Bitcoin / TetherUS
Updated

Next Volatility Period: Around March 4th (March 3rd-5th)

310

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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
snapshot
Since the RSI indicator has fallen below 30, if the price maintains or rises at the current position, the HA-Low indicator is expected to be generated.

Therefore, the key is whether it can be supported near the Fibonacci ratio point of 2.24 (83646.12).

In order to turn upward, it must rise above the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart.

However, in order for a full-scale uptrend to begin, the price must rise above the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart and be maintained.

In this regard, I think that the Fibonacci ratio range of 2.618 (87814.27) ~ 1.618 (89050.0) is an important support and resistance range.

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The fact that the HA-Low indicator was created means that it has escaped the low range, so it can be used as a basis for creating a trading strategy.

However, if it falls without support near the HA-Low indicator, there is a possibility of a stepwise downtrend, so you should think about a countermeasure for this.

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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.

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- ​​Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.

(BTCUSD 12M chart)
snapshot
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been following a pattern since 2015.

In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market.

Accordingly, the bull market is expected to continue until 2025.

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(LOG chart)
snapshot
Looking at the LOG chart, we can see that the increase is decreasing.

Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.

Therefore, we do not expect to see prices below 44K-48K in the future.

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snapshot
The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.

That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.

The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.

Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.

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No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.

It is up to you how to view and respond to it.

Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.

However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support and resistance role.

The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci.

Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies.

1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15

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Note
#BTCUSDT
snapshot
The price is being pulled up and is showing an upward trend near the Fibonacci ratio of 2.24 (83646.12).

In order to turn into an upward trend, it must rise above the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart, so I think this rebound is forming a bottom and there are some ambiguous parts to see.

In order to form a bottom section, the HA-Low indicator must be created and supported in the vicinity.

If not, it is judged that it will end as a rebound and fall again.

Since the RSI indicator corresponding to the current HA-Low indicator has fallen below 30, if it is supported or moves sideways near the current price, it seems likely that the HA-Low indicator will be created.

If it fails to rise above the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart, it is likely that it will eventually meet the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, so we need to think about how to respond to that.

Therefore, we will look at the next volatility period around March 4th (March 3rd-5th) to see if the price maintains above the current price position and the HA-Low indicator is generated.
Note
#BTCUSD
To check the overall trading volume distribution of BTC, we used the INDEX chart provided by TradingView.

(1M)
snapshot
The important point on the 1M chart is near the HA-High indicator.

(1W)
snapshot
In order to turn into an uptrend, it must rise above the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart.

A full-fledged uptrend is expected to begin when it receives support above the HA-High indicator.

(1D)
snapshot
The current price position corresponds to a section where support and resistance points have not been formed.

Therefore, it can be seen as a section where there is a high possibility of rising or falling at any time.

Therefore, the key is whether the HA-Low indicator can be newly created.

In order to do that, we need to see if the price can be maintained within the lower line of the Price Channel indicator.

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I think it is better to show a sideways movement for now rather than moving up and down.

It would be good if a 'V'-shaped rebound came out as a way to change the trend, but I think it would be difficult to continue the upward trend because more funds would be needed in that case.

Therefore, unless there is a special issue, I think a sideways movement is the best movement for now.

In particular, since the current price position is in a sharp rise section, it can be seen that a volume profile has not been formed.

In this regard, I think it is a good flow to form a sideways section by forming a volume profile.

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snapshot
snapshot
USDC showed a gap up.
Trade active
#BTCUSDT
snapshot
The HA-Low indicator is finally showing signs of being newly created.

If the HA-Low indicator is created at the 89294.25 point, the key is whether there is support around this area.

If there is no support near the HA-Low indicator, there is a possibility of a step-down trend, so you should also consider a response plan for this.

Based on the current price position, if it falls, it is likely to eventually meet the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
Note
#BTCUSDT
snapshot
It is important whether the HA-Low indicator is generated at the 89294.25 point.

To do that, the key is whether the price can be maintained above 84349.94.

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