/l/low_volume_pullback.asp
Phase A
The selling force decreases, and the downtrend starts to slow down. This phase is usually marked by an increase in trading volume . The Preliminary Support (PS) indicates that some buyers are showing up, but still not enough to stop the downward move.
The Selling Climax ( SC ) is formed by an intense selling activity as investors capitulate. This is often a point of high volatility , where panic selling creates big candlesticks and wicks. The strong drop quickly reverts into a bounce or Automatic Rally (AR), as the excess supply is absorbed by the buyers. In general, the trading range ( TR ) of an Accumulation Schematic is defined by the space between the SC low and the AR high.
As the name suggests, the Secondary Test (ST) happens when the market drops near the SC region, testing whether the downtrend is really over or not. At this point, the trading volume and market volatility tend to be lower. While the ST often forms a higher low in relation to the SC , that may not always be the case.
Phase B
Based on Wyckoff’s Law of Cause and Effect, Phase B may be seen as the Cause that leads to an Effect.
Essentially, Phase B is the consolidation stage, in which the Composite Man accumulates the highest number of assets. During this stage, the market tends to test both resistance and support levels of the trading range.
There may be numerous Secondary Tests (ST) during Phase B. In some cases, they may produce higher highs (bull traps) and lower lows (bear traps) in relation to the SC and AR of Phase A.
Phase C
A typical Accumulation Phase C contains what is called a Spring . It often acts as the last bear trap before the market starts making higher lows. During Phase C, the Composite Man ensures that there is little supply left in the market, i.e., the ones that were to sell already did.
The Spring often breaks the support levels to stop out traders and mislead investors. We may describe it as a final attempt to buy shares at a lower price before the uptrend starts. The bear trap induces retail investors to give up their holdings.
In some cases, however, the support levels manage to hold, and the Spring simply does not occur. In other words, there may be Accumulation Schematics that present all other elements but not the Spring . Still, the overall scheme continues to be valid.
Phase D
Phase D represents the transition between Cause and Effect. It stands between the Accumulation zone (Phase C) and the breakout of the trading range (Phase E).
Typically, Phase D shows a significant increase in trading volume and volatility . It usually has a Last Point Support ( LPS ), making a higher low before the market moves higher. The LPS often precedes a breakout of the resistance levels, which in turn creates higher highs. This indicates Signs of Strength (SOS), as previous resistances become brand new supports.
Despite the somewhat confusing terminology, there may be more than one LPS during Phase D. They often have increased trading volume while testing the new support lines. In some cases, the price may create a small consolidation zone before effectively breaking the bigger trading range and moving to Phase E.
Phase E
Phase E is the last stage of an Accumulation Schematic. It is marked by an evident breakout of the trading range, caused by increased market demand. This is when the trading range is effectively broken, and the uptrend starts.
Note
WE YET ADJUSTED IT since no man can predict dates. I just placed the line at reasonable time of dumps and pumps.
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