This chart presents a potential repetition of Bitcoin’s 2024 price cycle (Jan 23 – Aug 5, 2024), projected to mirror itself from September 6, 2024 through Q3–Q4 2025. The hand-drawn arcs suggest a repeating pattern of rounded tops, distribution, correction, and potential accumulation zones. Key support levels are marked near $66,172 and $49,116, indicating where price may retrace before a potential bounce or deeper macro-driven selloff.
Technically, the chart hints at a large-scale cyclical structure—a classic market psychology pattern where prior cup-and-handle or double-top formations play out again on a broader timescale.
🌍 Global Context Overlay:
War & Geopolitical Tensions:
The ongoing risk of conflict escalation (e.g., Iran–Israel, Ukraine–Russia, and potential East Asian tensions) may lead to increased volatility in risk assets like crypto. Wars historically bring uncertainty, which may initially crash speculative markets but later fuel inflationary hedges like Bitcoin.
U.S. Elections (Nov 2024):
Political instability or leadership changes can impact Federal Reserve policy, regulation, and market sentiment, directly influencing BTC price direction post-election.
Recession Fears & Rate Cuts (2025):
With central banks expected to pivot towards rate cuts in 2025, liquidity could flow back into risk-on assets, possibly triggering the bounce scenario shown in the latter part of your drawing. If rate cuts come too late, however, a steeper correction into the $49K zone becomes more likely.
Global Debt Crisis & De-Dollarization:
Growing debt concerns and countries moving away from the USD may boost Bitcoin’s long-term appeal as a non-sovereign store of value, reinforcing the second rally illustrated in your sketch.
Technically, the chart hints at a large-scale cyclical structure—a classic market psychology pattern where prior cup-and-handle or double-top formations play out again on a broader timescale.
🌍 Global Context Overlay:
War & Geopolitical Tensions:
The ongoing risk of conflict escalation (e.g., Iran–Israel, Ukraine–Russia, and potential East Asian tensions) may lead to increased volatility in risk assets like crypto. Wars historically bring uncertainty, which may initially crash speculative markets but later fuel inflationary hedges like Bitcoin.
U.S. Elections (Nov 2024):
Political instability or leadership changes can impact Federal Reserve policy, regulation, and market sentiment, directly influencing BTC price direction post-election.
Recession Fears & Rate Cuts (2025):
With central banks expected to pivot towards rate cuts in 2025, liquidity could flow back into risk-on assets, possibly triggering the bounce scenario shown in the latter part of your drawing. If rate cuts come too late, however, a steeper correction into the $49K zone becomes more likely.
Global Debt Crisis & De-Dollarization:
Growing debt concerns and countries moving away from the USD may boost Bitcoin’s long-term appeal as a non-sovereign store of value, reinforcing the second rally illustrated in your sketch.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.