To Infinity and Beyond
Updated
Well, not exactly. Things are not looking good for Bitcoin in the near-term, but there are still plenty of reasons to be optimistic. I do not trade 
BTC but like to keep up with its price and test my strategies with it. I’m making this post to see how accurate my predictions are in a few months, and will use it to influence future trading plans. Since I do not have a dog in this fight, I’m going to try to give the most unbiased analysis possible.
From what I’m seeing, I think the price is ready to make another drop to $51,500 - perhaps even lower.
BTC is currently in a Primary ④ that started in April, which I think will retrace to at least 0.618 of the previous impulse. Closer up, we can also see that the price is slipping below the RMI trend line. I’m counting this current wave as a (C) wave, so given this context I think we will start to see selling pressure ramp up in the coming days.
There is a huge FVG from $59,000 to $53,000, which could be an area of support. In keeping with Wave Theory guidelines, an alternative prediction is that ④ could terminate closer to (4) of the previous impulse. If this scenario were to play out, 0.618 on the Primary Fib Extension ($41,000) would be another area of possible support and the price would clear a lesser FVG to arrive there as well.
Between the two, I’m leaning towards the first theory because getting to $51,00 by mid-July would make ④ more proportional. Additionally, as we zoom out, we can see that the peak of ① is awfully close to BTC’s current levels. The rules state that a W4 cannot enter W1’s price territory, and so far the closing price has not breached it on the Weekly chart (although it has on the Daily). Currencies behave differently than indexes so this is somewhat excusable, however it is another reason to keep in mind that the price may not drop below the FVG, so it could be a safe buying zone.
Once ④ ends, Bitcoin will most likely reach new ATHs to finish out the year. As ridiculous as it sounds, I think $100,000 in ⑤ is not out of the question! Let me know if you’re arriving at a similar conclusion or if you have any questions about my analysis.
BTC but like to keep up with its price and test my strategies with it. I’m making this post to see how accurate my predictions are in a few months, and will use it to influence future trading plans. Since I do not have a dog in this fight, I’m going to try to give the most unbiased analysis possible. From what I’m seeing, I think the price is ready to make another drop to $51,500 - perhaps even lower.
BTC is currently in a Primary ④ that started in April, which I think will retrace to at least 0.618 of the previous impulse. Closer up, we can also see that the price is slipping below the RMI trend line. I’m counting this current wave as a (C) wave, so given this context I think we will start to see selling pressure ramp up in the coming days. There is a huge FVG from $59,000 to $53,000, which could be an area of support. In keeping with Wave Theory guidelines, an alternative prediction is that ④ could terminate closer to (4) of the previous impulse. If this scenario were to play out, 0.618 on the Primary Fib Extension ($41,000) would be another area of possible support and the price would clear a lesser FVG to arrive there as well.
Between the two, I’m leaning towards the first theory because getting to $51,00 by mid-July would make ④ more proportional. Additionally, as we zoom out, we can see that the peak of ① is awfully close to BTC’s current levels. The rules state that a W4 cannot enter W1’s price territory, and so far the closing price has not breached it on the Weekly chart (although it has on the Daily). Currencies behave differently than indexes so this is somewhat excusable, however it is another reason to keep in mind that the price may not drop below the FVG, so it could be a safe buying zone.
Once ④ ends, Bitcoin will most likely reach new ATHs to finish out the year. As ridiculous as it sounds, I think $100,000 in ⑤ is not out of the question! Let me know if you’re arriving at a similar conclusion or if you have any questions about my analysis.
Note
So far this prediction has been pretty accurate. BTC is currently trading at $55,500 after bouncing off a recent low of $53,400. While it is possible that the price drops to the 1.618 retracement of (A), I think there will be enough support at 1.236 ($52,500) for the reversal. Watch this level closely and see if the momentum changes directions. Could make for a great long entry point.
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