Long

BTC (Prj.2019.P04.E03).MicroLevel.Target

Updated

It looks like there is confluence with C and H with Macro Level pattern and its upper limit resistance.

I also have a gut feeling that this could be the one that breaks out of the Macro formation that we have been stuck in for months.
I will reserve that judgement when we get there and what happens in that area of resistance and for how long.

Close up

Previous post for the macro level - all the confluence observations

BTC (Prj.2019.P04.E02).Medium.Macro Level.Hypothesis

Weekly chart and 20 EMA relevance

3 DAY Char and the Moving Average deviation indicator relevance

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Key level's to watch...expect some sell offs at these levels and whats required is to look for BEARISH Divergence or bearish patterns on the lower time scales (between 30min to 2 hrs).

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Apologies,
Note, the above chart blue lines are not to be interpreted for a down trend or drop to the newer lows. Its just to indicated a sell off.
Also to note, if we have BEARISH div. at the 4 hrly or Daily level, then be prepared for newer lows.

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or more possibilities.... who knows?

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How are we tracking ...lets look at the macro and micro.
Macro level on the daily has 12 hrs to go and is critical here to see a green candlestick. What started of strong and to many a surprise as to how easy it broke the 10k range resistance. A declining RSI is also a bearish pattern on the daily chart. We need to see this pass the 63% but as you can see, its following a downward pattern.
On the 4 hrly we are now consolidating above what was resistance, and its holding, meaning its a bullish sign. For now we have no clarity as its a ranging price, with wicks all over the place. So the 10900 next target is reachable but how it will get there will determine the rest. If it takes too long and breaks out of this bullish pattern (1 HRLY chart) in a negative way, we won't see the 10500 support hold.
My gut feeling says we have indecisiveness and hence my exit points (stop loss) are close and I'm prepared to cash in a lot of my $$ and wait and jump in if necessary later.

Daily chart:

4 HRLY Chart:

1 HHRL Chart:

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4 HRLY chart:

1 HRLY chart, look at RSI pattern

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I important to plan ahead withed out scenarios so when certain events happen, you implement the plan.
As it seems, my selling price or target was between 10800 and 10900. So I place an order to short here. Waking up this morning, I see this huge wick hitting 10900, hence did well.
Were from here.
The chart was ranging between 10500 (defended) to 10600. Now it dropping and needs to be defended, otherwise its going to range between 10400 and 10500. If this does not get a reaction, then it will plummet like the previous strong run (august 15 to 20) and disappointedly fall short of the main target. I have a feeling its going to do this.

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correction for the 1st sentence above. I should have check it before hitting update

It important to plan ahead with a few scenarios so when certain events\scenario happen, you implement the plan.

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At times like this, to have a move to the upside requires a catalyst, an ignition and that is a drop. What will this drop price range be is the $$ maker. I have set my price based on the above chart, do you know what that catalyst\ignition price be?

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A word of caution: The drop down catalyst price cannot be a slow descending move, it must be a drop. If its a slow descending move, cancel the stop limit buy and re-assess the chart.

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Sometimes its worth watching the 5 min chart to see what the buildup looks like

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Above chart equates to this. Hence if this support fails, it will plummet or slowly descend.

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I knew there was a possibility but I also went with the rest of the global market of today, gold is down, most stocks are down...so I thought BTC will likely follow. I was wrong. Hence missed a buying opportunity. But like my strategy, I hold a portion to go longer which is 10900. When it reaches this, a .238 pullback, and side ways I expect....the possibly rally to the next target 11150. I will wait and see.

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ssari

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