The key is whether it can rise to the second resistance zone

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#BTCUSDT 1W

It has risen by more than 64% and is showing resistance around the 43823.59 point for the fourth week.

Accordingly, if this week's candle fails to close higher than 43823.59, there is a possibility of a downward trend.

Looking at the 1W chart, the transition to a downtrend is expected to occur when the price falls below 37253.81-38531.90.

Until then, it is expected that price adjustments will create a pull back pattern.

Therefore, the key is whether it can rise to the 45135.66-46431.5 range.

(1D)

It rose to the psychological resistance range of 43160.0-43823.59.

Accordingly, the key is whether it can receive support and rise in the 43160.0-43823.59 range.

If it fails to rise and falls below 41350.0, it is highly likely that it will turn into a short-term downtrend, so a countermeasure is needed.

However, as I mentioned in the explanation of the 1W chart, there is a high possibility of creating a pull back pattern above the 37253.81-38531.90 range, so we need to consider this and create a response strategy.

If it rises beyond the second resistance range of 44200.0-47600.0, the next resistance range is 53256.64-45150.01.

Accordingly, it is necessary to check whether it can rise above the secondary resistance zone between around January 1st and around January 5th, which is the period of small volatility, and around January 16th, which is the main volatility period.

If it is to fall, a sharp drop must necessarily occur.

If a sharp drop occurs, it is likely to touch around 32917.17-34110.32.

If that happens, it is expected to quickly rise to around 37253.81-38531.90, so it is expected to be a time for aggressive buying.

Have a good time.
thank you

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- The big picture

The full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K.

This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.

#BTCUSD 12M

1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 13401.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15

These are points that are likely to encounter resistance in the future.
We need to see if we can break through these points upward.

Since it is thought that a new trend can be created in the overshooting area, you should check the movement when this area is touched.

If the general upward trend continues until 2025, it is expected to rise to around 57014.33 and then create a pull back pattern.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55

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** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.

** Trading volume is displayed as a candle body based on 10EMA.
How to display (in order from darkest to darkest)
More than 3 times the trading volume of 10EMA > 2.5 times > 2.0 times > 1.25 times > Trading volume below 10EMA

** Even if you know other people’s know-how, it takes a considerable amount of time to make it your own.

** This chart was created using my know-how.

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Note

#BTC.D 1D

BTC dominance is rising.

However, since BTC is rising for the first time after sideways, altcoins may follow BTC's rise.

However, if BTC continues to rise and BTC dominance shows a simultaneous rise, it is highly likely that altcoins will gradually sideways or decline.

Therefore, you should be careful about setting stop loss when trading altcoins.

For an altcoin bull market to begin, it is expected that BTC dominance must fall below 50.

There are altcoins that are currently maintaining an upward trend, but the altcoin bull market I am talking about means a bull market in which everyone can make a profit no matter which altcoin they purchase.

Note

#BTCUSDT 1D

Among the second resistance sections, the 45135.66 point was touched.

Accordingly, if it falls below the 43160.0-43823.59 range, split selling or stop loss is required.

We need to check whether the price can be maintained in the secondary resistance zone even after this volatility period, around January 1st to January 5th.

This period of volatility will be around January 16th.

Note

Since you have entered an important section, you must carefully select the stop loss point accordingly and be prepared to respond in case of a decline in the important section.

I don't think it's a good idea to set the stop loss to 100% selling.

Since the coin market is facing an important issue (BTC halving), a trading strategy is needed to somehow increase the number of coins (tokens) held.

Therefore, even if it falls below the stop loss, you must sell in installments of less than 50% and react according to future movements.

If 100% is sold, it is very difficult to re-enter, so careful response is required for coins (tokens) that will be held until the BTC halving.

According to the analysis of the 12M chart, it is necessary to secure a certain amount of cash to lower the average purchase price or increase the number of coins held in the pull back pattern that is expected to appear in the future.

Please consider the basic trading method of buying when the price falls and selling when the price rises and create a good response strategy.

Note

#BTCUSDT 1D

Looking at the Renko chart, it shows an upward breakout of the first support and resistance areas.

Since the candle has not been confirmed yet, you need to check whether the candle is definitely created.

If the price rises above the first support and resistance zone and maintains the price, it is expected that there will be an upward trend to enter the second support and resistance zone.

I think the Renko chart is a good chart to utilize trends, support and resistance points, etc. because it reduces movements caused by fakes or whipsaws.

Note

#BTCUSDT.P 1h

You need to check in which direction there is movement away from the 44850.0-45163.4 section.

If it falls below 44850.0, it is expected to fall around 43993.4-44484.0.

If it rises above 45163.4, the key is whether it can rise above the 45490.5-45724.9 range.

Since the BW indicator is located near point 0, you can see that it is currently in a sideways section.

(BW indicator is an indicator that integrates MACD, StochRSI, CCI, Suppertrend, and PVT indicators.)

Note

#USDC 1D

These days, I think the movement of funds through USDC is quite active.

It remains to be seen whether such fund movements can lead to an upward trend in USDC.

Note

#BTCUSDT 1D

It is showing a decline below the 43160.0-43823.59 range.

Therefore, we need to check whether it can quickly rise above the 43160.0-43823.59 range.

If not, a stop loss is required.

This volatility period is from around January 1st to January 5th, and the fluctuation range is in the range of 41350.0-46431.50.

If it falls more than -10%, it is time to buy aggressively.

Note

#BTCUSDT.P 1D

On the futures chart, it is around January 4 (January 3-5).

