BTCUSDT DECISION POINT COMING SOON.
Updated
Important things to note:
I do not to expect the bloodshed in the markets to end anytime in the near future.
The credit market is still looking rough, inflation isn't great, supply issues continue.
The Fed will need to keep a hard stance until they break something, or see inflation at a level they can deal with.
BTC will stay correlated to QQQ until either it decouples via supply squeeze or market conditions improve.
You should expect the fed to pivot eventually.
I am not looking at alts at all until most likely 4 months from now.
BTC is squeezing and it will either fall to the lows we have seen or push upwards towards 33k.
The area of interest is where tons of BTC has exchanged hands. (80K BTC from LUNA).
I am not trading these levels, I am DCAing BTC only, and some Tradfi stocks.
Hey everyone! So I wanted to sit back and let the market soak in the last Fed rate hike and it digested it about as well as I imagined. With each rate hike, we have seen the markets convulse. This is mostly due to the credit market and it is stressed to say the least. Liquidity is drying up and when the Fed starts to tighten next month, it's going to been even drier than it is now. This is going to put tons of pressure on the credit market > which will put tons of pressure on the equity market > which will put tons of pressure on crypto. This is why I only expect the price to bounce around these lower levels until we see the Fed pivot (because they will have to). I am giving the Fed about 6 months until it has to skip a few rate hikes. Eventually they will be back to printing because that is their only option to keep the house of cards in place. BTC in particular will bottom likely near its cost basis of 24k (we have already gotten down to 25k BTCUSD), however it can revisit this level as many times as it takes. Something bullish to note is that 80k BTC (3B dollars worth) was dumped by the LUNA foundation and it was absorbed by the market extremely well. This has created an area of interest for me where there is a lot of gravitational pull. Price will want to go to this level, regardless if it goes down to 24 or up to 38, the area of interest will be hard to get away from in the short term. If you are wondering who is selling, it is mostly forced sellers (like LUNA), and funds that are rebalancing due to increased risk on their portfolios. This is why I am taking the opportunity to buy every BTC I can from them at these levels. That is my main focus for the next 4 months at least, then I will have my eye on alts. This is my personal timeline based on what I see in the market at the moment. I will continue to keep you all up to date with the market and I hope you enjoyed this chart! Thanks again everyone!
So tell me what you think?
Not financial advice. Do your own research.
I do not to expect the bloodshed in the markets to end anytime in the near future.
The credit market is still looking rough, inflation isn't great, supply issues continue.
The Fed will need to keep a hard stance until they break something, or see inflation at a level they can deal with.
BTC will stay correlated to QQQ until either it decouples via supply squeeze or market conditions improve.
You should expect the fed to pivot eventually.
I am not looking at alts at all until most likely 4 months from now.
BTC is squeezing and it will either fall to the lows we have seen or push upwards towards 33k.
The area of interest is where tons of BTC has exchanged hands. (80K BTC from LUNA).
I am not trading these levels, I am DCAing BTC only, and some Tradfi stocks.
Hey everyone! So I wanted to sit back and let the market soak in the last Fed rate hike and it digested it about as well as I imagined. With each rate hike, we have seen the markets convulse. This is mostly due to the credit market and it is stressed to say the least. Liquidity is drying up and when the Fed starts to tighten next month, it's going to been even drier than it is now. This is going to put tons of pressure on the credit market > which will put tons of pressure on the equity market > which will put tons of pressure on crypto. This is why I only expect the price to bounce around these lower levels until we see the Fed pivot (because they will have to). I am giving the Fed about 6 months until it has to skip a few rate hikes. Eventually they will be back to printing because that is their only option to keep the house of cards in place. BTC in particular will bottom likely near its cost basis of 24k (we have already gotten down to 25k BTCUSD), however it can revisit this level as many times as it takes. Something bullish to note is that 80k BTC (3B dollars worth) was dumped by the LUNA foundation and it was absorbed by the market extremely well. This has created an area of interest for me where there is a lot of gravitational pull. Price will want to go to this level, regardless if it goes down to 24 or up to 38, the area of interest will be hard to get away from in the short term. If you are wondering who is selling, it is mostly forced sellers (like LUNA), and funds that are rebalancing due to increased risk on their portfolios. This is why I am taking the opportunity to buy every BTC I can from them at these levels. That is my main focus for the next 4 months at least, then I will have my eye on alts. This is my personal timeline based on what I see in the market at the moment. I will continue to keep you all up to date with the market and I hope you enjoyed this chart! Thanks again everyone!
So tell me what you think?
Not financial advice. Do your own research.
Note
I forgot to mention the yellow trendline. This is what we will have our eye on for the time being. The small movements do not matter much, but I expect the bottom to form below this trendline, which is why I am going to watch for a breakout. Other than that I will DCA all of the movements.Note
BTC Correlation with QQQ has been decreasing little by little since 12th of May. Still above .9Note
Price is right in the middle of my blue "area of interest". Like I said, this area has its own gravitational pull, similar to a black hole, it will take a squeeze or violent market movement to stray price away from it.Note
I did some calculations based on previous recessions since the 90's because I figured they would be the most relevant. SPX at peak had a forward P/E of 21.39
SPX right now has a forward P/E of 19.44
The average decrease in forward P/E from peak to bottom of a recession is -24%
This means once SPX hits a forward P/E of 16.25, the recession is likely at its bottom.
Hope you find this useful. Cheers.
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