Bitcoin had an incredible run, breaking the old all-time high ($111,980) with strong bullish momentum and setting a fresh ATH at $123,218 (Binance). We just witnessed the first major corrective move of ~6% and a decent bounce so far — but the big question is:
What’s next? Will Bitcoin break higher over the summer or form a trading range here?
Let’s dive into the technicals.
🧩 Higher Timeframe Structure
May–June Range:
BTC was stuck between $110K–$100K, forming an ABC corrective pattern. Using trend-based Fib extension (TBFE) from A–B–C:
✅ C wave completed at $98,922 (1.0 TBFE)
✅ Upside target hit at $122,137 (-1 TBFE)
Full Bull Market TBFE:
➡️ 1.0 → $107,301 → previously rejected
➡️ 1.272 → $123,158 → recent rejection zone
Pitchfork (log scale):
➡️ Tapped the upper resistance edge before rejecting.
Previous Bear Market Fib Extension:
➡️ 2.0 extension at $122,524 hit.
2018–2022 Cycle TBFE:
➡️ 1.618 at $122,011 tapped.
Macro Fibonacci Channel:
➡️ Connecting 2018 low ($3,782), 2021 ATH ($69K), 2022 low ($15,476) →
1.618–1.666 resistance band: $121K–$123.5K.
✅ Conclusion: Multiple fib confluences mark the $122K–$123K zone as critical resistance.
Daily Timeframe
➡️ FVG / Imbalance:
Big daily Fair Value Gap between the prior ATH and $115,222 swing low.
BTC broke the prior ATH (pATH) without retest → a pullback to this zone is likely.
Lower Timeframe / Short-Term Outlook
We likely saw a completed 5-wave impulse up → now correcting.
The -6% move was probably wave A, current bounce = wave B, next leg = wave C.
➡ Wave B short zone: $120K–$121K
➡ Wave C target (1.0 TBFE projection): ~$113,326
➡ Confluence at mid-FVG + nPOC
Trade Setups
🔴 Short Setup:
🟢 Long Setup:
🧠 Educational Insight: Why Fibs Matter at Market Extremes
When markets push into new all-time highs, most classic support/resistance levels disappear — there’s simply no historical price action to lean on. That’s where Fibonacci extensions, channels, and projections become powerful tools.
Here’s why:
➡ Fibonacci extensions (like the 1.272, 1.618, 2.0) help estimate where trend exhaustion or profit-taking zones may appear. They are based on the psychology of crowd behavior, as traders anchor expectations to proportional moves from previous swings.
➡ Trend-Based Fib Extensions (TBFE) project potential reversal or continuation zones using not just price levels, but also the symmetry of prior wave moves.
➡ Fibonacci channels align trend angles across multiple market cycles, giving macro context — like how the 2018 low, 2021 ATH, and 2022 low project the current 1.618–1.666 resistance zone.
In short:
When you don’t have left-hand price history, you lean on right-hand geometry.
That’s why the $122K–123K zone wasn’t just random — it’s a convergence of multiple fib levels, cycle projections, and technical structures across timeframes.
⚡ Final Thoughts
Bitcoin faces major resistance around $122K–$123K backed by multiple fib and structural levels. A retest of the prior ATH zone (~$112K–$113K) looks probable before the next big directional move. Watch lower timeframe structure for signs of completion in this corrective phase.
_________________________________
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What’s next? Will Bitcoin break higher over the summer or form a trading range here?
Let’s dive into the technicals.
🧩 Higher Timeframe Structure
May–June Range:
BTC was stuck between $110K–$100K, forming an ABC corrective pattern. Using trend-based Fib extension (TBFE) from A–B–C:
✅ C wave completed at $98,922 (1.0 TBFE)
✅ Upside target hit at $122,137 (-1 TBFE)
Full Bull Market TBFE:
➡️ 1.0 → $107,301 → previously rejected
➡️ 1.272 → $123,158 → recent rejection zone
Pitchfork (log scale):
➡️ Tapped the upper resistance edge before rejecting.
Previous Bear Market Fib Extension:
➡️ 2.0 extension at $122,524 hit.
2018–2022 Cycle TBFE:
➡️ 1.618 at $122,011 tapped.
Macro Fibonacci Channel:
➡️ Connecting 2018 low ($3,782), 2021 ATH ($69K), 2022 low ($15,476) →
1.618–1.666 resistance band: $121K–$123.5K.
