If $38k is surpassed within November, then there's a good chance we could see a return to $50k within 2023. If November fails to break that level, instead facing rejection around $36.5 and failing to go higher for that 1M candle, then $50k will probably be a 2024 thing.
If it's a 2024 thing, then it will either be immediate or roughly halfway through the year.
Also, if it's a 2024 thing, then 2023 could finish around $27k.
If it happens in 2023, then be prepared for 2024 to retest all of those gains after briefly tiptoeing around $51k.
The retest that follows any return to $50k could easily go as low as $16k again, though the speed is hard to predict. Could be quickly and all within a month, could take the entire year as investor interest bleeds out.