As the fear draws near
Moving towards the next FOMC, markets remain generally strong, while a string of bad news hits crypto.
PCE data jerked markets, signalling the end of the bullish impulse for me. ES and NQ halted tracks a bit before this and started to descend.
Crypto continued to take a beating with the IMF recommending a potential banning of crypto for trade as it represents a threat to existing financial systems.
SI's insolvency was the major nail in the coffin that has had crypto dropping with the dollar while equities see some rallying.
It's interesting because it wasn't until asia market open that any real price action occurred. The drop in the BTC price in 14 minutes liquidated more than 200mm in positions.
BTC sits at a visible support on a trend line here. At the current prices, I think crypto is under-priced, and my bias has flipped long in the near term.
Lots of liquidations and fearful sentiment create turbulent and challenging trading conditions. My profitability has dwindled a lot - I got the PCE short and clocked huge gains on it, but couldn't maintain a short on BTC for the big draw down with 3 shorts being yanked away from me flat at the 22700 area. Last month was great, it could have been better if I managed to hold one of those though!
The next major mover is likely the FOMC where I expect a strong hawk stance from Jerome. He did a massive disservice to the efforts to fight inflation in his last FOMC talk mentioning "disinflation" 11 times. After FOMC, Jobs data and PPI showed strongly inflationary projections and the PCE really let the markets get a glimpse of how the battle is going. Also buried under the sheets, the past inflation data was re-adjusted higher, while markets ignored this and continued on in exuberance.
I see Fed constituents talking about a string of 25bps hikes. Drowned in the cheering of the market, I'd say that 50bps may more likely than people think. I'm really curious to see the dot plots - I think the expected terminal rates may make a large jump.
PCE data jerked markets, signalling the end of the bullish impulse for me. ES and NQ halted tracks a bit before this and started to descend.
Crypto continued to take a beating with the IMF recommending a potential banning of crypto for trade as it represents a threat to existing financial systems.
SI's insolvency was the major nail in the coffin that has had crypto dropping with the dollar while equities see some rallying.
It's interesting because it wasn't until asia market open that any real price action occurred. The drop in the BTC price in 14 minutes liquidated more than 200mm in positions.
BTC sits at a visible support on a trend line here. At the current prices, I think crypto is under-priced, and my bias has flipped long in the near term.
Lots of liquidations and fearful sentiment create turbulent and challenging trading conditions. My profitability has dwindled a lot - I got the PCE short and clocked huge gains on it, but couldn't maintain a short on BTC for the big draw down with 3 shorts being yanked away from me flat at the 22700 area. Last month was great, it could have been better if I managed to hold one of those though!
The next major mover is likely the FOMC where I expect a strong hawk stance from Jerome. He did a massive disservice to the efforts to fight inflation in his last FOMC talk mentioning "disinflation" 11 times. After FOMC, Jobs data and PPI showed strongly inflationary projections and the PCE really let the markets get a glimpse of how the battle is going. Also buried under the sheets, the past inflation data was re-adjusted higher, while markets ignored this and continued on in exuberance.
I see Fed constituents talking about a string of 25bps hikes. Drowned in the cheering of the market, I'd say that 50bps may more likely than people think. I'm really curious to see the dot plots - I think the expected terminal rates may make a large jump.
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