Is the bull market over? Ultimate Bitcoin (BTC) analysis
Updated
Hello, Skyrexians!
Last month was bloody for the crypto market.
BTCUSDT dumped from 70k to 63k, altcoins have completely dead and broke the belief for the altseason. We suppose that now nobody wants to hear anything about altseason and crypto. Most of traders has -50-60% portfolio loss and even cryptocurrency trading platforms which are using the automated trading bot faced with the huge losses. Will this dump continue or now is the reversal point and the forbidden word "altseason" can be said again in the nearest future? Let's try to understand!
Bitcoin weekly time frame analysis
First of all let's take a look at the 1W BTC time frame using our cryptocurrency trading strategy. This timeframe is good to describe current bull run with the Elliott waves. The first we shall do is to find the highest high on the Awesome oscillator. This top corresponds to the recent top at 73k. Therefore, there is a high probability that now price is printing the wave 4.
We have the minimal requirement to finish this wave is the cross of the zero line by Awesome oscillator. We need to see much more candles for this crossover. It means that wave 4 will be finished at least in September. The good news that target price has been already reached or almost reached, that's why we don't expect the significant drop from here. 0.38-0.5 Fibonacci retracement from wave 3 is enough to finish this correction. It means that max drop is possible to 49k. When the reversal bar will be printed there correction is gonna be over.
After that the major wave 5 is expected which can reach 85-107k depends on if it's gonna be extended or not. We will have more precise target when this wave be in progress. Then the bull run is gonna be finished and the next bear market can potentially be huge, but now it's too early to talk about it.
Last month was bloody for the crypto market.
BTCUSDT dumped from 70k to 63k, altcoins have completely dead and broke the belief for the altseason. We suppose that now nobody wants to hear anything about altseason and crypto. Most of traders has -50-60% portfolio loss and even cryptocurrency trading platforms which are using the automated trading bot faced with the huge losses. Will this dump continue or now is the reversal point and the forbidden word "altseason" can be said again in the nearest future? Let's try to understand!Bitcoin weekly time frame analysis
First of all let's take a look at the 1W BTC time frame using our cryptocurrency trading strategy. This timeframe is good to describe current bull run with the Elliott waves. The first we shall do is to find the highest high on the Awesome oscillator. This top corresponds to the recent top at 73k. Therefore, there is a high probability that now price is printing the wave 4.
We have the minimal requirement to finish this wave is the cross of the zero line by Awesome oscillator. We need to see much more candles for this crossover. It means that wave 4 will be finished at least in September. The good news that target price has been already reached or almost reached, that's why we don't expect the significant drop from here. 0.38-0.5 Fibonacci retracement from wave 3 is enough to finish this correction. It means that max drop is possible to 49k. When the reversal bar will be printed there correction is gonna be over.
After that the major wave 5 is expected which can reach 85-107k depends on if it's gonna be extended or not. We will have more precise target when this wave be in progress. Then the bull run is gonna be finished and the next bear market can potentially be huge, but now it's too early to talk about it.
Note
Is wave 3 really finished?The price chart below answers this question. Like usual Bitcoin has prepared a trap for us. We expected FWB:77K before this drop as the wave 5 inside 3, but it seems that wave 5 was shortened. Awesome Oscillator showed the early divergence which should be under consideration.
What does it mean? It means that dump from 72k to
52K is just a wave A inside wave 4.Note
When correction will be over?Currently Bitcoin is in wave 4. This is the most difficult wave for traders, it will take time to be finished. As we can see now, the Wave A is over, bullish reversal bar has been already printed on the 1D time frame. Now it's time for bull trap in wave B. Its target is inside 0.5-0.61 Fibonacci retracement area. This is
64K price level. There we have to look for the bearish setup and be prepared for another one dump. This dump will likely set the lower low, as we pointed out earlier, it's max target 49k. When ABC cycle will be finished we are ready for the growth to the final bull run ATH in this cycle. Be patient!Note
ConclusionDespite the overall bearish sentiment and the fear on the market we expect the increase in price soon. In general, dump is not over, but its most active part is finished. You can see now a lot of bears which prints for you double top pattern, telling us that game is over. Don't pay attention to emotions which you have. We tried to bring you enough arguments that this bull run is not over. Next time we will make an update on altcoins, subscribe us and never miss the valuable analysis.
Best regards,
Skyrex Team
Trade closed: target reached
The first target at 64K has been already reached. We assumed that it will be reached in every possible scenario.Our main scenario was the pump to
64K in wave B and dump to 50k in wave C after, but current pump does not look like wave B. It's very impulsive and can be wave 1 inside next bullish wave. We take time to make a new big analysisfor you. Follow us and don't miss this important update! Congratulations to those who did not panicked at the bottom and now have profit!
Note
We decided to make a small update. Current growth from 53k to 66k looks like a clear impulsive wave. It consists of 5 waves and this impulse looks like to be finished already. We can see the bearish divergence between waves 3 and 5, bearish reversal bar at the top and a great angle with the Alligator. Now we anticipate correction to 0.5 Fibonacci zone, approximately at 60k. Important note: Bitcoin tends to show very small corrections and this correction can be in shape of the flat one, in this case it will be finished at 63k. Follow our analysis and don't miss the update, market is very manipulative now and it's very important to have the new updates!
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