BTC/USD. cyclycal analysis
Updated
In the last analysis, I was long on btc and my targets were 10400 and 10800-11100 area (still on the radar).
What I wanna show to you is my cyclical analysis. I opened a lot of positions following this. As you can see, we have different cycles; blue vertical lines show where is it possible to have a top; red vertical lines show where is it possible to have a bottom.
I think bears are in control because we had LOWER HIGH and btc never broke the previous high since 14000, so each bounce is being shorted.
The structure will change if btc will break the red rectangle and the black trendline which is working as resistance since 14000.
What I have on my mind are the following scenarios:
- Blue scenario: the most logical scenario at the moment. Top at 11200 area (red rectangle and trendline) in about 3 days ( 6 september), then drop to 9400 area, then rise again and final dump 23-25 september.
- Red scenario: Top at 11200 in 3 days, the same of blue scenario, then drop to 9400. People will think "btc is dead, is going to 7500", they will short and we will have a short squeeze and btc will reach again the red rectangle/ the trendline (11200 area). At this point I could expect a break of this area. People will fomo because the breakout of the trendline and btc could reach 12000 area, then dump.
We have some points in common in the scenarios:
- We will have a top in 11200 area
- Btc will dump to 9400 area
- Around 23 september we will have another dip.
If btc will break the trendline that is working as support, i think we could drop under 8000, but i will updtade!
What I wanna show to you is my cyclical analysis. I opened a lot of positions following this. As you can see, we have different cycles; blue vertical lines show where is it possible to have a top; red vertical lines show where is it possible to have a bottom.
I think bears are in control because we had LOWER HIGH and btc never broke the previous high since 14000, so each bounce is being shorted.
The structure will change if btc will break the red rectangle and the black trendline which is working as resistance since 14000.
What I have on my mind are the following scenarios:
- Blue scenario: the most logical scenario at the moment. Top at 11200 area (red rectangle and trendline) in about 3 days ( 6 september), then drop to 9400 area, then rise again and final dump 23-25 september.
- Red scenario: Top at 11200 in 3 days, the same of blue scenario, then drop to 9400. People will think "btc is dead, is going to 7500", they will short and we will have a short squeeze and btc will reach again the red rectangle/ the trendline (11200 area). At this point I could expect a break of this area. People will fomo because the breakout of the trendline and btc could reach 12000 area, then dump.
We have some points in common in the scenarios:
- We will have a top in 11200 area
- Btc will dump to 9400 area
- Around 23 september we will have another dip.
If btc will break the trendline that is working as support, i think we could drop under 8000, but i will updtade!
Note
Everything is going in the right direction. Don't think in term of price, but in term of price :)Note
Someone told you "final dump 23-25 september?" :D
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