Hello everyone!
I'm starting to take a closer look at interesting 8H timeframe. On one hand it is twice as reliable as the 4H for trend detection, on other hand it is more likely to tell me what is going to happen than a 1D timeframe chart.
Yes, and for this chart I set the classic settings to Ichimoku because I am testing some preconceptions about non-compliance of crypto market with rules of classic market.
So, what we see here.
Since late July, bitcoin has broken out from under EMA200 and is flying above EMA100/200 having made its last retest of EMA200 a month ago. That's a lot. The move needs a confirmation of reliability.
We just got classic bearish butterfly pattern. But that's not all. If you lower your eyes to bottom panel (VFI) right now, you will see that we have a pretty tangible divergence in volume. This is not what the picture looks like before a big hike upward.
Only a short momentum in 52-53K corridor is possible.
I have already taken my short position at 51K-52K but I will put some more orders at equal intervals (in 300$) in this range. Even for the sake of interest I will put an order at 54K. But not higher. Stop 56K.
Pay attention that now Senkou Span A/B lines have formed such a parallel "corridor" and are close to each other. Technically such situation may indicate both lateral movement further, and a hint of trend exhaustion.
To confirm uptrend, retest of one of moving averages EMA50/100/200 will be required here.
And here is where intrigue arises, the upside movement can be sustained only if the correction is limited to retest of EMA50. Which now approximately corresponds to ~48600 level. But such size correction does not correspond to length of the "leg" after the end of butterfly figure. Most likely, retest of EMA100 will be needed at least.
But EMA100 retest means a break-down of Kumo cloud, after which it will start functioning as a resistance. And that will mean a real change of trend. I think.
Therefore the first probable correction is a test of the EMA100 at ~46,5K.
After that I expect a red cloud will form and depending on its shape, it will be possible to say when the breakthrough and retest of EMA200 will happen. Only then we can speak about desired levels 44K, 40K, 36K, 30K, 24K and hopefully 20K.
Remember, all the past rise of bitcoin always ended up close to mining cost. Always. Today should be in ~16-24K range.
And just to remind you of obvious, many have already posted bearish divergence on RSI (so I won't duplicate that, there are plenty of those charts). Yes, don't think it won't work, it really hurts.
And lastly S&P500 is at historic high. Do you think there won't be a correction? Or that at snap of your fingers Bitcoin will become the new digital gold and head in opposite direction from the S&P500? Don't think so.
Manipulators are very good at convincing in «soon ATH» and confidently liquidating shorts. But it's just a game, if it's a real run, where are real volumes? A raspy pullback through a series of levels is also possible if S&P500 collapses.
Respectfully to all, and without trying to advise or persuade anyone.
P.S. I don't like to write nonsense like "Not a trading advice." Everyone has their own head on their shoulders.
P.P.S. While I was writing something happened there, maybe butterfly is complete.
I'm starting to take a closer look at interesting 8H timeframe. On one hand it is twice as reliable as the 4H for trend detection, on other hand it is more likely to tell me what is going to happen than a 1D timeframe chart.
Yes, and for this chart I set the classic settings to Ichimoku because I am testing some preconceptions about non-compliance of crypto market with rules of classic market.
So, what we see here.
Since late July, bitcoin has broken out from under EMA200 and is flying above EMA100/200 having made its last retest of EMA200 a month ago. That's a lot. The move needs a confirmation of reliability.
We just got classic bearish butterfly pattern. But that's not all. If you lower your eyes to bottom panel (VFI) right now, you will see that we have a pretty tangible divergence in volume. This is not what the picture looks like before a big hike upward.
Only a short momentum in 52-53K corridor is possible.
I have already taken my short position at 51K-52K but I will put some more orders at equal intervals (in 300$) in this range. Even for the sake of interest I will put an order at 54K. But not higher. Stop 56K.
Pay attention that now Senkou Span A/B lines have formed such a parallel "corridor" and are close to each other. Technically such situation may indicate both lateral movement further, and a hint of trend exhaustion.
To confirm uptrend, retest of one of moving averages EMA50/100/200 will be required here.
And here is where intrigue arises, the upside movement can be sustained only if the correction is limited to retest of EMA50. Which now approximately corresponds to ~48600 level. But such size correction does not correspond to length of the "leg" after the end of butterfly figure. Most likely, retest of EMA100 will be needed at least.
But EMA100 retest means a break-down of Kumo cloud, after which it will start functioning as a resistance. And that will mean a real change of trend. I think.
Therefore the first probable correction is a test of the EMA100 at ~46,5K.
After that I expect a red cloud will form and depending on its shape, it will be possible to say when the breakthrough and retest of EMA200 will happen. Only then we can speak about desired levels 44K, 40K, 36K, 30K, 24K and hopefully 20K.
Remember, all the past rise of bitcoin always ended up close to mining cost. Always. Today should be in ~16-24K range.
And just to remind you of obvious, many have already posted bearish divergence on RSI (so I won't duplicate that, there are plenty of those charts). Yes, don't think it won't work, it really hurts.
And lastly S&P500 is at historic high. Do you think there won't be a correction? Or that at snap of your fingers Bitcoin will become the new digital gold and head in opposite direction from the S&P500? Don't think so.
Manipulators are very good at convincing in «soon ATH» and confidently liquidating shorts. But it's just a game, if it's a real run, where are real volumes? A raspy pullback through a series of levels is also possible if S&P500 collapses.
Respectfully to all, and without trying to advise or persuade anyone.
P.S. I don't like to write nonsense like "Not a trading advice." Everyone has their own head on their shoulders.
P.P.S. While I was writing something happened there, maybe butterfly is complete.
Trade active
Trade closed: target reached
TP 44000$Note
Remember! Such thin clouds necks on large timeframes are a very bad sign. It worked out the way it was supposed to work out.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.