✅ Conclusion: Multiple fib confluences mark the $122K–$123K zone as critical resistance.
Daily Timeframe
➡️ FVG / Imbalance:
Big daily Fair Value Gap between the prior ATH and $115,222 swing low.
BTC broke the prior ATH (pATH) without retest → a pullback to this zone is likely.
Lower Timeframe / Short-Term Outlook
We likely saw a completed 5-wave impulse up → now correcting.
The -6% move was probably wave A, current bounce = wave B, next leg = wave C.
➡ Wave B short zone: $120K–$121K
➡ Wave C target (1.0 TBFE projection): ~$113,326
➡ Confluence at mid-FVG + nPOC
Trade Setups
🔴 Short Setup:
- Entry: $120,300–$121,000
- Stop: Above current ATH (~$123,300)
- Target: $113,500
- R:R ≈ 1:2.3
🟢 Long Setup:
- Entry: Between Prior ATH and $113,000
- Stop: Below anchored VWAP (~$110,500)
- Target: Higher, depending on bounce confirmation.
🧠 Educational Insight: Why Fibs Matter at Market Extremes
When markets push into new all-time highs, most classic support/resistance levels disappear — there’s simply no historical price action to lean on. That’s where Fibonacci extensions, channels, and projections become powerful tools.
Here’s why:
➡ Fibonacci extensions (like the 1.272, 1.618, 2.0) help estimate where trend exhaustion or profit-taking zones may appear. They are based on the psychology of crowd behavior, as traders anchor expectations to proportional moves from previous swings.
➡ Trend-Based Fib Extensions (TBFE) project potential reversal or continuation zones using not just price levels, but also the symmetry of prior wave moves.
➡ Fibonacci channels align trend angles across multiple market cycles, giving macro context — like how the 2018 low, 2021 ATH, and 2022 low project the current 1.618–1.666 resistance zone.
In short:
When you don’t have left-hand price history, you lean on right-hand geometry.
That’s why the $122K–123K zone wasn’t just random — it’s a convergence of multiple fib levels, cycle projections, and technical structures across timeframes.
⚡ Final Thoughts
Bitcoin faces major resistance around $122K–$123K backed by multiple fib and structural levels. A retest of the prior ATH zone (~$112K–$113K) looks probable before the next big directional move. Watch lower timeframe structure for signs of completion in this corrective phase.
_________________________________
💬 If you found this helpful, drop a like and comment!
Want breakdowns of other charts? Leave your requests below.
Note
🚨 Bitcoin UpdateBTC hit our short entry perfectly, rejecting off the 0.702 hidden sweet spot entry and then finding resistance at the 0.666 fib before selling off.
Currently, BTC is trading below dOpen and wOpen, which are now acting as resistance. We already saw a retest of pdOpen which worked well as a first TP zone. Next key target to watch is bpdOpen.
🎯 Short Trade Targets
The overall short target is around $113500, with strong confluence from:
➡️ 1.0 Trend-Based Fib Extension
➡️ 0.618 Fib Retracement
➡️ Negative Fib Extension TP
➡️ nPOC at $113517
➡️ Anchored VWAP near $113K
➡️ Daily FVG (Fair Value Gap), adding another layer of support + liquidity
💡Indicator Note
I’m using my new published indicator called "DriftLine - Pivot Open Zones [SiDec]" here you can use it for free to help identify support and resistance zones.
Weekend ahead so stay cautious, as lower liquidity can lead to more volatile or erratic moves.
Also keeping an eye on the $113.5K zone as a potential long setup if price shows a solid reaction.
Stay sharp and trade safe! 🚀
Note
🚨 BTC Update$120K remains the key resistance and BTC has been struggling to break through it for the past 14 days, forming a tight trading range between $120K and $115K.
➡️ We just saw a liquidity sweep of the swing low at $115.7K
➡️ Bears failed to follow through and bulls quickly reclaimed ground, pushing price back to the $120K resistance zone
➡️ The anchored VWAP from the $98.2K low sits currently at $113.65K, acting as major dynamic support
Now watching closely to see if BTC can finally break and hold above $120K or if we remain range-bound 👀
🏆 Mastering Fibonacci for precision trading
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🔹 Sharing high-probability trade setups
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
🏆 Mastering Fibonacci for precision trading
🔹 Sharing high-probability trade setups
⚡ Unlock the power of technical analysis!
🔹 Sharing high-probability trade setups
⚡ Unlock the power of technical analysis!
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.