BTC Market Update 6th June
Market Update đź“Š: Bullish Crypto and Extremely Bullish ETH
Ethereum (ETH) is projected to reach $6,000 by the end of the year or possibly sooner.
ETH ETF Trade:
- ETFs have the potential to accumulate over 1 million ETH.
- Currently, 3.3% of ETH’s circulating supply is held in investment vehicles globally.
Trend Analysis:
- ETH investment vehicle flows have been declining steadily since November 2021.
- This decline mirrored Bitcoin (BTC) flows until the U.S. spot ETF hype began.
- Investment flows have remained stagnant for the past 2.5 years.
- A significant trend shift is anticipated following the launch of U.S. spot ETH ETFs.
Forecast for U.S. Spot ETFs:
- Expected Net Inflows: $4 billion in the first five months.
- Basis of Estimate:
- Relative global ETH AUM market share compared to BTC: 28%.
- Comparison between CME’s ETH Open Interest (OI) and BTC: ETH currently at 23%.
- Benchmarking against cumulative spot BTC ETF inflows of $13.8 billion.
Projected Inflows:
- Estimated Net ETH Inflows: $3.1 billion to $4.8 billion.
- Equivalent to: 750,000 to 1,000,000 ETH.
- Represents: 0.65-0.85% of ETH’s circulating supply.
Market Dynamics and Outlook
Estimated inflows of $4 billion to ETH and approximately $3 billion of sell-side pressure in BTC (due to Mt. Gox releases) favor ETH/BTC strength over the summer. While ETH/BTC has been on a linear downtrend for the past two years, the imminent positive catalyst for ETH and corresponding negative catalyst for BTC suggest a potential breakout.
Periods of ETH outperformance tend to be short-lived but very strong. In 2021, ETH's significant outperformance against BTC occurred in a seven-week period from late March to mid-May. Given the current setup, ETH is positioned for summer strength. With the ETH/BTC ratio at 0.054, taking a long position on ETH versus BTC is considered advantageous.
Ethereum (ETH) is projected to reach $6,000 by the end of the year or possibly sooner.
ETH ETF Trade:
- ETFs have the potential to accumulate over 1 million ETH.
- Currently, 3.3% of ETH’s circulating supply is held in investment vehicles globally.
Trend Analysis:
- ETH investment vehicle flows have been declining steadily since November 2021.
- This decline mirrored Bitcoin (BTC) flows until the U.S. spot ETF hype began.
- Investment flows have remained stagnant for the past 2.5 years.
- A significant trend shift is anticipated following the launch of U.S. spot ETH ETFs.
Forecast for U.S. Spot ETFs:
- Expected Net Inflows: $4 billion in the first five months.
- Basis of Estimate:
- Relative global ETH AUM market share compared to BTC: 28%.
- Comparison between CME’s ETH Open Interest (OI) and BTC: ETH currently at 23%.
- Benchmarking against cumulative spot BTC ETF inflows of $13.8 billion.
Projected Inflows:
- Estimated Net ETH Inflows: $3.1 billion to $4.8 billion.
- Equivalent to: 750,000 to 1,000,000 ETH.
- Represents: 0.65-0.85% of ETH’s circulating supply.
Market Dynamics and Outlook
Estimated inflows of $4 billion to ETH and approximately $3 billion of sell-side pressure in BTC (due to Mt. Gox releases) favor ETH/BTC strength over the summer. While ETH/BTC has been on a linear downtrend for the past two years, the imminent positive catalyst for ETH and corresponding negative catalyst for BTC suggest a potential breakout.
Periods of ETH outperformance tend to be short-lived but very strong. In 2021, ETH's significant outperformance against BTC occurred in a seven-week period from late March to mid-May. Given the current setup, ETH is positioned for summer strength. With the ETH/BTC ratio at 0.054, taking a long position on ETH versus BTC is considered advantageous.
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