BTC is the king of surprises. It rarely does what the majority thinks it will do. Most people called for 8.5k or lower before the last rally and missed out on huge gains. Just like when BTC was fighting at the 12k levels a week ago and most “experts” turned from calling 8.5k to predicting 13k+ and ‘moon’. Don’t try to catch the absolute bottom, dollar-cost averaging and accumulating peu a peu is a good way to diversify your BTC position.
BTC has proven itself as a legit hedge in the last couple of months, and the expectations towards BTC have changed; Now it’s not a question anymore whether BTC will survive or die but rather when BTC will continue its uptrend and manifest its position in the global economy as the 2nd gear go-to safe haven behind gold. Traditional markets around the world slowly start to crumble and economies are getting exposed for the incredible bubbles that government and central banks have created. BTC was created for those exact reasons, as an answer to our corrupt and fraudulent system and people slowly understand the true value behind Bitcoin, the value of a trustless, peer-to-peer decentralized and immutable global currency.
- BTC traded at a 1000-dollar premium in Argentina in lights of the huge stock market crash of 30% over night in addition to a drop of 20% in the Argentinian pesos.
- BTC traded at a huge premium in Zimbabwe in response to the hyperinflation created by the endless money printing reforms of the central bank
- BTC traded at a 1600 dollar premium in India when the Indian government banned Bitcoin from its country
- BTC rallied the day the Fed announced the 25 basis points cut end of July, while all traditional markets around the world started crashing ever since
.....
That being said, the chart right now does look rather bearish, we’ve been heavily rejected every time BTC has touched the upper boundary of the channel and experienced immense sell pressure.
In my last post, I pointed out that if we fail to break above the channel we will see a flash crash to the blue neckline around the 10k area and likely find support here, which is exactly what happened. We might see some days of consolidation around the 10k price area before BTC makes its next big move. However, the market sentiment is very negative at the moment with continuously decreasing volume and negative publicity, which indicates that the next big move will be to the downside.
BTC finishes what looks like an upward trending Head and Shoulders formation. If BTC breaks below the neckline, the blue trend line, we will see another flash crash just like the one we had in the last 2 days, which will propel us quickly into the low 9000s and possible even lower.
The most obvious interpretation of the chart in my eyes is that we are currently completing sub-wave 3 of the final wave C down in the ABC Correction, which is also the end of the left shoulder. Thus, we will see a 5th and final wave in the next days that will push us to a new low of this correction. How low BTC can and will go is impossible to tell. Ironically, I also see 8.5k as a logical target.
Nevertheless, as mentioned in the beginning, BTC tends to behave abnormally and do exactly the opposite of what most people and investors/traders believe.
The Bullish scenario would be if BTC manages to stay above the blue neckline and close above the 10800 region in the next days.
BTC has strong support at its current level with the .618 Fibo right under its nose and the blue trendline holding the price up. We are also forming a 3rd higher low since the 17th of July when we hit the current low of 9000.
BTC has proven itself as a legit hedge in the last couple of months, and the expectations towards BTC have changed; Now it’s not a question anymore whether BTC will survive or die but rather when BTC will continue its uptrend and manifest its position in the global economy as the 2nd gear go-to safe haven behind gold. Traditional markets around the world slowly start to crumble and economies are getting exposed for the incredible bubbles that government and central banks have created. BTC was created for those exact reasons, as an answer to our corrupt and fraudulent system and people slowly understand the true value behind Bitcoin, the value of a trustless, peer-to-peer decentralized and immutable global currency.
- BTC traded at a 1000-dollar premium in Argentina in lights of the huge stock market crash of 30% over night in addition to a drop of 20% in the Argentinian pesos.
- BTC traded at a huge premium in Zimbabwe in response to the hyperinflation created by the endless money printing reforms of the central bank
- BTC traded at a 1600 dollar premium in India when the Indian government banned Bitcoin from its country
- BTC rallied the day the Fed announced the 25 basis points cut end of July, while all traditional markets around the world started crashing ever since
.....
That being said, the chart right now does look rather bearish, we’ve been heavily rejected every time BTC has touched the upper boundary of the channel and experienced immense sell pressure.
In my last post, I pointed out that if we fail to break above the channel we will see a flash crash to the blue neckline around the 10k area and likely find support here, which is exactly what happened. We might see some days of consolidation around the 10k price area before BTC makes its next big move. However, the market sentiment is very negative at the moment with continuously decreasing volume and negative publicity, which indicates that the next big move will be to the downside.
BTC finishes what looks like an upward trending Head and Shoulders formation. If BTC breaks below the neckline, the blue trend line, we will see another flash crash just like the one we had in the last 2 days, which will propel us quickly into the low 9000s and possible even lower.
The most obvious interpretation of the chart in my eyes is that we are currently completing sub-wave 3 of the final wave C down in the ABC Correction, which is also the end of the left shoulder. Thus, we will see a 5th and final wave in the next days that will push us to a new low of this correction. How low BTC can and will go is impossible to tell. Ironically, I also see 8.5k as a logical target.
Nevertheless, as mentioned in the beginning, BTC tends to behave abnormally and do exactly the opposite of what most people and investors/traders believe.
The Bullish scenario would be if BTC manages to stay above the blue neckline and close above the 10800 region in the next days.
BTC has strong support at its current level with the .618 Fibo right under its nose and the blue trendline holding the price up. We are also forming a 3rd higher low since the 17th of July when we hit the current low of 9000.
Note
BTC is looking very strong at the moment, up 1000$ since the Bakkt announcement. So far it hasn't broken the neckline significantly. And is currently fighting to get back above the 1830 level. closing above the 21 MA. If BTC manages to close above the 21 MA, I would turn bullish and expect a push towards 11700+, retesting the upper trendline of this masssive forming wedge.
The RSI looks strong and is about to break above the key resistance area.
BTC also forms another inverse H&S formation. IF we actually manage to get past the 1830 price range, and continue upwards retesting the resistanceg, then I would be very optimistic that we actually can break above it this time and BTC will continue this bull market while pumping before the 23rd of September, the day Bakkt is launched. As so often in the Crypto market: Buy the rumor, sell the fact. Whether or not the launch of Bakkt has any impact on the price of BTC remains to be seen, however it does sound like bullish news when ICE, the mother company of NYSE - the biggest and most valuable stock exchange in the world - announces that it will open a legalized and approved Crypto exchange that allows its same clients to have safe access to the crypto world and BTC.
The daily trading volume on the NYSE is somewhere between 20 - 30 Billion dollars.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.