Bitcoin is in a MAJOR BEAR MARKET... oh wait look at technical
Updated
LOTS of FUD and shouting about a bear market. Some Alts are down 70% in the last few weeks! A combination of an ultra-strong dollar + stock market pull back remains the main driver for this price action but nothing has changed for our big boy bitcoin and so probability STILL heavily favours bullish extraction of the 30k-65k range.
Bitcoin has been sat in a range (price oscillating between two price areas) since January 2021 (Range boundaries noted on the chart). This is not opinion, this is a technical fact. A bear market is when we TREND bearish (price oscillating downwards, making dramatically higher lows and lower highs). While on the 4h and the daily it may look terrible, pull out to the weekly. What do you see? Technically speaking that looks pretty nice for a bullish argument - a higher high above January 2021 65k high and a potential higher low above the June/July 2021 30k low.
While we still have not confirmed this higher low don't lose sight of this wider picture - you are investing to grow wealth which requires time and patience so let go of the 'get rich quick' attitude that the pre-January 2021 market installed in you.
On top of this technical bullish picture, considering how harsh the stock market pullback has been AND how ultra-strong the dollar has been I will emphasise this again - NOTHING has changed. Even with these major external catalysts, and an absolute onslaught on Bitcoin, it remains above the 37k support and the major support of 30k. A break of 37k is a warning sign, while a break of 30k heavily undermines the bullish extraction of this range and then we can start talking about a bear market. A reactivation of bullish price action should see price regain to the 51k-56k area where we will be looking very carefully for bearish pressure to regain control at which point a typical bitcoin crash (as this would be the dead cat bounce) would be technically possible (although still nowhere near as probable as price extracting itself from this range to the upside).
But let me just say this ONE MORE TIME - NOTHING HAS CHANGED - Even with the worst world economic news and stock market FUD Bitcoin remains above 37k so what would happen if the wider market slows down or the dollar hesitates or weakens?
Probability still heavily favours bullish price action. What we are seeing here is the beginnings of the K shape recovery (something we are witnessing in the wider market - like who has heard anything about Pelaton [down 89%] or ZOOM [down 85%]) since the start of 2021? The run from 3k-60k for Bitcoin was accompanied by insanely dumb/overvalued random coins (lol dodge coin like wtf?) gaining billions in an easy money post-covid environment (just like the wider market). With money getting tighter, rates rising and macro-economic factors worsening, the speculative risk-on environment has transitioned to a value-focused risk-off environment. In this environment, good projects (ETH/BTC) that have inbuilt value will regain due to their strong fundamentals while the crappy random-ass unproven projects with no value will continue to fall.
That's survival of the fittest! And that's why probability still heavily favours bullishness from our big boy papa bitcoin.
P.
Bitcoin has been sat in a range (price oscillating between two price areas) since January 2021 (Range boundaries noted on the chart). This is not opinion, this is a technical fact. A bear market is when we TREND bearish (price oscillating downwards, making dramatically higher lows and lower highs). While on the 4h and the daily it may look terrible, pull out to the weekly. What do you see? Technically speaking that looks pretty nice for a bullish argument - a higher high above January 2021 65k high and a potential higher low above the June/July 2021 30k low.
While we still have not confirmed this higher low don't lose sight of this wider picture - you are investing to grow wealth which requires time and patience so let go of the 'get rich quick' attitude that the pre-January 2021 market installed in you.
On top of this technical bullish picture, considering how harsh the stock market pullback has been AND how ultra-strong the dollar has been I will emphasise this again - NOTHING has changed. Even with these major external catalysts, and an absolute onslaught on Bitcoin, it remains above the 37k support and the major support of 30k. A break of 37k is a warning sign, while a break of 30k heavily undermines the bullish extraction of this range and then we can start talking about a bear market. A reactivation of bullish price action should see price regain to the 51k-56k area where we will be looking very carefully for bearish pressure to regain control at which point a typical bitcoin crash (as this would be the dead cat bounce) would be technically possible (although still nowhere near as probable as price extracting itself from this range to the upside).
But let me just say this ONE MORE TIME - NOTHING HAS CHANGED - Even with the worst world economic news and stock market FUD Bitcoin remains above 37k so what would happen if the wider market slows down or the dollar hesitates or weakens?
Probability still heavily favours bullish price action. What we are seeing here is the beginnings of the K shape recovery (something we are witnessing in the wider market - like who has heard anything about Pelaton [down 89%] or ZOOM [down 85%]) since the start of 2021? The run from 3k-60k for Bitcoin was accompanied by insanely dumb/overvalued random coins (lol dodge coin like wtf?) gaining billions in an easy money post-covid environment (just like the wider market). With money getting tighter, rates rising and macro-economic factors worsening, the speculative risk-on environment has transitioned to a value-focused risk-off environment. In this environment, good projects (ETH/BTC) that have inbuilt value will regain due to their strong fundamentals while the crappy random-ass unproven projects with no value will continue to fall.
That's survival of the fittest! And that's why probability still heavily favours bullishness from our big boy papa bitcoin.
P.
Note
Update found in my latest idea following this mad crash - I will post another one closer to the weekly close.
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