Macro
Polymarket became infamous during the last US election where it absolutely nailed the result and proved to be way more accurate than the actual polls.
Why is Polymarket so accurate? Probably down to the possibility of losing money. You're less likely to lie if it would cost you basically.
Whats weird is that they have a current bet available; 'Will QT* end by May', which has over $6m staked with 100% of bettors thinking that QT will end by May.
That's a bet thats probably attractive to a certain type of gambler, probably one who has a good handle on the markets, maybe someone who works on Wall Street or in a Bank and knows what his analysts are really expecting (and not just what they tell us!).
Remember the question is 'will QT end by May?' and the response so far (from people laying down real money) is 100% yes.
Well there is no FED rate decision in April so if we are going to get an end to QT before May, it's starting today.
Given the recent good inflation data, weakening job market, weakening consumer sentiment and looming threat of recession it's inevitable that the FED have to at least start talking about quantative easing, which is bullish for BTC.
Technicals
Short term we are just consolidating within a clear range. Overhead resistance is at $84.5k, support is at $81.5k.
Long term he chart is forming a large bullish falling wedge, a bullish pattern but not one that is indicating an immediate breakout.
This pattern could easily play out for another couple of weeks and breakout alongside the Money Supply (my M2 Money supply two week to breakout theory is explained here - tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/h4s0maDQ-BTC-USDT-2-Weeks-To-Pump/).
The daily RSI is moving up from a bullish divergence and is using its 20 Day EMA as support suggesting a cross into bullish (over 50) territory is incoming.
So bullish chart pattern and bullish-ish RSI, however the 20 Day Moving Average is now below the 200 Day Moving Average which is a sell trigger to alot of algos.
Mixed technicals are not really surprising given the state of the market. Ultimately the Macro is completely driving the market. The FED decision later will drive the next weeks price action.
*Quantative Tightening = FED restricting liquidity via its balance sheet and interest rates
Polymarket became infamous during the last US election where it absolutely nailed the result and proved to be way more accurate than the actual polls.
Why is Polymarket so accurate? Probably down to the possibility of losing money. You're less likely to lie if it would cost you basically.
Whats weird is that they have a current bet available; 'Will QT* end by May', which has over $6m staked with 100% of bettors thinking that QT will end by May.
That's a bet thats probably attractive to a certain type of gambler, probably one who has a good handle on the markets, maybe someone who works on Wall Street or in a Bank and knows what his analysts are really expecting (and not just what they tell us!).
Remember the question is 'will QT end by May?' and the response so far (from people laying down real money) is 100% yes.
Well there is no FED rate decision in April so if we are going to get an end to QT before May, it's starting today.
Given the recent good inflation data, weakening job market, weakening consumer sentiment and looming threat of recession it's inevitable that the FED have to at least start talking about quantative easing, which is bullish for BTC.
Technicals
Short term we are just consolidating within a clear range. Overhead resistance is at $84.5k, support is at $81.5k.
Long term he chart is forming a large bullish falling wedge, a bullish pattern but not one that is indicating an immediate breakout.
This pattern could easily play out for another couple of weeks and breakout alongside the Money Supply (my M2 Money supply two week to breakout theory is explained here - tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/h4s0maDQ-BTC-USDT-2-Weeks-To-Pump/).
The daily RSI is moving up from a bullish divergence and is using its 20 Day EMA as support suggesting a cross into bullish (over 50) territory is incoming.
So bullish chart pattern and bullish-ish RSI, however the 20 Day Moving Average is now below the 200 Day Moving Average which is a sell trigger to alot of algos.
Mixed technicals are not really surprising given the state of the market. Ultimately the Macro is completely driving the market. The FED decision later will drive the next weeks price action.
*Quantative Tightening = FED restricting liquidity via its balance sheet and interest rates
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.