Market Structure & Key Levels:
Current Price & Trend:
Bitcoin is trading at $97,511, showing signs of consolidation after a strong rally.
The price is currently oscillating between the R1 trendline (support turned resistance) and a key horizontal support level near $86,359.
Support & Resistance Levels:
S1 ($86,359): A critical demand zone where previous accumulation occurred.
R1 (Local Resistance): The lower boundary of the ascending channel, which has flipped into resistance.
R2 ($110,392): A major resistance level; breaking this confirms a continuation toward new highs.
R3 (Upper Channel Resistance): Marks the upper limit of Bitcoin’s bullish structure, a potential future target.
Historical High & Low:
All-Time High: $109,588 (recent major peak)
Strongest Historical Support: $49,000 (unlikely but critical in case of a severe breakdown)
Technical Indicators & Market Sentiment:
🔹 Trendline Analysis:
Bitcoin is still inside the macro bullish channel, but price action is weakening near local resistance.
The price has formed lower highs, signaling potential exhaustion unless volume increases.
🔹 Potential Breakout Scenario:
If BTC breaks above $100,000, the next resistance will be at $110,392.
Beyond $110,000, BTC could target $125,000-$130,000 based on Fibonacci extensions.
🔹 Potential Breakdown Scenario:
A breakdown below $97,000 increases the likelihood of testing $86,359 (S1).
A further break below $86,000 may result in a sharper decline toward the $75,000-$80,000 zone.
🔹 Liquidity & Volume:
Decreasing volume near resistance suggests weakening bullish momentum.
A confirmed bullish breakout requires high volume and strong closing candles above key resistance levels.
🔹 Market Psychology:
The market remains in an accumulation-distribution phase, where large players are managing liquidity before a decisive move.
The current price action suggests that a correction is possible before a new rally.
Conclusion & Strategy:
Given the current structure, I am preparing for two key scenarios:
1️⃣ Bullish Breakout:
If Bitcoin closes above $100,000 with strong volume, I will enter a long position targeting $110,000-$115,000.
A breakout above $110,000 opens the door for a rally toward $125,000-$130,000.
2️⃣ Bearish Pullback:
If BTC loses $97,000, I will consider reducing exposure or shorting towards $86,000.
A breakdown of $86,000 could trigger a deeper correction to $75,000-$80,000.
Risk Management:
Stop-loss for longs: Below $96,000 to avoid fake breakouts.
Stop-loss for shorts: Above $100,500 to protect against trend reversals.
Leverage strategy: Conservative, considering high volatility.
With these levels in mind, I am prepared to adapt based on Bitcoin’s reaction to its key support and resistance zones. The next few days will be crucial in determining whether BTC resumes its uptrend or enters a deeper correction phase.
Final Thought:
Bitcoin remains bullish in the long term, but the short-term structure suggests potential for either a continuation rally or retracement to lower supports before resuming its upward trajectory. I will monitor volume and key price action signals to determine the best trade entry.
Current Price & Trend:
Bitcoin is trading at $97,511, showing signs of consolidation after a strong rally.
The price is currently oscillating between the R1 trendline (support turned resistance) and a key horizontal support level near $86,359.
Support & Resistance Levels:
S1 ($86,359): A critical demand zone where previous accumulation occurred.
R1 (Local Resistance): The lower boundary of the ascending channel, which has flipped into resistance.
R2 ($110,392): A major resistance level; breaking this confirms a continuation toward new highs.
R3 (Upper Channel Resistance): Marks the upper limit of Bitcoin’s bullish structure, a potential future target.
Historical High & Low:
All-Time High: $109,588 (recent major peak)
Strongest Historical Support: $49,000 (unlikely but critical in case of a severe breakdown)
Technical Indicators & Market Sentiment:
🔹 Trendline Analysis:
Bitcoin is still inside the macro bullish channel, but price action is weakening near local resistance.
The price has formed lower highs, signaling potential exhaustion unless volume increases.
🔹 Potential Breakout Scenario:
If BTC breaks above $100,000, the next resistance will be at $110,392.
Beyond $110,000, BTC could target $125,000-$130,000 based on Fibonacci extensions.
🔹 Potential Breakdown Scenario:
A breakdown below $97,000 increases the likelihood of testing $86,359 (S1).
A further break below $86,000 may result in a sharper decline toward the $75,000-$80,000 zone.
🔹 Liquidity & Volume:
Decreasing volume near resistance suggests weakening bullish momentum.
A confirmed bullish breakout requires high volume and strong closing candles above key resistance levels.
🔹 Market Psychology:
The market remains in an accumulation-distribution phase, where large players are managing liquidity before a decisive move.
The current price action suggests that a correction is possible before a new rally.
Conclusion & Strategy:
Given the current structure, I am preparing for two key scenarios:
1️⃣ Bullish Breakout:
If Bitcoin closes above $100,000 with strong volume, I will enter a long position targeting $110,000-$115,000.
A breakout above $110,000 opens the door for a rally toward $125,000-$130,000.
2️⃣ Bearish Pullback:
If BTC loses $97,000, I will consider reducing exposure or shorting towards $86,000.
A breakdown of $86,000 could trigger a deeper correction to $75,000-$80,000.
Risk Management:
Stop-loss for longs: Below $96,000 to avoid fake breakouts.
Stop-loss for shorts: Above $100,500 to protect against trend reversals.
Leverage strategy: Conservative, considering high volatility.
With these levels in mind, I am prepared to adapt based on Bitcoin’s reaction to its key support and resistance zones. The next few days will be crucial in determining whether BTC resumes its uptrend or enters a deeper correction phase.
Final Thought:
Bitcoin remains bullish in the long term, but the short-term structure suggests potential for either a continuation rally or retracement to lower supports before resuming its upward trajectory. I will monitor volume and key price action signals to determine the best trade entry.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.