Accordingly, we must pay attention to volatility.

The psychological resistance zone on the futures chart is around 43993.4.

Note

This is a period of volatility, so we don't know yet how things will progress.

I think the period of full-scale volatility will be around January 16th.

I think the trend that formed at that time is important.

Note

#USDT 1D

#USDC 1D

You can see that USDT and USDC have volatility in opposite directions.

It appears that USDC was sold and USDT was purchased.

USDT and USDC serve as a conduit for moving funds into the coin market.

However, USDT supports the USDT market on exchanges around the world, so all coins (tokens) can be traded with USDT.

So, USDT's influence can be seen as powerful.

Since the USDC market has fewer trading pairs than the USDT market, USDC's influence can only be short-term.

Therefore, in order for the coin market to show a true downward trend, I think USDT must begin to gap down.

Note

Although it touched below the MS-Signal indicator, it is only in a sideways state because the Price Channel indicator is contracted.

Note

#USDT 1D

It appears that USDT will see a gap increase.

Since the Market Cap chart is formed through comprehensive aggregation, when rapid volatility occurs, it seems that it takes about 1-2 days for a proper candle to be formed.

However, the fact that the gap has increased is expected to remain unchanged.

What this means is that more money is flowing into the coin market during this drop.

Therefore, I think it is likely that the decline will not be enough to stop the FOMO formed in the coin market.

However, since the full-scale volatility period is around January 16th, it is necessary to check what kind of movement is shown after the movement around January 1st to 5th, which is the period of volatility.

Note

#BTCUSDT.P 1D

On futures charts, the period around January 4 (January 3-5) is a volatile period.

Since it is currently located near the MS-Signal indicator, we need to check whether it can rise above the MS-Signal indicator.

Currently, it has re-entered the 41816.3-43848.5 section and continues to move sideways.

Therefore, you need to check which section it deviates from this section.

If it falls below 39846.8,
1st: 37244.4-38641.1
2nd: 32853.8-34135.3
You need to check if you receive support near the first and second levels above.

If it is supported and rises near the first and second levels, it is expected to show an upward trend to rise above 46429.3.

#BTCUSDT 1D

This period of volatility is around January 1st - 5th.

Accordingly, the volatility period is up to December 31 - January 6.

The fluctuation range at this time is 41350.0-46431.50.

However, since it rose above 45135.66 and then fell, if it does not rise beyond the 43160.0-43823.59 range, a stop loss is necessary.

This is because the 43160.0-43823.59 section is a psychological resistance zone.

Note

#BTCUSDT 1D

It is not suitable for real-time trading with Renko charts.

The reason is that candles are created in blocks, so their movement is slow.

However, I think it is a good chart for reducing fakes and whipsaws in charts and confirming trends and support and resistance points.

There is a lot of volatility on the candle chart, but there is no change on the Renko chart.

However, the previous increase beyond the first box section has disappeared.

There is no change in trading strategy as the trend is maintaining the existing trend.

Reacting too sensitively to things that fall when things fall and things that rise when things rise will only amplify your psychological burden.

You need to make a rough outline of the big picture trading strategy (1. investment period, 2. investment size) and respond by revising the detailed trading strategy (3. trading method and profit realization method) within that scope.

To do so, it is recommended to check the big picture, such as the movement of the 1M and 1W candle charts or the Renko chart.

Note

#BTCUSDT 4h

If the M-Signal indicator and the 5EMA indicator on the 1D chart do not rise when they intersect, there is a possibility that it will fall.

If it succeeds in rising, it is expected to rise above 43823.59.

If it falls, the key is whether it falls below 39845.44.

Note

#BTCUSDT.P 1h

It is breaking above the 5EMA on the 1D chart and showing an upward trend above 43993.4.

Accordingly, if it does not fall below the 5EMA on the 1D chart, it is expected to rise to around 45163.4.

If it falls below 43477.9 and shows resistance, or falls below the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, it may lead to a further decline, so you should also think about a response plan.

#BTCUSDT 1D

It shows an upward trend above the 43160.0-43823.59 range.

Accordingly, if it falls below the 43160.0-43823.59 range, a stop loss is required.

Note

#BTCUSDT.P 1D

The volatility period on the futures charts runs until January 5th.

Therefore, as we go through this period of volatility, we need to check where we find support or resistance.

#BTCUSDT 1W

I think there was the first attempt to enter the high point by touching above 43823.59 on the candle created on December 4th.

After that, it appears that the candle will finally close above 43823.59 this week.

This allows us to begin our first support test.

Volatility is expected to occur around the circled area, i.e. the intersection of the 46431.5 point and the uptrend line.

Accordingly, the volatility period for the 1W chart is around January 8-22.

However, the volatility period on the 1W chart is not often used because the range is too wide.

For now, it is important to note that a support test will begin at the 43823.59 point on the 1W chart.

(1D)

As BTC continues to rise, funds continue to flow into the coin market through USDT or USDC.

Accordingly, the section that was originally expected to receive the greatest resistance in this uptrend was the secondary resistance section.

Therefore, there has been a lot of talk about the possibility of price adjustment or a downward trend if the price fails to rise above the secondary resistance zone and shows resistance below 43160.0-43823.59.

However, looking at the current movement of funds, the possibility of rising beyond the second resistance zone is increasing because the phenomenon of funds continuing to flow into the coin market is not stopping.

I think you will understand this movement by looking at the idea titled “The key is whether the four-year cycle pattern can be continued.”

On the spot chart, we are in a period of volatility until January 6th.

The next period of volatility will be around January 16th.

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