Identifying Factors for a Pending Trend Reversal
Defining whether the market is in a bullish or bearish trend at any given moment is relatively easy. but the ability to determine when a trend will revert is a completely different science. Of course there are a number of technical analysis principles and trading indicators that help do that on a micro level, but defining when the macro trend will change is a beast that nobody can truly claim with 100% conviction and certainty. Sure, you can analyze the chart and determine where you think the resistance/support flips are going to occur but identifying that singular moment when the macro-trend is going to break out or break down really can't be accurately forecasted, but that doesn't keep every analyst from trying to figure it out.
As a self proclaimed data junkie and student of the charts, I am fascinated by technical analysis and how the geometry in the charts can tell us so much about a trend and the price price movement within it, but I'm also intrigued by historical data. We all know that past performance doesn't guarantee future results. That said, looking at historical data can help identify some possibilities you may not have seen in the chart before. Anytime I find similarities or consistency between conditions, situations and price movement, I'm paying attention and creating strategies that would capitalize on those opportunities if they should play out. While analyzing the BTC long range chart I discovered a number of things that happened from exactly the same price range BTC is in now, that led me to take a closer look. What I found, lends enough data to support the theory that a trend defining move is about to occur very soon. That in itself is not really hot news, but there is reason to believe this move might occur on a specific date. Before I go any further let me state the fact that I am a skeptic, and I don't believe that anybody can accurately forecast that BTC is going to be 20k, 100k or 500k per BTC let alone pin point a date, and I'll restate the fact that past performance doesn't guarantee future results. So how can I pinpoint a date for the next trend defining move? There is a distinct combination of technical indicators to build an idea around, combined with some similarities in the historical BTC chart. This combination points to the market closing in on a potentially trend defining move occurring from this range very soon. But don't take my word for it. Take a look at the data and decide for yourself.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The first thing I noticed in the chart is that on June 3, 2019 BTC broke down from a micro bullish trend into the green box we are trading in now. This looks very similar to the move that occured on December 4, 2019, from a similar structure in the same range. Looking beyond that, it's clear that there have been a lot of very important moves from this 6900 - 7700 range we are waiting to break out or break down from. In fact, what you'll notice is that just about all of the trend defining moves up or down happened from or very near this range. Many of the breakouts started from a bounce from local support near the bottom of the green box, in the 6800 - 7000 range, and all of the macro trend break downs occurred from that same area. You may ask why. I know I did, which is why I went back to the charts to look for something else. There are a lot of factors that point to the fact that the price action in the charts is not always organic and from time to time (if not more often than we imagine) some one or a group of someones may be using their capital to manipulate price action in either direction.
A CLOSER LOOK
As I previously stated, I'm a skeptic. I'm also not a conspiracy theorist nor someone who typically points to specific hard dates because that can be damning. So let me explain why I feel differently this time. Anybody who has been trading crypto for any length of time has undoubtedly been on the wrong end of a seemingly freakish move that gave no indication it was coming. Many times those moves are driven by FOMO and FUD, even if it's FUD driven by false reports and accusations. Sometimes those moves are the genuine product of an illiquid order book, and sometimes those moves are controlled by whales and pools who are using their HODLings to establish price floors and ceilings in the form of buy and sell walls which are visible on the order book. Since we know that manipulation happens sometimes, what makes us think that it doesn't happen all of the time. Do the manipulators have a conscience and limits to their greed? Doubtful.
Not yet satisfied that my first and second looks at the chart told the complete story, I went back to the long range chart again to try to identify something else. Then, by looking for all of the macro trend reversals on the chart I found 2 prominent moves that defined the macro trend and they both occurred on the same date of adjacent years. On December 17, 2017 BTC surged to an all time high ending the bull run which launched it's breakout move from this same 6900 range about a month earlier, the trend reverts and the bears take control. That alone was not enough for me, so I continued to look for another piece of the puzzle. What I found was that the macro bearish trend that began after BTC topped out continued for exactly one year. BTC bottomed out (we hope) before reversing the trend back upward on, wait for it...December 17, 2018. Coincidence? Possibly.
