Technicals
M2 Money Supply
Researcher Lyn Alden confirmed what alot of people already knew in September 2024, when she published a report showing that Bitcoin is strongly positively correlated with global money supply.
Her paper concluded that BTC follows money supply 83% of the time and as a firmly risk on asset this makes sense, the more money there is to invest, the more invests in bitcoin.
Not sure I can post a link, but if you google Lyn Alden M2 you'll find the report.
On 13th January with global inflation cooling and international interest rates starting to fall the M2 Global Supply Index started to increase rapidly.
Why then with with the M2 Global Money supply in a steep uptrend is BTC in decline?
Well by overlaying the M2 Money supply on the BTC chart we can see that there recently seems to be a pattern with how BTC tracks M2.
From the starting point of an M2 reversal it looks like BTC follows with around an 11 week delay. Once BTC starts following M2 it seems to take the same amount of weeks from the start of the move to its peak that the M2 index took.
If this pattern holds we are around 2 weeks from a potential uptick in BTC.
CME Gap
The March 14th gap filled yesterday evening, the March 7th gap remains unfilled. I think we'll need the pre-FOMC volatility to close this out.
M2 Money Supply
Researcher Lyn Alden confirmed what alot of people already knew in September 2024, when she published a report showing that Bitcoin is strongly positively correlated with global money supply.
Her paper concluded that BTC follows money supply 83% of the time and as a firmly risk on asset this makes sense, the more money there is to invest, the more invests in bitcoin.
Not sure I can post a link, but if you google Lyn Alden M2 you'll find the report.
On 13th January with global inflation cooling and international interest rates starting to fall the M2 Global Supply Index started to increase rapidly.
Why then with with the M2 Global Money supply in a steep uptrend is BTC in decline?
Well by overlaying the M2 Money supply on the BTC chart we can see that there recently seems to be a pattern with how BTC tracks M2.
From the starting point of an M2 reversal it looks like BTC follows with around an 11 week delay. Once BTC starts following M2 it seems to take the same amount of weeks from the start of the move to its peak that the M2 index took.
If this pattern holds we are around 2 weeks from a potential uptick in BTC.
CME Gap
The March 14th gap filled yesterday evening, the March 7th gap remains unfilled. I think we'll need the pre-FOMC volatility to close this out.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.