Bitcoin's next opportunity to jump in with wave 3
Updated
First let's take a look at the bigger picture here:
First, we are near a major resistance which is 50% of the correction starting 48K down to 15K.
Second, we are at the start of the wave 3 both on daily and hourly chart.
On the hourly chart, possible pivot points can be here as the end of wave C based on the wave A fibo.
Getting the exact bottom can be hard and hit stop loss, so crossing over the bearish cyan trend line maybe a safer long entry signal (in that regard, 32K breakout maybe a safer signal).
If the bigger wave 3 moves at least as much as the bigger wave 1 (the yellow fibo on daily chart) then we can get to 40K...
What do you think?
First, we are near a major resistance which is 50% of the correction starting 48K down to 15K.
Second, we are at the start of the wave 3 both on daily and hourly chart.
On the hourly chart, possible pivot points can be here as the end of wave C based on the wave A fibo.
Getting the exact bottom can be hard and hit stop loss, so crossing over the bearish cyan trend line maybe a safer long entry signal (in that regard, 32K breakout maybe a safer signal).
If the bigger wave 3 moves at least as much as the bigger wave 1 (the yellow fibo on daily chart) then we can get to 40K...
What do you think?
Note
It is also possible that we see more correction down and a kind of fake breakout of the bearish trendline. The next possible targets could be lower in the 28K-29K area...
Note
Also consider weekly Ichimoku cloud for the 32K resistance. It has been more than 1 year since the price was above the cloud and it is a huge trend change for long term. The more robust trend change confirmation in this regard is when price passes 44K so that lagging span crosses over the red cloud.Note
Interesting resistance at top of the red ichimoku cloud for TOTAL. Close above it can be a good signal for bullish trend.Note
The last possible region for C wave played out quite well and also the bearish trend line broke and retested. Now from here...Elliot perspective, we may have 2 scenarios ahead:
First that we just met wave B's peak and ahead to wave C and end of the correction. Breaking down 30K can be the confirmation.
Second that we were at the end of wave 1 and currently visiting the end of wave 2 and heading for wave 3. There is a perfect 61.8% of wave 1 holding right now which needs to stay that way. Breaking up 31K can be the confirmation.
Order book perspective, we had a good volume at the peak touching 31K but did not fill sell limits. Good volume means buyers and it suggests a bullish movement.
Current limit orders on the order book confirm that 30K and 31K are the most important levels here, just like the Elliot wave perspective!
Note
The trend line and wave 2 scenario is no longer valid. Now the correction looks like more valid. It can be finished with the last support or move lower as the targets you can see by the red waves. If the correction is over then we may see the start of new impulsive waves as the green waves.
On the orderbook the 30K limits are filled and now 29.5K are the next support of major limit orders block (which again perfectly fits 100% projection).
Note
Last swing to 30.8K seems to much to be considered (b) wave.
Since the correction is exactly 61.8% of the impulse, this can be the start of wave 3.
There is good bid on 30K again on the order book.
Trade active
Note
We can argue about a lot of different waves counting on this area, I don't insist on mine here, but the main point is the 30K support and 31K resistance. We did not have a single candle close (4Hour timeframe) outside this range and until we see a candle close outside this range, I count on this C to be the real end of correction since it moved more than A. That much sell pressure could not push the price lower than 29.5K (the price which we pointed out on Jun 29 update) and it bounced back very fast. Order book seems like that time (Jun 29) again! 30K then 29.5K supports and 31K resistance.
Note
According to the order book, currently 31.5K is the main resistance and I expect a big run after breaking it. If you look for breakout as an entry point it would be a good place for long entry.
If you look for pullback entry, based on Elliot waves shown on the chart, between 31K - 30.5K could be the potential area.
Again, we are at the start of wave 3 of the bigger wave 3.
Note
Since we did not pass up the 5th wave at 31.5K, this is another possible scenario which indicates that we have not seen the end of correction.
In that case 30K-29.5K could be the next possible pullback area.
Note
Seems like the start of wave 3 of the bigger wave 3
First resistance at 31K, next 31.5K
Note
Although market filled a portion of limit sell orders at 31.5K but then it got rejected hard.
Now on the orderbook, 30K is the main support with 29.5K next to it. Let's see how they react to them.
Note
30K support buy limit orders seems to be filled on the order book and it does not seem to be a solid support anymore. Looking for 29.5K reaction.
Note
Pointing out both bullish and bearish scenarios again in higher timeframes with the latest info on the chart. The bullish scenario (green waves) may seem more probable as the price rejects coming lower (for now) but the bearish scenario with the extended wave 3 is also possible (red waves). Both of them suggest the same movement in the short term but we should wait for breakouts to confirm which way may last. It can even come back from here at 30K and break 31.5K up.
Other charts like US 10Y bonds, Gold and DXY are not helping since they are also giving conflicting signals and it only makes everything more complicated.
nfa & dyor
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