A 50 day and 200 day simple moving averages analysis also supports the hypothesis that the market will start a real recovery in a few weeks/month (thread):
- Every time 50 day MA crossed 200 day MA to the downside (aka "death" cross), market was already crashing.
- Last time 50 day MA crossed 200 day MA to the upside ("golden" cross) it only took a few days before the market started another uptrend
- More closely, last July there was a -30% drop from the "death" cross to the bottom and a 50% hike after golden cross.
If 33K was the current bottom and history repeated itself, we could see #bitcoin going to
65K the end of June/July. Now before you get too bullish and start screaming "to the moon!" to your neighbour on his face...
- History does not repeat itself, but yes, certain probability patterns exist
- We're currently in a macro geopolitical situation that is not the best to create another bull cycle
- I still think global markets will probably have another drop before starting a real recovery.
- Also, Open Interest is still high (remember this?) at 11.7B. I started talking about this back by the end of December 2021 and you can find all about this metric just doing an advance search for "Open Interest" in my account: bit.ly/36Llih6
So, are we going UP or DOWN?
I think we're going down (short term/days/weeks/month) and then up (starting last week of April), but I'm not a genius or a magician. Nobody really knows what the market will do.
You have to accept that in terms of analysis it's a matter of variables and possibilities, not certainties. If we only had certainties, everyone would be millionaires.
Set alerts on key indicators and stronger price levels and relax. You can find them all in my timeline.
Enjoy.
- Every time 50 day MA crossed 200 day MA to the downside (aka "death" cross), market was already crashing.
- Last time 50 day MA crossed 200 day MA to the upside ("golden" cross) it only took a few days before the market started another uptrend
- More closely, last July there was a -30% drop from the "death" cross to the bottom and a 50% hike after golden cross.
If 33K was the current bottom and history repeated itself, we could see #bitcoin going to
65K the end of June/July. Now before you get too bullish and start screaming "to the moon!" to your neighbour on his face...- History does not repeat itself, but yes, certain probability patterns exist
- We're currently in a macro geopolitical situation that is not the best to create another bull cycle
- I still think global markets will probably have another drop before starting a real recovery.
- Also, Open Interest is still high (remember this?) at 11.7B. I started talking about this back by the end of December 2021 and you can find all about this metric just doing an advance search for "Open Interest" in my account: bit.ly/36Llih6
So, are we going UP or DOWN?
I think we're going down (short term/days/weeks/month) and then up (starting last week of April), but I'm not a genius or a magician. Nobody really knows what the market will do.
You have to accept that in terms of analysis it's a matter of variables and possibilities, not certainties. If we only had certainties, everyone would be millionaires.
Set alerts on key indicators and stronger price levels and relax. You can find them all in my timeline.
Enjoy.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.