Only time will tell if this theory has real meritt. To be honest, I'm kind of hoping it doesn't, because if the trend reversal correlates with December 17th again, it will not only mean that the whales are truly controlling every significant move in the market, but it will also mean that they are sharing a calendar.
*I am not a financial advisor and this in not financial advice. Trading is risky. Do your own research and never risk more than you can afford to lose. I trade crypto and securities.
As a self proclaimed data junkie and student of the charts, I am fascinated by technical analysis and how the geometry in the charts can tell us so much about a trend and the price price movement within it, but I'm also intrigued by historical data. We all know that past performance doesn't guarantee future results. That said, looking at historical data can help identify some possibilities you may not have seen in the chart before. Anytime I find similarities or consistency between conditions, situations and price movement, I'm paying attention and creating strategies that would capitalize on those opportunities if they should play out. While analyzing the BTC long range chart I discovered a number of things that happened from exactly the same price range BTC is in now, that led me to take a closer look. What I found, lends enough data to support the theory that a trend defining move is about to occur very soon. That in itself is not really hot news, but there is reason to believe this move might occur on a specific date. Before I go any further let me state the fact that I am a skeptic, and I don't believe that anybody can accurately forecast that BTC is going to be 20k, 100k or 500k per BTC let alone pin point a date, and I'll restate the fact that past performance doesn't guarantee future results. So how can I pinpoint a date for the next trend defining move? There is a distinct combination of technical indicators to build an idea around, combined with some similarities in the historical BTC chart. This combination points to the market closing in on a potentially trend defining move occurring from this range very soon. But don't take my word for it. Take a look at the data and decide for yourself.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The first thing I noticed in the chart is that on June 3, 2019 BTC broke down from a micro bullish trend into the green box we are trading in now. This looks very similar to the move that occured on December 4, 2019, from a similar structure in the same range. Looking beyond that, it's clear that there have been a lot of very important moves from this 6900 - 7700 range we are waiting to break out or break down from. In fact, what you'll notice is that just about all of the trend defining moves up or down happened from or very near this range. Many of the breakouts started from a bounce from local support near the bottom of the green box, in the 6800 - 7000 range, and all of the macro trend break downs occurred from that same area. You may ask why. I know I did, which is why I went back to the charts to look for something else. There are a lot of factors that point to the fact that the price action in the charts is not always organic and from time to time (if not more often than we imagine) some one or a group of someones may be using their capital to manipulate price action in either direction.
A CLOSER LOOK
As I previously stated, I'm a skeptic. I'm also not a conspiracy theorist nor someone who typically points to specific hard dates because that can be damning. So let me explain why I feel differently this time. Anybody who has been trading crypto for any length of time has undoubtedly been on the wrong end of a seemingly freakish move that gave no indication it was coming. Many times those moves are driven by FOMO and FUD, even if it's FUD driven by false reports and accusations. Sometimes those moves are the genuine product of an illiquid order book, and sometimes those moves are controlled by whales and pools who are using their HODLings to establish price floors and ceilings in the form of buy and sell walls which are visible on the order book. Since we know that manipulation happens sometimes, what makes us think that it doesn't happen all of the time. Do the manipulators have a conscience and limits to their greed? Doubtful.
Not yet satisfied that my first and second looks at the chart told the complete story, I went back to the long range chart again to try to identify something else. Then, by looking for all of the macro trend reversals on the chart I found 2 prominent moves that defined the macro trend and they both occurred on the same date of adjacent years. On December 17, 2017 BTC surged to an all time high ending the bull run which launched it's breakout move from this same 6900 range about a month earlier, the trend reverts and the bears take control. That alone was not enough for me, so I continued to look for another piece of the puzzle. What I found was that the macro bearish trend that began after BTC topped out continued for exactly one year. BTC bottomed out (we hope) before reversing the trend back upward on, wait for it...December 17, 2018. Coincidence? Possibly.
Only time will tell if this theory has real meritt. To be honest, I'm kind of hoping it doesn't, because if the trend reversal correlates with December 17th again, it will not only mean that the whales are truly controlling every significant move in the market, but it will also mean that they are sharing a calendar.
*I am not a financial advisor and this in not financial advice. Trading is risky. Do your own research and never risk more than you can afford to lose. I trade crypto and securities.
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