BTC Market in Limbo: Patience or Action
BTC Analysis & Trading Plan
1. Overall Trend
• Longer timeframes (1D, 1W) remain in a structurally bullish trend (short MA still > long MA).
• Medium/short timeframes (2H, 4H, 6H) indicate a bearish bias or “lower range.”
• Sentiment indicators (ISPD, Mason’s, HPI) are generally in a neutral zone, with no signs of overbought or oversold conditions.
2. Key Levels
• Immediate support: 95-96k (confirmed by lower AVWAP, 3D Heatmap, and Liquidation Map).
• Critical weekly support: ~89k. A breakdown of this level could trigger a deeper correction toward 80k-74k.
• Short-term resistance: ~98k, followed by the 100-102k zone (short liquidation wall). Beyond that, 105-110k would become a realistic target.
3. ETF Flow & Liquidation
• ETF inflows have remained generally positive since late January, providing partial price support. The temporary outflows in mid-February align with the current consolidation.
• The 7-Day Liquidation Map confirms a significant number of short stop-losses above 98-99k. A decisive break above 100k could trigger a sharp short squeeze.
4. Best Timeframe for Positioning
• Given the volatility on 2H/4H and the lack of a clear trend, the 1D (or possibly 12H) timeframe offers more reliability. On the daily chart, the trend remains technically bullish, but price action is still in lateral correction.
• It’s preferable to wait for a daily close above ~98-99k for a more comfortable buying signal.
• Alternatively, a pullback to 95-94k could provide a lower entry point (consider a tight stop if 89k breaks).
5. Action Plan Summary
• Bullish scenario: If BTC reclaims 98-99k on a daily close, the first target would be 102-105k (AVWAP/heatmap resistance). In case of a short squeeze, 110k is possible.
• Bearish scenario: If 95k fails and price drops toward 89k, beware of a liquidation event. A breakdown of the weekly support at 89k could confirm a correction toward 80k, possibly 74k (50 W MA).
• Current state: The market is ranging with no strong momentum. Partial accumulation at the lower range (95k) is an option for patient traders, or one can wait for a breakout above 98-99k to trade the trend.
Final Thoughts
• The market remains structurally bullish but lacks strong momentum. ETF flows, institutional adoption, and macroeconomic factors contribute to this stagnation.
• ETF flow data and liquidation maps align with technical observations, confirming a tight consolidation range between 95k and 100k.
• In summary: neither extremely bullish nor bearish, but a setup that could persist for several weeks. Key levels to monitor are 95k and 89k as support, 98-100k as resistance.
Recommendations
• For swing trading or mid-to-long-term entries, the daily timeframe is preferable. Positioning near the 95k support or on a confirmed breakout above 99-100k offers a balanced approach.
• Closely monitor ETF inflows (a strong resurgence would confirm a rebound) and liquidation maps (major catalysts for price moves once key thresholds are breached).
1. Overall Trend
• Longer timeframes (1D, 1W) remain in a structurally bullish trend (short MA still > long MA).
• Medium/short timeframes (2H, 4H, 6H) indicate a bearish bias or “lower range.”
• Sentiment indicators (ISPD, Mason’s, HPI) are generally in a neutral zone, with no signs of overbought or oversold conditions.
2. Key Levels
• Immediate support: 95-96k (confirmed by lower AVWAP, 3D Heatmap, and Liquidation Map).
• Critical weekly support: ~89k. A breakdown of this level could trigger a deeper correction toward 80k-74k.
• Short-term resistance: ~98k, followed by the 100-102k zone (short liquidation wall). Beyond that, 105-110k would become a realistic target.
3. ETF Flow & Liquidation
• ETF inflows have remained generally positive since late January, providing partial price support. The temporary outflows in mid-February align with the current consolidation.
• The 7-Day Liquidation Map confirms a significant number of short stop-losses above 98-99k. A decisive break above 100k could trigger a sharp short squeeze.
4. Best Timeframe for Positioning
• Given the volatility on 2H/4H and the lack of a clear trend, the 1D (or possibly 12H) timeframe offers more reliability. On the daily chart, the trend remains technically bullish, but price action is still in lateral correction.
• It’s preferable to wait for a daily close above ~98-99k for a more comfortable buying signal.
• Alternatively, a pullback to 95-94k could provide a lower entry point (consider a tight stop if 89k breaks).
5. Action Plan Summary
• Bullish scenario: If BTC reclaims 98-99k on a daily close, the first target would be 102-105k (AVWAP/heatmap resistance). In case of a short squeeze, 110k is possible.
• Bearish scenario: If 95k fails and price drops toward 89k, beware of a liquidation event. A breakdown of the weekly support at 89k could confirm a correction toward 80k, possibly 74k (50 W MA).
• Current state: The market is ranging with no strong momentum. Partial accumulation at the lower range (95k) is an option for patient traders, or one can wait for a breakout above 98-99k to trade the trend.
Final Thoughts
• The market remains structurally bullish but lacks strong momentum. ETF flows, institutional adoption, and macroeconomic factors contribute to this stagnation.
• ETF flow data and liquidation maps align with technical observations, confirming a tight consolidation range between 95k and 100k.
• In summary: neither extremely bullish nor bearish, but a setup that could persist for several weeks. Key levels to monitor are 95k and 89k as support, 98-100k as resistance.
Recommendations
• For swing trading or mid-to-long-term entries, the daily timeframe is preferable. Positioning near the 95k support or on a confirmed breakout above 99-100k offers a balanced approach.
• Closely monitor ETF inflows (a strong resurgence would confirm a rebound) and liquidation maps (major catalysts for price moves once key thresholds are breached).
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.