14/07/25 Weekly Outlook

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Last weeks high: $119,494.32
Last weeks low: $107,467.52
Midpoint: $113,480.92

NEW BTC ATH!

This is what we've all been waiting for, BTC breaks through resistance at $110,000-112,000 to set a the highest weekly close ever ($119,086). Thanks to a further $2.27B net inflows via BTC ETFs, the passing of the "big beautiful bill" flipping from a more deficit reduction stance by the US to an environment perfectly suited to risk on assets. Things are looking good for Bitcoin.

This week already in the Asia session BTC has broken above the weekly high to hit $123,100. Despite this incredible rally BTC.D has been falling since Thursday of last week. To me this signals altcoins have started to play catch up and we've seen that with ETH breaking $3000 (+14% relative to BTC).
I would like to see BTC consolidating here above the weekly high while altcoin majors break their choppy rangebound environments and shift to a trending environment just as BTC had last week.

There are also major data releases this week:

Tuesday CPI
Wednesday PPI
Thursday Euro CPI
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims

I do not expect these data releases to have a major effect on the markets in their current state due to the risk appetite we've seen in both crypto and equities, such shallow pullbacks prove the demand is there to absorb and sell-side pressure for now.

Now is an excellent time to back strong projects with great fundamentals that are breaking out from downtrends/ranges in both their USD & BTC pairs, as BTC.D drops alts can print some great returns. Beta plays of ETH & SOL can offer higher returns than the majors themselves in these market conditions too.

Good luck this week everybody!

Note
Looks like a SFP setup for the week here, losing the weekly high is a cause for concern. The 0.75 line holding strong for now, however it does look like the high is in.

Old ATH at ~$112,000 and midpoint look ready for a retest.
Note
After bouncing off 0.75 line support, now retesting the weekly high as resistance.
Note
Since deviating above the weekly high BTC has now dropped back within 0.75 line and weekly high.



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